2025年7月，印尼出口同比增长9.86%，低于6月的11.29%，原因是美国与印尼达成贸易协议后，前期装载放缓。根据7月达成的协议，印尼同意互惠关税税率为19%，低于此前威胁的32%。

Exports from Indonesia climbed 9.86% year-on-year in July 2025, easing from 11.29% in June, as front-loading slowed following the US-Indonesia trade deal. Under the agreement reached in July, Indonesia agreed to a reciprocal tariff rate of 19%, lower than the previously threatened 32%.

由于交易员权衡财政风险和强劲增长数据，印度10年期G-Sec的收益率在8月底升至6.6%，徘徊在3月27日以来的最高水平附近。市场预计本周收益率将保持在6.52%-6.65%的区间，重点将转移到印度的财政前景和即将举行的商品和服务税委员会会议上。在莫迪总理于8月15日宣布全面的商品及服务税改革后，人们对财政下滑的担忧情绪有所缓和，其中包括计划在10月前将税率降至5%和18%，取消12%和28%的税率。商品及服务税委员会将于周三和周四召开会议，以敲定细节。与此同时，印度第二季度经济同比增长7.8%，高于6.7%的预测，尽管经济学家警告称，由于关税溢出效应，未来几个季度的增长势头可能会降温。在印度和中国在上合组织峰会上重申他们是发展伙伴而非竞争对手后，投资者还追踪了地缘政治的发展。

The yield on the Indian 10-year G-Sec rose to 6.6% at the end of August, hovering near its highest level since March 27, as traders weighed fiscal risks and strong growth data. Markets expect the yield to remain in the 6.52%–6.65% band this week, with focus shifting to India’s fiscal outlook and the upcoming Goods and Services Tax Council meeting. Sentiment has softened on fears of fiscal slippage after Prime Minister Modi announced sweeping GST reforms on August 15, including a plan to cut rates to two slabs of 5% and 18% by October, scrapping the 12% and 28% tiers. The GST council will convene Wednesday and Thursday to finalize details. Meanwhile, India’s economy grew 7.8% year-on-year in Q2, beating forecasts of 6.7%, though economists warned momentum may cool in coming quarters due to tariff spillovers. Investors also tracked geopolitical developments after India and China reaffirmed at the SCO summit that they are partners in development rather than rivals.

周一，由于对美联储本月晚些时候降息的坚定预期，白银价格飙升2%，至每盎司40美元以上，达到2011年9月以来的最高水平。旧金山联储主席Mary Daly周五表示，考虑到劳动力市场的风险，央行准备降低借贷成本，并指出关税驱动的通货膨胀可能是暂时的。市场目前预计，在即将召开的美联储会议上降息25个基点的可能性约为88%，即使在美联储首选的个人消费支出通胀报告显示价格上涨之后。在贸易方面，一家联邦上诉法院裁定，唐纳德·特朗普总统的大部分互惠关税都是非法的，让政府在10月14日之前向美国最高法院上诉。与此同时，工业需求支撑了白银，中国的太阳能热潮推动太阳能电池出口在今年上半年增长了70%以上，印度订单强劲。

Silver surged 2% to above $40 per ounce on Monday, reaching its highest level since September 2011, driven by firm expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday that the central bank is prepared to lower borrowing costs given risks to the labor market, noting that tariff-driven inflation may prove temporary. Markets are currently pricing in about an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, even after the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation report showed prices rising. On the trade front, a federal appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal, giving the administration until October 14 to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Meanwhile, industrial demand supported silver, with China’s solar boom driving solar cell exports up more than 70% in the first half of the year, led by strong orders from India.

印尼盾兑美元汇率徘徊在16480左右，为一个月来最低水平，受到持续的全国抗议活动中政治不稳定的压力。上周末，总统普拉博沃·苏比安托取消了向议员提供每月5000万印尼盾住房津贴的提议，暂停了所有议会访问，并取消了计划中的中国之行，以集中精力恢复稳定。他还命令安全部队在政治人物的住宅和政府大楼遭到洗劫或纵火后采取严厉行动。由于全球风险，包括美国关税风险和新兴市场持续的资本外流，市场情绪已经很脆弱。印尼盾今年迄今已下跌2.4%，成为仅次于日元的亚洲第二差货币。周一，一位高级经济部长强调，基本面仍然稳固，而印尼央行誓言通过包括外汇干预在内的措施来保护货币。与此同时，在关键劳动力市场数据公布之前，美元保持坚挺。

The Indonesian rupiah hovered around 16,480 per USD, its weakest in a month, pressured by political instability amid ongoing nationwide protests. Over the weekend, President Prabowo Subianto scrapped a proposed IDR 50 million monthly housing allowance for lawmakers, suspended all parliamentary trips, and canceled his planned visit to China to focus on restoring stability. He also ordered security forces to take stern action after homes of political figures and state buildings were ransacked or set ablaze. Sentiment was already fragile due to global risks, including U.S. tariff risks and persistent capital outflows from emerging markets. The rupiah has fallen 2.4% year-to-date, making it Asia’s second-worst performing currency after the yen. On Monday, a top economic minister stressed that fundamentals remain solid, while Bank Indonesia vowed to guard the currency through measures including forex intervention. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar held firm ahead of key labor market data.