美国6个月期国债 (US6M) 加自选

继前一天创下历史新高后，美国股市周四收盘小幅下跌。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.2%，道琼斯指数在盘中短暂触及40051点的历史高点后，收盘下跌0.1%。最近的经济数据喜忧参半，包括首次申请失业救济人数下降，进出口价格高于预期，住房开工和建筑许可令人失望，以及工业生产停滞。材料和非必需消费品行业是最大的落后者，而主要消费品表现出色，这得益于沃尔玛季度业绩超出预期后股价上涨7%。好市多也创下历史新高，首次达到794美元。相比之下，Deere&Co在下调今年的指导意见后下跌4.7%，思科下跌2.7%，尽管公布了乐观的季度业绩。与此同时，表情包股票GameStop和AMC连续第二天下跌，分别下跌30%和15.3%。

US stocks finished a volatile session slightly lower on Thursday, following the previous day’s record highs. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each lost 0.2%, while the Dow Jones ended 0.1% lower after briefly touching an all-time high of 40,051 during the day. Recent economic data was mixed, including a decline in initial jobless claims, higher-than-expected import and export prices, disappointing housing starts and building permits, and a stall in industrial production.The materials and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest laggards, while consumer staples outperformed, driven by a 7% jump in Walmart shares after the retailer's quarterly results exceeded expectations. Costco also closed at a record high, reaching $794 for the first time. In contrast, Deere & Co fell by 4.7% after cutting this year’s guidance, and Cisco declined by 2.7% despite reporting upbeat quarterly results. Meanwhile, meme stocks GameStop and AMC fell for a second day, shedding 30% and 15.3%, respectively.

美国股市在下午的交易中在平线附近波动，三大股指均徘徊在历史新高。早些时候，道琼斯指数短暂达到40051点的历史高点，受降息预期的支撑。然而，最近的经济数据喜忧参半，包括首次申请失业救济人数下降，进出口价格高于预期，住房开工和建筑许可令人失望，以及工业生产停滞。材料和能源行业是最大的落后者，而非必需消费品表现出色，这得益于沃尔玛季度业绩超出预期后股价上涨7%。相比之下，Deere&Co在下调今年的指导后下跌了4%以上，Meta下跌了1%以上，这与科技股的强劲势头形成了对比。思科也下跌了2.8%，尽管公布了乐观的季度业绩。与此同时，表情包股票GameStop和AMC连续第二天下跌，分别下跌22.7%和12%

Stocks in the US were swinging near the flatline in the afternoon trading, with all three major averages hovering at record highs. Earlier, the Dow Jones briefly reached an all-time high of 40,051, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts. However, recent economic data was mixed, including a decline in initial jobless claims, higher-than-expected import and export prices, disappointing housing starts and building permits, and a stall in industrial production. The materials and energy sectors were the biggest laggards, while consumer discretionary outperformed, driven by a 7% jump in Walmart shares after the retailer's quarterly results exceeded expectations. In contrast, Deere & Co fell by over 4% after cutting this year’s guidance, and Meta lost over 1%, weighing against the stronger momentum for tech stocks. Cisco also declined by 2.8% despite reporting upbeat quarterly results. Meanwhile, meme stocks GameStop and AMC fell for a second day, dropping 22.7% and 12%, respectively

美国10年期国债收益率略高于4.37%，从周三触及的一个月低点4.33%反弹，市场继续评估潜在通胀，以了解美联储的前景。4月，美国进口价格较上月飙升0.9%，远高于0.3%的预期，这引发了人们的担忧，即大宗商品成本上升可能会将通胀控制在一个顽固的水平，并阻止美联储在第三季度前降息。另一方面，首次申请失业救济人数仍远高于今年的平均水平，建筑许可证连续第二个月下降，5月份的地方活动指标未达到支持联邦公开市场委员会鸽派的预期。70%的市场现在为美联储在9月开始其宽松周期做好了准备，63%的市场预计今年会有两次或两次以上的降息。尽管美联储降息的预期迫在眉睫，但新数据显示，中国第一季度抛售了近550亿美元的美国国债，创下抛售历史新高。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged above 4.37%, rebounding from the one-month low of 4.33% touched on Wednesday as markets continued to assess underlying inflation for hints on the Fed’s outlook. Import prices to the US surged by 0.9% from the prior month in April, well above expectations of 0.3%, to raise concerns that higher commodity costs may hold inflation at a stubborn level and prevent the Federal Reserve from delivering a rate cut by the third quarter. On the other hand, initial unemployment claims remained well above this year’s average, building permits fell for a second month, and local activity gauges for May missed expectations to support the doves in the FOMC. 70% of the market is now positioned for the Fed to kick off its loosening cycle in September, and 63% expect two or more cuts this year. Despite looming expectations of Fed cuts, new data showed that China offloaded nearly $55 billion in US Treasuries in the first quarter, a record-high selloff.

截至5月16日，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率比前一周下降了7个基点，降至7.02%，达到五周来的最低水平。房地美首席经济学家Sam Khater表示：“抵押贷款利率连续第二周下降。”。“鉴于通胀略有缓解的消息，10年期国债收益率下降，导致抵押贷款利率下降。利率的下降虽然很小，但可能会为潜在购房者的预算提供更多的回旋余地。”相比之下，去年同期30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率为6.39%。

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped by 7 basis points from the previous week to 7.02% as of May 16th, reaching the lowest level in five weeks. “Mortgage rates decreased for the second consecutive week.” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Given the news that inflation eased slightly, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped, leading to lower mortgage rates. The decrease in rates, albeit small, may provide a bit more wiggle room in the budgets of prospective homebuyers.” In comparison, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.39% during the same period last year.