澳元/美元 (AUDUSD) 加自选

周三，由于交易员对联邦公开市场委员会的最新决定做出反应，美元指数跌至96.4，为2022年2月以来的最低水平。美联储按预期将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，这是今年首次降低借贷成本，同时表示年底前将再降息50个基点，略高于6月份的预期。政策制定者还注意到，就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，但仍然很低。这被解读为更温和。与此同时，只有新任命的州长Stephen Miran投票赞成更大幅度的50个基点降息，这表明反对意见比市场预期的要少。

The dollar index weakened to 96.4 on Wednesday, the lowest level since February 2022, as traders react to the latest FOMC decision. The Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25bps as expected, the first reduction in borrowing costs this year, while signalling additional 50bps of cuts before the year's end, slightly more than projected in June. Policymakers also noticed that job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. This is being read as more dovish. Meanwhile, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of a larger 50 bps cut, marking fewer dissents than markets had anticipated.

美联储降息25个基点，预计今年将再采取两项举措。美联储将利率下调25个基点至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预期。这一决定并不是一致的，新确认的临时州长Stephen Miran反对更大幅度的50个基点的降息。

Fed cuts 25bps, projections signal two more moves this year.The Fed cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, in line with market expectations. The decision was not unanimous, with newly confirmed temporary Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger 50bps cut.

周三，美联储将关键利率下调25个基点，并在今年剩余时间内再降息两次，美国股市震荡。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数小幅下跌，而传统经济板块的强势使道琼斯指数上涨了300多点。联邦公开市场委员会的预测表明，自6月会议以来，实际增长和失业率好于预期，反映出尽管最近的失业数据显示就业增长放缓，但对关税影响的担忧有所减轻。尽管如此，明年个人消费支出通胀的更高预测对更激进的削减周期提出了挑战。主要消费品和信贷服务类股领涨，宝洁、菲利普莫里斯和美国运通上涨2%。另一方面，英伟达和博通分别下跌2.5%和4%，因为有报道称中国互联网监管机构禁止该国最大的科技公司购买该公司的人工智能芯片。

US stocks whipsawed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its key rates by 25bps, as largely expected, and penned two additional rate cuts for the rest of this year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were slightly lower, while strength in traditional sectors of the economy lifted the Dow by over 300 points. Projections by the FOMC indicated that real growth and unemployment are better than expected since the June meeting, reflecting lesser concerns on the impact of tariffs despite recent unemployment data that pointed to lower job growth. Still, higher projections for PCE inflation next year challenged the case for a more aggressive cutting cycle. Consumer staples and credit services were among the top gainers of the session with P&G, Phillip Morris, and American Express adding 2%. On the other hand, Nvidia and Broadcom fell 2.5% and 4%, respectively, on reports that that China’s internet regulator had barred the country’s largest tech firms from purchasing the company’s AI chips.

美联储于2025年9月将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，使其达到4.00%-4.25%的区间，符合预期。这是自去年12月以来首次降低借贷成本。新任命的州长Stephen Miran单独投票反对25个基点的举措，支持降息半个百分点。央行还发布了新的经济预测。美联储预计到2025年底将再降息50个基点，2026年降息25个基点，略高于6月份的预期。2025年（1.6%对6月预测的1.4%）、2026年（1.8%对1.6%）和2027年（1.9%对1.8%）的GDP增长预测被上调。今年个人消费支出通胀率预计为3%，与6月份相同，但2026年的预测被上调（2.6%对2.4%）。2025年核心个人消费支出预测也保持在3.1%，但2026年从2.4%上调至2.6%。预计2025年的失业率将继续为4.5%，但已从明年的4.5%下调至4.4%。

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, in line with expectations. It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran stood alone in voting against the 25bps move, favoring a half-point cut instead. The central bank also released new economic projections. The Fed expects to lower rates by another 50bps by the end of 2025, and a quarter point in 2026, slightly more than expected in June. GDP growth projections were revised higher for 2025 (1.6% vs 1.4% seen in the June projection), 2026 (1.8% vs 1.6%) and 2027 (1.9% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation is seen at 3% for this year, the same as in June but the projection was revised higher for 2026 (2.6% vs 2.4%). Core PCE projection was also left at 3.1% for 2025 but was revised up for 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4%. The unemployment rate continues to be expected at 4.5% for 2025 but was revised lower to 4.4% from 4.5% for next year.