澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率周三升至4.25%，此前在上一交易日触及一个多月低点，投资者正在等待储备银行下周的政策决定。在一系列疲软的经济指标之后，市场已经完全消化了央行降息25个基点的预期。周二，澳新银行和就业平台Indeed的数据显示，7月份的招聘广告下降了1%，这加剧了劳动力市场降温的迹象。单独的数据还显示，6月份家庭支出略有增长，表明消费需求疲软。此前，上月有报道称通胀放缓，就业数据令人失望。与此同时，今天早些时候公布的数据显示，7月份澳大利亚工业出现复苏迹象，主要受商业服务业的推动，而制造业仍在苦苦挣扎。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.25% on Wednesday after hitting a more than one-month low in the previous session, with investors awaiting the Reserve Bank’s policy decision next week. Markets are already fully priced for a 25bps rate cut from the central bank, following a string of weak economic indicators. On Tuesday, data from ANZ and employment platform Indeed showed that job advertisements declined by 1% in July — adding to signs of a cooling labor market. Separate figures also revealed a modest increase in household spending in June, pointing to subdued consumer demand. These follow last month’s reports of slowing inflation and a disappointing jobs data. Meanwhile, data released earlier today indicated signs of recovery in Australian industry in July, driven largely by business services, while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle.

周三，澳元走强至0.648美元左右，延续了前一交易日的涨势，因为对美联储9月份降息的押注越来越多，提振了风险情绪。在美国经济疲软的迹象下，市场现在预计有90%的机会放松。在贸易方面，特朗普总统威胁要对药品进口和半导体征收高额关税。然而，他表示，在8月的最后期限之前，可能会延长与中国的贸易休战，并表示协议“非常接近”。与此同时，由于本周公布的数据很少，澳元可能会挣扎，因为市场完全消化了8月12日澳大利亚储备银行降息25个基点至3.60%的消息。然而，随着央行发出谨慎放松的信号，投资者普遍预计9月份将暂停，任何进一步的削减都可能取决于持续的通货紧缩。人们的注意力将转向10月29日公布的第三季度CPI和月度就业数据，以寻找失业率持续上升的迹象。

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.648 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as growing bets on a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September lifted risk sentiment. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of easing amid signs of a weakening US economy. On the trade front, President Trump threatened to impose steep tariffs on pharmaceutical imports and semiconductors. However, he signaled a possible trade truce extension with China ahead of the August deadline, saying a deal is “very close”. Meanwhile, with little data due this week, the Aussie may struggle as markets fully price in a quarter-point RBA rate cut to 3.60% on August 12. However, with the central bank signaling a cautious approach to easing, investors largely expect a pause in September, with any further cut likely hinging on continued disinflation. Attention will turn to the Q3 CPI due October 29 and monthly jobs data for signs of a sustained rise in unemployment.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三上涨0.5%，收于8810点以上，延续了前一交易日接近历史新高的纪录，因为对国内和全球降息的预期不断增长，继续提振该指数。对美联储9月降息的押注不断上升（目前被视为94%的可能性），提振了全球风险偏好，而澳大利亚掉期交易显示，市场完全预计澳大利亚储备银行下周将降息25个基点。与此同时，华尔街隔夜抛售后，谨慎情绪挥之不去，疲软的数据重新引发了滞胀担忧，特朗普总统提议对药品和半导体征收高额关税。然而，他表示，在8月的最后期限之前，可能会延长与中国的贸易休战，并表示协议“非常接近”。在企业方面，黄金股领涨，在金价上涨的情况下上涨2.6%，达到两周高点，其中北方之星上涨3.4%，纽蒙特上涨2.2%。此外，权重金融股上涨0.8%，主要银行CBA领涨（1.3%）。对利率敏感的房地产股也上涨了0.7%。

The S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.5% to above 8,810 on Wednesday, extending the prior session’s record close to a new all-time high, as growing expectations of domestic and global rate cuts continued to boost the index. Rising bets on a US Fed cut in September—now seen as a 94% chance—have lifted global risk appetite, while Australian swaps show markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point RBA cut next week. Meanwhile, caution lingered after an overnight Wall Street selloff, as weak data revived stagflation fears and President Trump proposed steep tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. However, he signaled a possible trade truce extension with China ahead of the August deadline, saying a deal is “very close”. On the corporate side, gold stocks led the charge, up 2.6% to a two-week high amid higher bullion, with Northern Star jumping 3.4% and Newmont 2.2%. Additionally, heavyweight financials rose 0.8%, led by top lender CBA (1.3%). Rate-sensitive real estate stocks also advanced 0.7%.

7月份，澳大利亚制造业艾集团工业指数上涨4.9点，至-23.9点，显示略有改善，但表明持续深度收缩。制造商指出，持续的成本压力、疲软的需求、政策挑战和日益激烈的海外竞争是主要障碍。贸易风险和能源成本上升继续阻碍复苏，使该行业落后于工业经济的其他部分。化工和矿产等上游行业有所改善，尽管供应链和劳动力挑战持续存在，但后者仍受益于与基础设施相关的订单增加。机械和设备涨幅最大，尽管全球不确定性和有限的资本支出仍然是逆风。与此同时，受关税相关出口不确定性、投入成本上升和当地需求疲软的拖累，食品、饮料和TCF行业进一步走弱。

The Ai Group Industry Index for Australia's manufacturing sector rose by 4.9 points to -23.9 in July, showing slight improvement but signaling continued deep contraction. Manufacturers cited persistent cost pressures, weak demand, policy challenges, and rising overseas competition as key obstacles. Trade risks and elevated energy costs continue to hinder recovery, leaving the sector lagging behind other parts of the industrial economy. Upstream sectors like chemicals and minerals showed some improvement, with the latter benefiting from stronger infrastructure-related orders despite ongoing supply chain and labor challenges. Machinery and equipment saw the biggest gain, though global uncertainty and limited capital spending remained headwinds. Meanwhile, the food, beverages, and TCF sector weakened further, dragged down by tariff-related export uncertainty, rising input costs, and softer local demand.