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德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.55%以下，触及6月25日以来的最低水平，因为投资者在美中贸易紧张局势升级和美国银行业信贷压力的新迹象下寻求安全。周四，北京指责华盛顿对其稀土出口管制“引发恐慌”，并拒绝了撤销这些措施的呼吁。与此同时，在两家美国地区银行披露与不良和潜在欺诈贷款有关的损失后，全球银行股暴跌，加深了人们对全球信贷市场健康状况的担忧。作为回应，货币市场加大了对欧洲央行和美联储降息的押注。交易员现在估计，到2026年7月，欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性为80%，预计到明年年底，关键利率将达到1.8%左右。与此同时，预计美联储将在今年的最后几次会议上至少降息25个基点。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 2.55%, touching its lowest level since June 25, as investors sought safety amid escalating US-China trade tensions and fresh signs of credit stress in the US banking sector. On Thursday, Beijing accused Washington of “stoking panic” over its rare earth export controls and rejected calls to roll back the measures. Meanwhile, bank shares worldwide tumbled after two US regional banks revealed losses tied to bad and potentially fraudulent loans, deepening concerns over the health of global credit markets. In response, money markets increased bets on interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Traders now price in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by July 2026, with the key rate expected to reach around 1.8% by the end of next year. The Fed, meanwhile, is seen delivering at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the final meetings of the year.

恒生指数周五下跌641点，跌幅2.5%，收于25247点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，在广泛下跌的情况下创下六周来的最低水平。美国地区银行信贷压力的迹象令投资者感到不安，全球情绪恶化，而华盛顿和北京之间新的贸易摩擦增加了压力。所有板块均下跌，科技股下跌约4%，其次是消费、金融和房地产股。Khoon Group创下历史新低，此前美国政府当局对比亚迪实施了某些制裁，比亚迪因设计和电池安全问题进行了最大规模的汽车召回，股价下跌4.3%。其他跌幅较大的公司包括中芯国际（-7.2%）、Pop-Mart International（-4.6%）、XPeng（-4.4%）、美团（-4.4.4%）和小米公司（-3.7%）。本周，该指数下跌近4%，这是连续第二次下跌，原因是在下周的一次关键领导层会议之前，以及包括第三季度GDP、9月份零售额和工业产出在内的一系列中国数据，该指数越来越谨慎。

The Hang Seng tumbled 641 points, or 2.5%, to close at 25,247 on Friday, extending losses from the prior session and marking its lowest level in six weeks amid broad-based declines. Global sentiment soured after signs of credit stress at U.S. regional banks rattled investors, while renewed trade frictions between Washington and Beijing added pressure. All sectors fell, with tech sliding around 4%, followed by consumer, financial, and property stocks. Khoon Group hit a record low after certain sanctions by government authorities in the U.S. BYD lost 4.3% following its largest vehicle recall over design and battery safety issues. Other notable losers included SMIC (-7.2%), Pop Mart Intl. (-4.6%), XPeng (-4.4%), Meituan (-4.4%), and Xiaomi Corp. (-3.7%). For the week, the index fell near 4%, its second straight decline, on mounting cautioun ahead of a key leadership gathering next week, as well as a slew of Chinese data, including Q3 GDP, September retail sales, and industrial output.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率在0.79左右走强，为9月中旬以来的最高点，在两家地区银行报告不良贷款后，投资者纷纷涌向避险资产，对美国金融体系的担忧加剧。美中贸易紧张局势、美国政府持续停摆以及美联储降息预期也支撑着人民币汇率。在国内，瑞士经济增长前景减弱，此前国家经济事务秘书处（SECO）以美国关税和法郎走强为由，将2026年国内生产总值预测下调至0.9%。预计2025年和2026年的通货膨胀率将分别保持在0.2%和0.5%，这增强了人们对瑞士国家银行（SNB）将在货币政策上保持谨慎立场的预期。

The Swiss franc was firmer around 0.79 per USD, its highest since mid-September, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over the US financial system after two regional banks reported bad loans. The currency also remained supported by US-China trade tensions, the ongoing US government shutdown, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Domestically, the Swiss growth outlook weakened after the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9%, citing US tariffs and a strong franc. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy.

英镑兑美元延续连胜。英镑兑美元延续连胜

Pound Sterling extends winning streak against US Dollar.Pound Sterling extends winning streak against US Dollar