卢比可能因关税、资金外流而进一步走弱；债券关注财政透明度。印度卢比在上周五跌至历史最低点后，本周可能仍将面临压力，美国关税和投资组合流动疲软加剧了压力，而政府债券则为财政发展做好了准备。

Rupee may weaken further on tariffs, outflows; bonds to eye fiscal clarity.The Indian rupee, after falling to a lifetime low last Friday, will likely remain under pressure this week with U.S. tariffs and sluggish portfolio flows piling on the pressure, while government bonds brace for fiscal developments.

基准韩国综合股价指数周一下跌0.4%，至3170点左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，受美国科技股大幅抛售的压力。鉴于韩国严重依赖对美国的出口，该指数反映了华尔街的疲软，尤其是科技股，三星电子（-1.9%）和SK海力士（-3.8%）均有所回落。疲软的国内数据和关税担忧加剧了谨慎的基调，8月份制造业采购经理人指数连续第七个月收缩至48.3，特朗普10%的基准关税打压了贸易情绪。与此同时，8月份出口同比仅增长1.3%，低于3%的增长预测，因为对美国的出口因高额关税而暴跌12%。尽管如此，半导体仍在贸易报告中大放异彩，芯片出口激增27.1%，达到创纪录的151亿美元，汽车（+8.6%）和船舶（+11.8%）也有所增长。在企业方面，化工和金融股也与芯片制造商一起表现不佳，而现代汽车（+0.7%）小幅上涨，提供了适度的支撑。

The benchmark KOSPI fell 0.4% to around 3,170 on Monday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by a sharp selloff in US tech stocks. Given South Korea’s heavy reliance on exports to the US, the index mirrored Wall Street weakness, particularly in tech with Samsung Electronics (-1.9%) and SK Hynix (-3.8%) retreating. Soft domestic data and tariff concerns added to cautious tone, with the manufacturing PMI contracting for a seventh month at 48.3 in August and Trump's 10% baseline tariffs weighed on trade sentiment. Meanwhile, August exports rose just 1.3% year-on-year, missing forecasts of 3% growth, as shipments to the US plunged 12% on steep duties. Still, semiconductors shone in the trade report, with chip exports surging 27.1% to a record $15.1 billion, alongside gains in autos (+8.6%) and ships (+11.8%). On the corporate front, chemical and financial shares also underperformed alongside chipmakers, while Hyundai Motor (+0.7%) edged higher, offering modest support.

周一，美元指数徘徊在97.8左右，接近一个月低点，交易员们正在等待本周可能影响美联储下一个政策决定的一系列劳动力市场数据。主要报告包括周五的8月就业数据，以及失业率、职位空缺和私人工资数据。投资者还权衡了周五的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数证实了价格持续上涨，并为降息前景增加了不确定性。尽管如此，市场预计美联储本月晚些时候将降息25个基点的可能性约为88%。在贸易方面，一家联邦上诉法院裁定，唐纳德·特朗普总统的大部分互惠关税都是非法的，让政府在10月14日之前向美国最高法院上诉。由于美国市场因劳动节假期休市，交易活动预计将放缓。

The dollar index hovered around 97.8 on Monday, near one-month lows, as traders awaited a series of labor market releases this week that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Key reports include Friday’s August jobs data, alongside figures on unemployment, job openings, and private payrolls. Investors also weighed Friday’s PCE price index, which confirmed continued price increases and added uncertainty to the outlook for rate cuts. Still, markets are pricing in about an 88% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points later this month. On the trade front, a federal appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal, giving the administration until October 14 to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Trading activity is expected to be muted, with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday.

2025年第二季度，澳大利亚的商业库存环比增长0.1%，与上一季度向上修正的1.2%增长相比大幅放缓。这标志着自2024年第三季度收缩以来最弱的扩张，主要是由于制造商（第一季度为0.2%对1.7%）和矿商（4.8%对5.0%）的库存增长放缓。此外，批发商的库存下降（-1.7%对0.2%），零售商的库存继续下降（-0.5%对-0.3%）。相比之下，电力供应商的库存水平加快（6.9%对4.8%），住宿和餐饮服务行业的库存水平反弹（0.6%对-0.5%）。与去年同期相比，企业库存每年增长0.8%。

Australia’s business inventories rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, a sharp slowdown from the upwardly revised 1.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. This marked the weakest expansion since the contraction in Q3 2024, primarily driven by easing inventory growth among manufacturers (0.2% vs 1.7% in Q1) and miners (4.8% vs 5.0%). Moreover, inventories slipped for wholesalers (-1.7% vs 0.2%) and continued to fall for retailers (-0.5% vs -0.3%). In contrast, inventory levels accelerated for electricity providers (6.9% vs 4.8%) and rebounded for the accommodation and food services sector (0.6% vs -0.5%). On an annual basis, business inventories increased by 0.8% compared to the same quarter last year.