XLMUSD (XLMUSD) 加自选

天然气价格展望——天然气继续测试3美元。天然气市场继续将3美元的水平视为巨大的支撑位，看起来我们正试图从这里跳下去。在这个时间点上，任何反弹都可能是一个潜在的卖出机会，有迹象表明市场已经筋疲力尽。

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Test $3.The natural gas market continues to see the $3 level as a massive support level, and it looks as if we are trying to jump from here. At this point in time, any rally is probably worth looking at as a potential selling opportunity in signs of exhaustion.

大米价格降至12.28美元/英担，为2025年5月以来的最低水平。在过去的4周里，Rice下跌了2.91%，在过去的12个月里，它下跌了18.07%。

Rice decreased to 12.28 USD/cwt, the lowest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice lost 2.91%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 18.07%.

周四，尽管有一些行业豁免，但美国下周将对巴西产品征收新的关税，Ibovespa指数下跌近1%，至133000点。此外，巴西央行暂停了紧缩周期，将塞利克利率维持在15%，并表示由于贸易政策的不确定性，将在很长一段时间内保持这一水平。卢拉总统谴责美国50%的关税是出于政治动机，是对国家主权的威胁。外交部长毛罗·维埃拉在华盛顿会见了美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥，这是特朗普重返总统职位以来的首次正式接触，以解决这一问题。特朗普将关税与前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的法律待遇联系起来，但通过豁免飞机、能源和橙汁等关键行业来减轻打击。淡水河谷（-1.4%）、CSN（-1.3%）和Gerdau（-1.2%）因黑色金属基准暴跌而下跌，而巴西航空工业公司（Embraer）因豁免消息而飙升近6%，将本周的涨幅扩大到25%。

The Ibovespa fell near 1% to 133,000 on Thursday following the new US tariffs on Brazilian products due next week, despite some sector exemptions. Also, Brazil’s central bank paused its tightening cycle by holding the Selic rate at 15% and signaling it will maintain the level for a prolonged period due to uncertainty surrounding trade policy. President Lula condemned the US’s 50% tariff as politically motivated and a threat to national sovereignty. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington—the first official contact since Trump’s return to the presidency—to address the issue. Trump linked the tariffs to the legal treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, but softened the blow by exempting key sectors such as aircraft, energy, and orange juice. Vale (-1.4%), CSN (-1.3%), and Gerdau (-1.2%) dropped as ferrous metal benchmarks tumbled, while Embraer surged nearly 6% on news of the exemption, extending this week's rally to 25%.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率降至3.47%，较7月15日的一年峰值3.611%进一步回落，原因是国内增长数据疲软、加拿大央行政策利率稳定和美国国债收益率下降对长期借贷成本造成压力。加拿大高级统计局的数据显示，第二季度实际持平，5月份GDP收缩0.1%，这几乎打破了人们对中国银行进一步收紧政策超过2.75%的预期，而5月份工资增长放缓进一步缓和了通胀担忧。在此背景下，随着美国10年期国债收益率下降，全球融资条件有所放松，这是由于通胀数据仍在上升但有所降温，美联储新闻发布会推迟了降息指导，地缘政治和贸易不确定性上升。加上国内势头减弱、渥太华的“观望”立场和美国国债收益率的大幅下滑，加拿大长期债券收益率在过去两周稳步下降。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond eased toward 3.47%, easing further from its one-year peak of 3.611% on July 15th, as softer domestic growth data, a steady Bank of Canada policy rate and falling US Treasury yields weighed on long-term borrowing costs. Advance Statistics Canada figures pointing to an effectively flat second-quarter and May’s 0.1% GDP contraction have all but dashed expectations of further BoC tightening beyond its 2.75% hold, while May’s slowdown in wage growth has further tempered inflation concerns. Against that backdrop, global funding conditions have loosened as the US 10-year yield declined, driven by still-elevated but cooling inflation readings, a Fed press conference that postponed rate-cut guidance and rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Together, muted domestic momentum, Ottawa’s “wait-and-see” stance and a broad slide in US yields have pushed Canada’s long-bond yield steadily lower over the past two weeks.