大变局已经开始了，并且反霸与霸权维护间的博弈正在进行当中，当然，整个大变局不会一蹴而就，会有多次反复，但最终世界朝着多级化发展是主要方向，具体耗时多久不敢说，但今年将进入重要的节点阶段，因此自己打算用这一贴来跟踪大变局，一直到世界新秩序的形成。2025年的主要格局依然是东大与灯塔之间的博弈，先看基本面，灯塔那边在建国同志胜选后，拜登原本应该可以在下台之前多晒晒太阳的，但却大力推出各种针对东大的制裁措施，比如说实体清单又增加了一百多个，对光伏产品大幅加增关税，还有在1月19日对抖音进行最后定夺，不卖就禁等等，这些应该是在建国上台后才进行的，或者是当成筹码的，现在拜登先下手了，这个让建国有点尴尬了，上台后如想继续施压，已经没什么筹码了，如果停下来不作为，将被认为是对东大不够强硬，在下一次大选中被当成证据受到攻击，所以现在拜登看似强硬的措施，实质是在为建国挖坑，对于建国来说，上台后不仅要向东大继续施压，同时还有更重要的事情，就是对民主党的建制派，尤其是那些在上次大选失利后对建国再踏上一只脚的仇家进行报复和清算，至于让制造业回归的论调，光喊口号是不行的，如果要实际操作，光靠建国的四年任期是远远不够的，1991年底苏联解体后，灯塔认为自己是全球最强大的国家，已经没有对手了，于是开始去工业化，经过了三十多年，整个工业体系已经不存在了，当年那些工程师们，简便是还在，也已经退休了，由于后续的人才培养断档，现在就算是举全国之力来恢复制造业，光人才培养，就要近二十年，举一个最简单的例子，疫情后灯塔尝试建立自己的口罩供应链，但在论证时发现了一大堆需要大量投入并且不一定能达标的问题，比如说熔喷布的原料及生产，口罩生产车间的净化需要大量的风机，灯塔有这个技术，但没有使用技术的人才，不说生产过程三班倒，就算是每日两班，也找不齐合适的产业工人，如果不计成本强行推出的话，所有的原料和生产设备都需要进口，并且还要去国外招聘相关的产业工人，所有这些全部就位，最少需要两年的时间，至于产品能否卖出去，则需要灯塔政府出面强推。口罩生产属于制造业当中最基本的项目，灯塔却做不了，所以大概率四年后所谓的制造业回归，说过了也就算是做过了。再来看看东大这边，2024年高层终于承认经济下滑不是短期能够解决的问题，在全球经济向下的周期里，东大如何稳住成了关键，在不断推出相关措施后，房地产开始呈现低位震荡走势，虽然价格还在向下运行，但幅度已经有所放缓，高层在2024年对于拉动内需作出了一些指引，但效果似乎不大，因此2025年这方面的工作会有所加强，具体可能会在合理的时间点推出相关政策，增加老百姓的收入，由此来拉动内需。反霸层面，临近2024年底，东大连续推出先进军事装备，比如两款六代机，带电磁弹射装置的076和预警3000等，之前东大一直秉持着韬光养晦的策略，面对西方媒体的诸多负面宣传也只是谨慎应对，但这个世界还真有那么多傻子，认为东大真要崩溃了，在经过近三十年的高速发展后，东大的实力已经到达一个相当的层面了，于是乎连续推出数款先进的军事装备，让霸权首领灯塔晚上睡不安稳了，据说圣诞节晚上的五角大楼是灯火通明，各部门头头取消休假，紧急磋商应对策略，第一个达成共识的措施就是对琉球驻军减半，部分退守关岛，部分直接退回夏威夷。近两年关于2025中国制造，东大的媒体已经基本不提了，但灯塔的年终报告却有提及，该报告提到，2025中国制造的十个大项已经完成了九个，还剩下一个就是光刻机。在芯片领域，建国上一任开启的制裁叠加拜登的四年加码，造就了东大芯片行业的高速发展，目前28nm以上，基本被东大全面占领，并且开始大量出口，一旦东大的出口形成规模，疯狂的将本会把西方的同类型企业快速卷死，目前东大的策略是切香肠模式，即先把28nm拿下，而后推进一步至14nm，之后是7nm，一段一段切，直至把整个行业全部拿下。写得有点刹不住了，需要赶紧换一页，不然被系统提示超量就麻烦了。

本次论坛升级后数据量大大增加，缓存增加了就会出现页面异常，数据错误的情况。只需要在浏览器中清理历史记录和缓存即可解决。推荐使用谷歌浏览器和Microsoft Edge浏览器。清理方法：设置中找到隐私选项。选择清理删除浏览数据。

本帖最后由 koumyou 于 2022-12-9 00:42 编辑 2022年10月20日。。。和那湖北老板，大大争执了一番，终于还是没有压住火气，最主要加上那个“那个”事件的各种影响，正式辞职进入了所谓的专职交易模式。。。这差不多的两个月时间，想法和现实差别真的太大了，我把所有的帐户都打爆了，先上帐号，再来慢慢学习。。。 SQ的5K USD帐户经过三年多的折腾（2019.6-2022.12），爆掉了。。。 Swissquote Bank SA Account: 635580Name: 1285659Currency: USDLeverage: 1:4002022 December 9, 00:08 Closed Transactions: TicketOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceCommissionTaxesSwapProfit 311483872019.06.14 10:39:31balanceCLIENT S FUNDS TRANSFER ACCORD2 074.00 311891392019.06.17 07:50:30balanceDeposit 1705182151 992.00 311891402019.06.17 07:50:30balanceDeposit 1705182172 092.00 311941122019.06.17 