英镑/加元 (GBPCAD) 加自选

美联储将维持利率，因为加拿大零售销售在关税下显示出弹性。人们普遍预计，美联储将在周三再次放弃降息。自2024年下半年将联邦基金利率下调100个基点后，央行自12月以来一直处于暂停状态。

U.S. Fed to Holds Rates as Canada's Retail Sales Show Resilience amid Tariffs.The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to forego an interest rate cut again on Wednesday. The central bank has been on pause since December after cutting the fed funds rate by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.4%，收于26504点，从周四的历史高点回落，原因是以色列-伊朗紧张局势升级，促使投资者转向避险资产。此前，伊朗对以色列袭击其核设施和导弹设施进行了报复，据报道发射了100多枚导弹，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧，并推动了黄金和原油价格的上涨。原油价格飙升7%，提振了加拿大自然资源（+2.7%）、森科尔（+4.3%）和帝国石油（+3.4%）等能源股。由于地缘政治风险加剧，金价也上涨了1%，提振了Agnico Eagle（+1.9%）和Barrick Gold（+2.8%）。尽管周五有所下跌，但该指数连续第三周上涨，上涨0.6%，这得益于对即将召开的七国集团峰会前可能达成的加拿大-美国贸易协议的乐观情绪。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特证实，他将与唐纳德·特朗普总统一起出席在加拿大举行的峰会，并会见马克·卡尼总理。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.4% to close at 26,504 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high as escalating Israel-Iran tensions drove a shift toward safe-haven assets. The decline followed Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s strikes on its nuclear and missile facilities, with over 100 missiles reportedly launched, stoking fears of a broader conflict and fueling gains in gold and crude oil prices. Crude surged 7%, lifting energy stocks such as Canadian Natural Resources (+2.7%), Suncor (+4.3%), and Imperial Oil (+3.4%). Gold prices also rose 1% amid heightened geopolitical risk, boosting Agnico Eagle (+1.9%) and Barrick Gold (+2.8%). Despite Friday’s dip, the index notched its third consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6%, supported by optimism over a potential Canada-US trade deal ahead of the upcoming G7 summit. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed he will attend the summit in Canada alongside President Donald Trump and meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

周五，富时100指数下跌0.4%，收于8851点，从周四的历史高点回落，中东紧张局势升级引发全球股市普遍抛售。然而，与欧洲同行的更大跌幅相比，英国基准指数的跌幅更为温和。以色列对伊朗发动了大规模袭击，标志着敌对行动的显著升级，加剧了人们对该地区更广泛冲突的担忧。国际航空集团（International Airlines Group）的股价跌幅最大，为4.5%。易捷航空（-3.5%）、葛兰素史克（-2.5%）和京东体育（-1.9%）也录得巨额亏损。相比之下，在安全风险加剧和能源价格上涨的情况下，石油、天然气和国防类股表现优异，即BAE Systems（3.3%）、BP（2%）、Fresnillo（1.7%）和壳牌（1%）。本周，富时100指数微涨0.1%。

The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to close at 8,851 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high, as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked a broad-based sell-off across global equity markets. However, the decline in the UK benchmark was more modest compared to heavier losses seen across its European peers. Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran, marking a significant escalation in hostilities that fueled fears of a broader conflict in the region. Shares of International Airlines Group were among the hardest hit, falling 4.5%. EasyJet (-3.5%), GSK (-2.5%) and JD Sports (-1.9%) also booked big losses. In contrast, oil, gas, and defense stocks outperformed amid heightened security risks and rising energy prices, namely BAE Systems (3.3%), BP (2%), Fresnillo (1.7%) and Shell (1%). On the week, the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.

英格兰银行预览——稳健前行。我们预计，英格兰银行将根据共识和市场定价，在6月19日星期四将银行利率保持在4.25%不变。我们预计投票结果将是7比2，多数人投票支持不变的决定，Dhingra和Taylor投票支持削减25个基点。

Bank of England Preview – Steady as She Goes.We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.25% on Thursday 19 June in line with consensus and market pricing. We expect the vote split to be 7-2 with the majority voting for an unchanged decision and Dhingra and Taylor voting for a 25bp cut.