卢比势头减弱，下行风险在鲍威尔演讲前再次合并。预计周五印度卢比将基本持平或略有走弱，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表可能为利率前景提供线索的会后讲话之前，短期情绪将转为看跌。

Rupee momentum falters, downside risks re-merge ahead of Powell's speech.The Indian rupee is expected to open largely flat to slightly weaker on Friday, with near-term sentiment titled bearish ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech post market that may offer cues on the interest rate outlook.

随着大米通胀降温，日本核心CPI放缓至3.1%，但潜在压力依然存在。日本7月通胀再次放缓，核心CPI（不含新鲜食品）从3.3%同比降至3.1%，略高于3.0%的预期。整体CPI也同比下降3.1%。

Japan core CPI slows to 3.1% as rice inflation cools, but underlying pressures persist.Japan's inflation slowed again in July, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) easing to 3.1% yoy from 3.3% yoy, slightly above expectations of 3.0% yoy. Headline CPI also dipped to 3.1% yoy.

周五，澳元兑美元汇率几乎没有变化，跌至0.642美元左右，暂停了其四个交易日的连跌，但本周将下跌1.3%，这是其第二周下跌。美元走强对美元造成压力，美元正走向稳健的每周表现，因为全球市场正在为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔演讲做准备，这可能会影响利率的短期走势。早些时候，美国疲软的就业数据提振了人们对大幅削减的希望，但美联储的谨慎言论和持续的通胀风险使市场定价在9月份有所下降。在国内方面，市场几乎完全消化了澳大利亚储备银行9月份再次降息25个基点的预期，这将使利率降至3.35%，预计进一步宽松至3.10%。与此同时，商业活动的明显回升为澳元提供了一些支撑，8月份制造业加速至59.2，服务业从上月的54.1升至55.1。

The Australian dollar was little changed to around $0.642 on Friday, pausing its four-session losing streak, but on track for a 1.3% drop for the week, its second weekly decline. The currency was pressured by a firmer US dollar, which is heading for a solid weekly performance as global markets braced for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that could shape the near-term path for interest rates. Earlier, weaker US jobs data had fueled hopes for aggressive cuts, but cautious Fed remarks and persistent inflation risks have since left market pricing in a smaller September move. On the domestic front, markets remained nearly fully priced for another 25 bps cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September, which would take rates to 3.35%, with further easing expected toward 3.10%. Meanwhile, a marked pickup in business activity lent some support to the Aussie, with manufacturing accelerating to 59.2 in August and services rising to 55.1 from 54.1 in the prior month.

周五，日元兑美元汇率跌至145.5左右，为三周来的最低水平，交易员们消化了最新的通胀数据。2025年7月，核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，略低于6月的3.3%，但超过了市场预期的3%。这一数字仍远高于日本央行2%的目标，增强了人们对政策转变的预期。分析师预计，核心通胀率将在较长一段时间内保持在3%以上，这增强了人们对日本央行最早可能在10月加息的押注。在7月份的会议上，央行上调了通胀预期，并表示对年底前加息持开放态度。尽管如此，上田和夫州长仍保持谨慎立场，强调“潜在通胀”尚未与2%的目标保持稳定一致。日元还面临着美元走强的外部压力，因为市场正在为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔演讲做准备，他可能会推翻对近期降息的预期。

The Japanese yen weakened to around 145.5 per dollar on Friday, its lowest level in three weeks, as traders digested the latest inflation data. Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in July 2025, easing slightly from 3.3% in June but exceeding market expectations of 3%. The figure remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations of a policy shift. Analysts expect core inflation to stay above 3% for an extended period, bolstering bets that the BOJ could raise rates as early as October. At its July meeting, the central bank lifted its inflation outlook and signaled openness to a hike by year-end. Still, Governor Kazuo Ueda has maintained a cautious stance, stressing that “underlying inflation” has not yet shown a stable alignment with the 2% goal. The yen also faced external pressure from a stronger US dollar, as markets braced for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where he may push back against expectations for a near-term rate cut.