在石油产量增加和非碳氢化合物行业强劲增长的支持下，阿拉伯联合酋长国经济目前预计在2025年将增长4.9%，高于此前预测的4.4%。央行在其季度更新中表示，随着石油产量按照欧佩克+配额增加，预计2025年碳氢化合物行业将增长5.8%，2026年将增长6.5%。与此同时，预计2025年非碳氢化合物GDP将增长4.5%，2026年将增长4.8%。这些行业可能受益于油气增长强劲的间接影响，包括投资增加、政府支出增加和经济信心增强。第一季度，阿联酋国内生产总值同比增长3.9%，非碳氢化合物增长5.3%。制造业、金融服务业、建筑业和房地产行业引领了这一扩张。

The United Arab Emirates' economy is now expected to grow 4.9% in 2025, up from earlier forecasts of 4.4%, supported by higher oil production and robust growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector. In its quarterly update, the Central Bank said the hydrocarbon sector is projected to expand by 5.8% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, as oil production increases in line with OPEC+ quotas. Meanwhile, non-hydrocarbon GDP is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026. These sectors may benefit from the indirect effects of stronger hydrocarbon growth, including increased investment, higher government spending, and improved economic confidence. In the first quarter, UAE GDP advanced 3.9% year-on-year, driven by non-hydrocarbon growth of 5.3%. The manufacturing, financial services, construction, and real estate sectors led this expansion.

周五，美国股指小幅上涨，此前三大股指在美联储最新降息的支持下，在前一交易日均收于历史高点。周四，道琼斯指数上涨0.27%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.48%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.94%。标普11个板块中有7个板块上涨，其中科技、工业和通信服务板块领涨。在个人投资者中，英伟达宣布投资50亿美元共同开发芯片后，英特尔股价飙升约23%，而英伟达股价上涨3.5%。其他显著上涨的股票包括Palantir（5.1%）、Coinbase（7%）和CrowdStrike（12.8%）。本周早些时候，美联储宣布降息25个基点，并预计今年还会再降息两次，同时暗示2026年只降息一次。与此同时，周五没有重大经济数据或盈利报告。

US stock futures edged higher on Friday after all three major indexes closed at record highs in the prior session, supported by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. On Thursday, the Dow added 0.27%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.48% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.94%. Seven of the 11 S&P sectors advanced, led by technology, industrials and communication services. Among individual movers, Intel soared about 23% after Nvidia unveiled a $5 billion investment to co-develop chips, while Nvidia rose 3.5%. Other notable gainers included Palantir (5.1%), Coinbase (7%) and CrowdStrike (12.8%). Earlier in the week, the Fed delivered a 25 basis point cut and projected two more reductions this year, while signaling just one cut in 2026. Meanwhile, no major economic data or earnings reports are scheduled for Friday.

日元和澳元预测：随着日本央行决策的临近，日本通胀降温。日元和澳元成为焦点，因为日本央行、美联储指引和美中贸易谈判推动美元/日元和澳元/美元在关键技术水平上移动。

Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: Japan Inflation Cools as BoJ Decision Looms.Yen and Aussie in spotlight as BoJ, Fed guidance, and US-China trade talks drive USD/JPY and AUD/USD moves across key technical levels.

德国议会周四批准了自今年早些时候通过放松财政规则的全面改革以来的首个年度预算，确保了创纪录的投资以振兴经济，同时承诺增加国防开支。2025年的预算允许总投资近1160亿欧元（约合1369.4亿美元），这得益于5000亿欧元的基础设施基金和3月份批准的国防支出债务豁免规则。据路透社报道，财政部长Lars Klingbeil在德国议会下院联邦议院投票前告诉议员们：“这是德国财政政策的一个巨大范式转变。”。德国2025年的预算将国防开支提高到GDP的2.4%，仍低于新目标。去年11月，前执政党政治崩溃，没有时间通过2025年的支出计划后，欧洲最大的经济体今年一直在临时预算下运作。

Germany’s parliament approved on Thursday the nation’s first annual budget since sweeping reforms to loosen fiscal rules were passed earlier this year, securing record investments to revive the economy while committing to increased defence spending. The 2025 budget allows for total investment of nearly €116 billion (approximately $136.94 billion), made possible by a €500 billion infrastructure fund and an exemption from debt rules for defence spending approved in March. “It is a huge paradigm shift in German fiscal policy,” Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told lawmakers ahead of the vote in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, according to Reuters. Germany’s 2025 budget raises defence spending to 2.4% of GDP, still shy of the new target. Europe’s largest economy has been operating on a provisional budget this year, after the former ruling oalition collapsed last November, leaving no time to pass the 2025 spending plans.