欧元/美元 (EURUSD) 加自选

美国股市本周开盘下跌，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数均下跌0.3%，道琼斯指数下跌200点，此前周五公布的就业报告好于预期，股市强劲上涨。交易员现在等待本周公布的关键CPI和PPI数据，以评估价格压力的演变情况。市场认为，美联储在11月降息25个基点的可能性接近84%，而不是再次大幅降息50个基点。与此同时，本周晚些时候，随着摩根大通、富国银行和纽约梅隆银行的报告，财报季即将拉开帷幕。非必需消费品、房地产和公用事业表现不佳，而能源板块上涨。大型股涨跌互现，苹果（-1.1%）和亚马逊（-2.4%）下跌，而英伟达（2%）和Meta（0.8%）处于绿色，微软和Alphabet的交易几乎没有变化。与此同时，辉瑞股价飙升3%，此前彭博社报道，激进投资者Starboard Value已持有该公司约10亿美元的股份。

US stocks kicked off the week in the red, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq losing 0.3% and the Dow Jones falling 200 points, following strong gains on Friday after a better-than-expected jobs report. Traders now await key CPI and PPI data due this week to assess how price pressures are evolving. Markets are assigning a nearly 84% chance the Fed will cut deliver a 25bps rate cut in November rather than another jumbo 50bps reduction. At the same time, the earnings season is about to kick off later in the week with reports from big banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank Of New York Mellon. Consumer discretionary, real estate and utilities underperformed while the energy sector gained. Megacaps were mixed, with Apple (-1.1%) and Amazon (-2.4%) falling while Nvidia (2%) and Meta (0.8%) were in the green and Microsoft and Alphabet traded little changed. Meanwhile, Pfizer soared 3% after Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of about $1 billion in the firm.

2024年9月，美国曼海姆二手车价值指数环比下降0.5%，这是三个月来的首次下降，此前8月上涨1.2%，7月下跌2.8%。SUV（-0.3%）、皮卡（-0.6%）、豪华车（-1%）和中型轿车（-1.2%）的价格下跌，而紧凑型汽车的成本上涨了1.2%。Cox Automotive经济与工业洞察高级总监Jeremy Robb表示：“未经调整的价格通常在9月份下降，虽然今年发生了这种情况，但价格下降幅度低于当月正常水平。零售二手车供应量仍低于过去几年的水平，离租期限将继续下降。新常态可能是我们继续看到批发贬值，但今年剩余时间可能比市场习惯的要温和。”二手车价格同比下降5.3%，8月份下降3.9%。自2022年8月以来，价格一直在逐年下降。

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for the US declined 0.5% month-over-month in September 2024, the first fall in three months, following a 1.2% rise in August and a 2.8% slump in July. Prices fell for SUVs (-0.3%), pickups (-0.6%), luxury (-1%) and midsize sedans (-1.2%) while cost for compact cars went up 1.2%. "Non-adjusted prices usually decline in September, and while that occurred this year, prices fell less than they normally do for the month. Retail used days’ supply remains at lower levels than the last few years, and off-lease maturities will continue to decline. The new normal is likely that we continue to see wholesale depreciation, but it may be more muted than the market is accustomed to for the rest of the year”, said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. Year-on-year, used car prices decreased 5.3%, following a 3.9% drop in August. Prices have been falling on a yearly basis since August 2022.

美国股市期货周一下跌，三大股指期货合约下跌约0.5%，此前周五就业报告强劲，涨幅强劲。交易员现在等待本周公布的关键CPI和PPI数据，以评估价格压力的演变情况。市场认为，美联储在11月降息25个基点的可能性接近85%，而不是再次大幅降息50个基点。与此同时，本周晚些时候，随着摩根大通、富国银行和纽约梅隆银行的报告，财报季即将拉开帷幕。大型股在盘前交易中处于亏损状态，即苹果（-1.3%）、微软（-0.4%）、英伟达（-0.7%）、亚马逊（-1.8%）、Meta（-0.2%）和Alphabet（-0.5%）。另一方面，在彭博社报道激进投资者Starboard Value入股辉瑞约10亿美元后，辉瑞股价在开盘前飙升了3%以上。

Stock futures in the US were lower on Monday, with contracts on the three major averages losing around 0.5%, following strong gains on Friday after a strong jobs report. Traders now await key CPI and PPI data due this week to assess how price pressures are evolving. Markets are assigning a nearly 85% chance the Fed will cut deliver a 25bps rate cut in November rather than another jumbo 50bps reduction. At the same time, the earnings season is about to kick off later in the week with reports from big banks JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank Of New York Mellon. Megacaps were in the red in premarket trading, namely Apple (-1.3%), Microsoft (-0.4%), Nvidia (-0.7%), Amazon (-1.8%), Meta (-0.2%) and Alphabet (-0.5%). On the other hand, Pfizer soared more than 3% before the opening bell after Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of about $1 billion in the firm.

德国10年期国债收益率升至2.24%以上，为五周来最高，追随美国国债收益率走高，此前美国强劲的就业报告降低了对美联储大幅降息的预期。美国9月份新增25.4万个非农就业岗位，远超预期，失业率降至4.1%。这一数据降低了美联储降息50个基点的可能性，市场现在预计降息25个基点。相比之下，欧元区通胀率降至1.8%，这提高了人们对欧洲央行在即将召开的会议上降息25个基点的预期，这是今年第三次降息。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund rose above 2.24%, its highest in five weeks, tracking US Treasury yields higher after a strong US jobs report reduced expectations of a large rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The US added 254,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, far exceeding forecasts, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This data diminished the chances of a 50 bps rate cut from the Fed, with markets now expecting a 25 bps cut instead. In contrast, Eurozone inflation fell to 1.8%, raising expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB at its upcoming meeting, marking the third cut this year.