10:26:56buy1.00#sp5002893.210.000.002019.06.17 11:05:352894.130.000.000.000.92 311940772019.06.17 10:26:23buy1.00#gb1007356.530.000.002019.06.17 11:05:597352.890.000.000.00-4.58 311941142019.06.17 10:27:03buy1.00#nas1007492.570.000.002019.06.17 11:06:007499.500.000.000.006.93 311940672019.06.17 10:26:05buy1.00#dj3026135.450.000.002019.06.17 11:06:1026145.090.000.000.009.64 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14:03:3826521.360.000.000.001.67 338755952019.09.03 07:03:12balanceAug Rebates104.99 339011862019.09.03 15:33:02buy1.00#dj3026126.780.000.002019.09.03 15:33:1326129.080.000.000.002.30 343618372019.09.16 08:53:56buy1.00#dj3027086.700.000.002019.09.16 10:52:5927090.920.000.000.004.22 344440272019.09.17 10:40:19buy1.00#dj3027057.010.000.002019.09.17 11:21:3027064.180.000.000.007.17 344489292019.09.17 13:45:25sell1.00#dj3027055.680.000.002019.09.17 13:47:0627053.970.000.000.001.71 347403442019.09.25 17:03:12sell1.00#dj3026948.460.000.002019.09.27 02:30:1726876.560.000.00-0.7071.90 351373972019.10.04 10:42:22sell1.00#dj3026162.7826156.040.002019.10.04 12:06:0826154.630.000.000.008.15 356957472019.10.22 18:34:43buy1.00#dj3026921.7526843.000.002019.10.22 18:47:2026922.060.000.000.000.31 357327952019.10.23 17:02:37buy5.00#dj3026861.4426870.0226942.422019.10.23 17:23:2026881.730.000.000.00101.45 358761172019.10.29 14:46:29buy1.00#dj3027086.850.000.002019.10.29 14:47:4027087.160.000.000.000.31 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367415532019.12.02 10:51:26buy0.40gbpusd1.290981.289751.292852019.12.02 11:15:041.290760.000.000.00-8.80 367445672019.12.02 12:45:53buy0.10gbpusd1.291341.290310.000002019.12.02 13:15:021.291620.000.000.002.80 368915602019.12.05 15:45:42buy1.05gbpusd1.315191.313390.000002019.12.05 15:47:471.315590.000.000.0042.00 369480372019.12.09 10:10:32buy1.00gbpusd1.316271.314700.000002019.12.09 10:29:131.316340.000.000.007.00 369719832019.12.10 09:25:04sell1.00gbpusd1.315001.316620.000002019.12.10 09:25:551.314950.000.000.005.00 369731142019.12.10 10:00:35buy1.00gbpusd1.316450.000000.000002019.12.10 10:01:001.317080.000.000.0063.00 370395652019.12.12 09:32:20sell1.13gbpusd1.320881.322511.318332019.12.12 10:31:161.320550.000.000.0037.29 370433112019.12.12 12:20:48buy0.10gbpusd1.315931.310410.000002019.12.12 12:23:071.316060.000.000.001.30 370462532019.12.12 14:30:14buy0.10gbpusd1.315791.312830.000002019.12.12 