澳元/加元 (AUDCAD) 加自选

前瞻性指引：加拿大工业数据显示贸易敏感行业趋于稳定。自春季以来，制造业首当其冲地受到美国关税的负面影响。第二季度产量年化收缩9%。

Forward Guidance: Canada's Industry Data to Show Stabilization in Trade Exposed Sectors.Manufacturing has borne the brunt of the negative fallout from U.S. tariffs since spring. Production contracted an annualized 9% in Q2.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数抹去跌幅，收于29912点，上涨0.5%，投资者评估了企业盈利和强劲的劳动力数据。国内失业率意外降至6.9%，而就业人数激增，工资增长增加，这进一步表明中国央行的宽松周期不太可能继续下去。大宗商品巨头领涨，黄金和油价本周收高，加拿大自然、巴里克黄金、惠顿和TC能源上涨4%至2%。与此同时，Enbridge收盘上涨1%，尽管其每股收益为0.46加元，低于0.54加元的预期。此外，Shopify下跌2.4%，因市场继续向押注人工智能的公司施压，要求其高估估值。

The S&P/TSX Composite erased losses to close 0.5% higher at 29,912 on Friday as investors assessed corporate earnings and strong labor data. The domestic unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, while employment surged and wage growth increased, reinforcing signs that the BoC’s easing cycle is unlikely to continue. Commodity giants led the gains as gold and oil prices ended the week higher, with Canadian Natural, Barrick Gold, Wheaton, and TC Energy advancing between 4% and 2%. Meanwhile, Enbridge closed 1% higher despite reporting an EPS of C$0.46, below forecasts of C$0.54. Also, Shopify fell 2.4% as markets continued to pressure companies with bets on AI for exaggerated valuations.

在一系列强劲的劳动力市场数据中，加元兑美元汇率从11月6日的7个月高点1.412反弹至1.405。10月份的失业率从上个月的7.1%的四年高点降至6.9%，这得益于就业意外激增和失业率下降。此外，工资增长意外升至4%的八个月高点，远高于最新的通胀指标。这一结果巩固了这样一种观点，即加拿大央行可能已经完成了上次会议的降息周期，正如政策制定者所暗示的那样，如果他们的基本情况成立，因为经济已被证明对美国关税相对强劲，基本通胀措施仍远高于目标。最新数据显示，上个月，中国银行首选的潜在通胀指标——削减后的平均核心通胀率升至2024年2月以来的最高水平。相反，美国劳动力市场的悲观数据削弱了美元。

The Canadian dollar appreciated toward 1.405 per USD, rebounding from the seven-month high of 1.412 on November 6th amid a batch of strong labor market data. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October from the four-year high of 7.1% in the previous month, supported by an unexpected surge in employment and a drop in unemployment. Additionally, wage growth unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high of 4%, well above the latest inflation gauges. The results consolidated the view that the Bank of Canada is likely to have finished its rate cutting cycle last meeting, as signaled by policymakers should their base case hold, as the economy has proven relatively robust to US tariffs and underlying inflation measures remain well above target. The latest data showed that trimmed-mean core inflation rate, the BoC's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, rose to the highest level since February of 2024 last month. Conversely, pessimistic data for the US labor market weakened the US dollar.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.5%以上，至30000以下，投资者评估了企业盈利和强劲的劳动力数据，这可能会结束加拿大银行的降息。失业率意外降至6.9%，而就业人数激增，进一步表明中国央行的宽松周期已经结束。与此同时，Enbridge在公布每股收益0.46加元后下跌1.6%，低于0.54加元的预期。尽管收入稳健，Shopify股价下跌3.9%，毛利率降至48.9%，但该股仍保持“适度买入”评级。与此同时，Constellation Software在今天的业绩公布前下跌了0.4%，预计收入和收益会更高。相比之下，Wheaton Precious Metals上涨2.5%，尽管第三季度每股收益0.62美元略低于预期，而收入达到4.763亿美元，而预期为4.926亿美元。

The S&P/TSX Composite more than 0.5% to below 30,000 on Friday as investors assessed corporate earnings and strong labor data, which could end the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, while employment surged, reinforcing signs the BoC’s easing cycle is over. Meanwhile, Enbridge lost 1.6% after reporting EPS of C$0.46, below forecasts of C$0.54. Shopify fell 3.9% despite solid revenues, as its gross margin slipped to 48.9%, yet the stock retains a “Moderate Buy” rating. At the same time, Constellation Software lost 0.4% ahead of today’s results, with higher revenue and earnings expected. In contrast, Wheaton Precious Metals gained 2.5% even though Q3 EPS of $0.62 came slightly below estimates, while revenue reached $476.3 million versus $492.6 million expected.