美元/加元 (USDCAD) 加自选

美国股市期货周一下跌，三大股指期货合约下跌约0.5%，此前周五就业报告强劲，涨幅强劲。交易员现在等待本周公布的关键CPI和PPI数据，以评估价格压力的演变情况。市场认为，美联储在11月降息25个基点的可能性接近85%，而不是再次大幅降息50个基点。与此同时，本周晚些时候，随着摩根大通、富国银行和纽约梅隆银行的报告，财报季即将拉开帷幕。大型股在盘前交易中处于亏损状态，即苹果（-1.3%）、微软（-0.4%）、英伟达（-0.7%）、亚马逊（-1.8%）、Meta（-0.2%）和Alphabet（-0.5%）。另一方面，在彭博社报道激进投资者Starboard Value入股辉瑞约10亿美元后，辉瑞股价在开盘前飙升了3%以上。

Stock futures in the US were lower on Monday, with contracts on the three major averages losing around 0.5%, following strong gains on Friday after a strong jobs report. Traders now await key CPI and PPI data due this week to assess how price pressures are evolving. Markets are assigning a nearly 85% chance the Fed will cut deliver a 25bps rate cut in November rather than another jumbo 50bps reduction. At the same time, the earnings season is about to kick off later in the week with reports from big banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank Of New York Mellon. Megacaps were in the red in premarket trading, namely Apple (-1.3%), Microsoft (-0.4%), Nvidia (-0.7%), Amazon (-1.8%), Meta (-0.2%) and Alphabet (-0.5%). On the other hand, Pfizer soared more than 3% before the opening bell after Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of about $1 billion in the firm.

10年期美国国债收益率在上周飙升后，周一保持在略低于4%的水平，徘徊在两个月来的最高点，因为一份稳健的美国就业报告缓和了对美联储降息的预期。9月份非农就业人数比上个月增加了25.4万人，超出了14万人的预期，而失业率意外从4.2%降至4.1%。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场已经排除了美联储在11月再次降息50个基点的可能性，同时认为有95%的可能性会适度降息25桶/日。投资者现在期待周三最新的美联储会议纪要和周四的消费者价格指数报告，以进一步指导利率前景。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held just below 4% on Monday after surging last week, hovering at a two-month high as a solid US jobs report tempered expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 from the previous month in September, soaring past expectations for a 140,000 increase, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Markets have priced out any chance of another 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed in November, while assigning a 95% probability of a more modest 25 bpd reduction, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now look ahead to the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday to guide the rates outlook further.

周一，美元指数保持在102.5左右，此前美国就业报告强于预期，促使市场排除了美联储11月再次降息50个基点的可能性，导致美元指数在上一交易日飙升0.5%。周五的数据显示，9月份非农就业人数增加了25.4万人，超过了14万人的预期，而失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场现在认为11月降息25个基点的可能性约为95%，政策利率不变的可能性约5%。投资者现在期待周三最新的美联储会议纪要和周四的消费者价格指数报告，以进一步指导利率前景。在中东紧张局势加剧之际，美元还受益于安全现金流入的增加。

The dollar index held around 102.5 on Monday after surging half a percent in the previous session following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that prompted markets to price out any chances of another 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. Data on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 in September, surpassing expectations of 140,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Markets now see around a 95% chance of a more modest 25 bps rate cut in November and about a 5% odds of no change in the policy rate, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now look ahead to the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday to guide the rates outlook further. The dollar also benefited from increased safe-haven inflows amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.

周一，由于投资者在未来一周寻找新的市场催化剂，美国股指期货几乎没有变化。上周，主要股指在小幅上涨之前出现了一些波动，道琼斯指数上涨0.09%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.22%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.1%。这些举措出台之际，华尔街周五反弹，此前一份强于预期的就业报告提振了人们对美联储可能实现软着陆的希望。尽管如此，对即将到来的美国总统大选的谨慎态度以及中东紧张局势的加剧仍让投资者感到紧张。市场现在期待周三最新的美联储会议纪要和周四的消费者价格指数报告来指导利率前景。在企业方面，百事可乐、达美、贝莱德、摩根大通和富国银行等公司本周将公布收益。

US stock futures were little changed on Monday as investors look for fresh market catalysts in the week ahead. Last week, the major averages saw some volatility before grinding out modest gains, with the Dow rising 0.09%, the S&P 500 adding 0.22% and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.1%. Those moves came as Wall Street rallied on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report bolstered hopes that the Federal Reserve may achieve a soft landing. Still, caution surrounding the upcoming US presidential election and heightened tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge. Markets now look ahead to the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday to guide the rates outlook. On the corporate front, earnings are set to come this week from PepsiCo, Delta, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, among others.