14:34:031.315680.000.000.00-1.10 371520902019.12.16 12:15:21sell0.47gbpusd1.336321.340010.000002019.12.16 12:48:241.337060.000.000.00-34.78 371548752019.12.16 14:39:28sell0.50gbpusd1.334851.337910.000002019.12.16 14:51:081.334640.000.000.0010.50 371716682019.12.17 07:30:52sell0.55gbpusd1.326981.330350.000002019.12.17 07:51:101.326240.000.000.0040.70 371745362019.12.17 09:19:01sell1.00gbpusd1.322720.000000.000002019.12.17 09:19:101.322070.000.000.0065.00 371755852019.12.17 09:26:37sell1.00gbpusd1.318310.000000.000002019.12.17 09:27:311.318320.000.000.00-1.00 372082002019.12.18 07:01:38buy0.79gbpusd1.311071.308500.000002019.12.18 07:40:571.310200.000.000.00-68.73 372089782019.12.18 08:04:25buy0.50gbpusd1.311451.307880.000002019.12.18 08:09:121.311710.000.000.0013.00 372089282019.12.18 08:00:44buy0.20gbpusd1.312031.307140.000002019.12.18 08:32:301.311970.000.000.00-1.20 372091332019.12.18 08:15:02buy0.50gbpusd1.311471.308170.000002019.12.18 08:32:311.311970.000.000.0025.00 372093542019.12.18 08:27:42buy0.50gbpusd1.311681.308680.000002019.12.18 08:32:331.312000.000.000.0016.00 372091652019.12.18 08:17:15buy1.00gbpusd1.310631.308510.000002019.12.18 08:33:061.312100.000.000.00147.00 372101012019.12.18 08:59:26sell0.10gbpusd1.308690.000000.000002019.12.18 08:59:371.308660.000.000.000.30 372107312019.12.18 09:18:03sell0.52gbpusd1.309651.313090.000002019.12.18 09:22:151.311050.000.000.00-72.80 372107652019.12.18 09:21:18sell0.20gbpusd1.310601.313130.000002019.12.18 09:22:161.311010.000.000.00-8.20 372114512019.12.18 09:56:11buy0.10gbpusd1.309891.310570.000002019.12.18 10:43:271.311900.000.000.0020.10 372376102019.12.19 07:31:07sell0.10gbpusd1.308081.309080.000002019.12.19 07:53:121.309110.000.000.00-10.30 373075192019.12.23 09:00:09buy0.40gbpusd1.302481.297690.000002019.12.23 09:02:141.302620.000.000.005.60 373079552019.12.23 09:10:22buy0.44gbpusd1.301711.297750.000002019.12.23 10:07:341.301760.000.000.002.20 374227422019.12.30 16:21:10buy0.33gbpusd1.312191.307540.000002019.12.31 08:01:011.311380.000.00-2.16-26.73 374228562019.12.30 16:56:13buy0.27gbpusd1.311461.305620.000002019.12.31 08:01:021.311380.000.00-1.77-2.16 374388552019.12.31 09:24:25buy0.57gbpusd1.313211.310250.000002019.12.31 10:04:521.313600.000.000.0022.23 374390752019.12.31 09:38:27buy0.69gbpusd1.312531.312680.000002019.12.31 10:07:491.313720.000.000.0082.11