澳元/美元 (AUDUSD) 加自选

周一，美国10年期国债收益率跌至3.34%左右，徘徊在2023年5月以来的最低水平，因为交易员们纷纷押注美联储本周开始降息时将采取更积极的行动。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储周三将大幅降息50个基点的可能性为59%，高于一个月前的25%，而适度降息25个基点的几率为41%。尽管最新的就业数据显示劳动力市场放缓的迹象，但8月份的关键通胀数据仍高于上周的预期。投资者还期待周二美国零售销售和工业生产数据，以获得更多关于经济的见解。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury slipped to around 3.34% on Monday, hovering at its lowest levels since May 2023 as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve will move more aggressively when it starts cutting interest rates this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, up from 25% a month ago, while odds for a modest 25 bps reduction stands at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Those expectations came even after key inflation figures for August came in hotter-than-anticipated last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market. Investors also look ahead to US retail sales and industrial production numbers on Tuesday for more insights on the economy.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在3.84%左右，投资者继续评估澳大利亚储备银行的货币政策前景。央行一直保持鹰派立场，劝阻市场不要为今年的降息定价。本月早些时候，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克强调，由于通货膨胀率仍然过高，考虑降息还为时过早。助理州长莎拉·亨特最近也表示，相对于充分就业，劳动力市场仍然紧张，就业预计将继续增长，但速度低于人口增长。投资者现在正在等待本周的就业报告，以衡量劳动力市场的健康状况及其对国内货币政策的潜在影响。与此同时，市场注意力也将集中在美联储本周晚些时候预期的降息上。

Australia's 10-year government bond yield stabilized at around 3.84% as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy outlook. The central bank has maintained a hawkish stance, dissuading the market from pricing in cuts this year. Earlier this month, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that it is too soon to consider rate cuts as inflation remained too high. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also recently said that the labor market is still tight relative to full employment, with employment expected to continue rising but at a slower pace than population growth. Investors are now awaiting the country’s jobs report this week to gauge the health of the labor market and its potential implications on the domestic monetary policy. Meanwhile, market attention will also be focused on an expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve later this week.

澳元兑美元汇率升至0.67美元上方，徘徊在一周高点附近，因为美元在美联储本周预期降息之前走弱。市场目前预计，美联储本周将大幅降息50个基点的可能性更大。澳元也受到大宗商品价格走强的提振，黄金创下历史新高。在国内货币政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克最近表示，由于通货膨胀率仍然过高，考虑降息还为时过早。澳大利亚储备银行助理行长Sarah Hunter也表示，劳动力市场仍然紧张，但他指出，有迹象表明工资增长可能已经超过峰值，并将进一步放缓。

The Australian dollar strengthened above $0.67, hovering near a one-week high as the US dollar weakened ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week. Markets are currently pricing in a higher chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate reduction this week. The Aussie was also lifted by stronger commodity prices, with gold scaling new record highs. On the domestic monetary policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said recently that it is too soon to consider rate cuts as inflation remains too high. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also said that the labor market remains tight, but noted that there were signs wage growth was likely past its peak and set to slow further.

周一，美元指数跌至101以下，连续第三个交易日下跌，因为越来越多的人猜测美联储将在本周的政策会议上更积极地降息。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储周三将大幅降息50个基点的可能性为59%，高于一个月前的25%，而适度降息25个基点的几率为41%。尽管最新的就业数据显示劳动力市场放缓的迹象，但8月份的关键通胀数据仍高于上周的预期。投资者还期待周二美国零售销售和工业生产数据，以获得更多关于经济的见解。美元全面走弱，对日元、欧元和英镑的抛售活动最为明显。

The dollar index fell below 101 on Monday, sliding for the third straight session on growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively at this week’s policy meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, up from 25% a month ago, while odds for a modest 25 bps reduction stands at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Those expectations came even after key inflation figures for August came in hotter-than-anticipated last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market. Investors also look ahead to US retail sales and industrial production numbers on Tuesday for more insights on the economy. The dollar weakened across the board, with the most pronounced selling activity seen against the yen, euro and sterling.