美国7年期国债 (US7Y) 加自选

周四，美国股票期货几乎没有变化，前一天的强劲上涨使三大股指创下历史新高。交易员们正在等待今天公布的进一步经济数据，包括索赔报告、工业生产、住房开工、建筑许可证以及几位美联储官员的评论。昨天，通胀和零售销售数据引发了人们对美联储今年将开始降息的押注。在盈利方面，迪尔公司下调全年盈利预期后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌超过5%。另一方面，思科在季度业绩乐观后上涨2.7%。沃尔玛股价上涨4.5%，此前其业绩超过分析师预期。与此同时，表情包股票GameStop（-13.6%）和AMC（-11%）连续第二天下跌。在大型股中，微软和Alphabet的股价持平，而苹果（0.2%）、英伟达（0.7%）和亚马逊（0.2%）在开盘前上涨。

Stock futures in the US were little changed on Thursday, following strong gains the day before that sent the three major averages to record levels. Traders await further economic data due today, including the claims report, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, and comments from several Fed officials. Yesterday, inflation and retail sales figures prompted bets the Fed will start cutting the interest rate this year. On the earnings front, shares of Deere & Company fell more than 5% in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year earnings outlook. On the other hand, Cisco added 2.7% after upbeat quarterly results. Walmart rose 4.5% after its results topped analysts estimates. Meanwhile, meme-stocks GameStop (-13.6%) and AMC (-11%) declined for a second day. Among megacaps, Microsoft and Alphabet traded around the flatline while Apple (0.2%), Nvidia (0.7%) and Amazon (0.2%) booked gains before the opening bell.

美国10年期国债收益率降至4.33%，为一个多月来的最低水平，此前最近的数据强化了美联储今年将开始降息的观点。年度通胀和核心利率如预期一样放缓，CPI较3月份上涨0.3%，低于0.4%的预测。PPI发布的情况喜忧参半，因为4月份的数据高于预测，但3月份的数据被大幅下调。此外，零售销售意外停滞，未能达到预期的0.4%的增长。73%的市场现在为美联储在9月开始其宽松周期做好了准备，近84%的市场预计11月会有所放松。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.33%, the lowest level in over a month, after recent data reinforced the view the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year. Annual inflation and core rates slowed as expected and the CPI rose 0.3% from March, below forecasts of 0.4%. The PPI release painted a mixed scenario, as the April print came above forecasts but the March data was revised sharply lower. In addition, retail sales unexpectedly stalled, failing to meet the anticipated 0.4% increase. 73% of the market is now positioned for the Fed to kick off its loosening cycle in September, and nearly 84% expect an ease in November.

美元指数周四跌至104.2左右，徘徊在五周来的最低水平，因为美国4月通胀放缓，强化了人们对美联储将于9月开始降息的预期。美国的核心通胀率从3月份的3.8%降至4月份的年化3.6%，与市场预测一致，为三年来的最低水平。美国4月零售销售数据弱于预期，也进一步证明经济正在放缓。投资者现在展望周四的每周失业救济申请数据和费城联储制造业指数。美元全面下跌，但随着美国和日本收益率之间的差距缩小，美元兑日元继续走弱。

The dollar index fell to around 104.2 on Thursday, hovering at its lowest levels in five weeks as US inflation slowed in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in September. The core inflation rate in the US slowed to an annualized 3.6% in April from 3.8% in March, matching market forecasts and posting the lowest reading in three years. Weaker-than-expected US retail sales figures for April also provided further evidence that the economy was slowing. Investors now look ahead to weekly jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The dollar nursed losses across the board, but continued to weaken versus the yen as the gap between US and Japanese yields narrowed.

美国股指期货周四小幅走高，此前一个交易日主要股指因CPI疲软而收于历史新高。在周三的常规交易中，道琼斯指数上涨0.88%，标准普尔500指数上涨1.17%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.4%。标普11个板块中有10个上涨，科技、房地产和医疗保健板块领涨。主要科技公司表现强劲，如英伟达（3.6%）、SMCI（15.8%）、AMD（4.3%）、MicroStrategy（15.9%）和戴尔（11.2%）。这些举措出台之际，4月份的通胀数据显示，整体和核心年度通胀都有所放缓，零售销售意外停滞，这增强了人们对美联储可能在9月份开始降息的预期。最近的反弹也受到强劲的企业财报季的推动。投资者现在展望周四的每周失业救济申请数据和费城联储制造业指数。沃尔玛（Walmart）、安德玛（Under Armour）和百度（Baidu）也将获得收益。

US stock futures edged higher on Thursday after the major averages closed at record highs in the previous session on soft CPI readings. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow gained 0.88%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.17% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.4%. Ten out of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher, led by technology, real estate and healthcare. Strong gains were seen from major tech names such as Nvidia (3.6%), SMCI (15.8%), AMD (4.3%), MicroStrategy (15.9%) and Dell (11.2%). Those moves came as April's inflation data showed that both headline and core annual inflation slowed, and retail sales unexpectedly stalled, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September. The recent rally has also been fueled by a strong corporate earnings season. Investors now look ahead to weekly jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. Earnings are also set to come from Walmart, Under Armour and Baidu.