美元/加元 (USDCAD) 加自选

2025年6月，美国NFIB小企业乐观指数为98.6，5月份低于98.8，预测为98.7，但略高于51年平均水平98。报告库存过剩的受访者大幅增加是该指数下降的主要原因。19%的小企业主表示税收是他们最重要的问题，比5月份上升了一个百分点，再次成为首要问题。上一次税收达到19%是在2021年7月。此外，许多其他人仍然担心劳动力质量和高昂的劳动力成本。预期商业环境改善的所有者净百分比下降了3个百分点，至22%。预计实际销售量增加的业主净百分比下降了3个百分点，至7%，21%的业主计划在未来6个月进行资本支出，比5月份下降了1个百分点。与此同时，不确定性指数下降了5个百分点，降至89。

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US came in at 98.6 in June 2025, below 98.8 in May and forecasts of 98.7, but holding slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. 19% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021. In addition, many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell three points to 22%. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell three points to 7% and 21% plan capital outlays in the next six months, down one point from May. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index decreased by five points to 89.

美元抛售创多年新低！。由于对另一场关税战的新担忧，金价从3300美元区域反弹。随着日本成为下一个关税上调的国家，我们会看到黄金价格再次飙升吗？

Fresh Dollar Sell-Off Hitting Multi-Year Lows!.Gold bounced away from the $3300 area with fresh concerns over another tariff war. With Japan the next in line to have tariffs increased, will we see another surge on the yellow metal?

周二，美国10年期国债收益率稳定在4.38%左右，保持两周高点，因为投资者权衡了最新的贸易发展和经济数据。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布了14个尚未与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家的最新关税税率，其中包括日本和韩国等主要出口国，这两个国家都将面临25%的关税。他还签署了一项行政命令，将互惠关税的最后期限从7月9日延长至8月1日，以便有更多时间进行谈判。此外，在金砖国家在巴西举行峰会之际，特朗普威胁要对与“金砖国家反美政策”一致的国家额外征收10%的关税。与此同时，美国6月就业报告强于预期，抑制了近期降息的预期，国债收益率在最近几个交易日攀升。市场在很大程度上已经消化了美联储7月份降息的可能性。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady around 4.38% on Tuesday, maintaining a two-week high as investors weighed the latest trade developments and economic data. President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to reach trade agreements with Washington, including major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, both of which will face 25% levies. He also signed an executive order extending the reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1 from July 9, allowing more time for negotiations. Moreover, Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” as the bloc held a summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have climbed in recent sessions after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report for June dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Markets have largely priced out the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.

周二，美元指数跌破97.5，在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布对14个尚未与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家实施最新关税后，美元指数从上一交易日的涨幅回落。该名单包括日本和韩国等主要出口国，这两个国家都将面临25%的关税。特朗普还签署了一项行政命令，将互惠关税的最后期限从7月9日延长至8月1日，让谈判代表有更多时间达成协议。此外，他警告称，在金砖国家召开巴西峰会之际，将对与他所称的“金砖国家反美政策”相一致的国家额外征收10%的关税。尽管周二有所回落，但周一美元走强，贸易担忧有所缓解，对美联储近期降息的预期降低。美国6月就业报告强于预期，降低了放松政策的紧迫性，市场在很大程度上排除了7月降息的可能性。

The US dollar index slipped below 97.5 on Tuesday, retreating from the previous session's gains after President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to secure trade deals with Washington. The list includes major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, both of which will face 25% levies. Trump also signed an executive order extending the reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1 from July 9, giving negotiators more time to reach agreements. In addition, he warned of an extra 10% tariff on countries aligning with what he described as the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” as the bloc convened for a summit in Brazil. Despite Tuesday’s pullback, the dollar had strengthened on Monday amid easing trade concerns and reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report for June lessened the urgency for policy easing, with markets largely pricing out the likelihood of a rate cut in July.