欧元/加元 (EURCAD) 加自选

前瞻性指引：早期指标显示加拿大7月经济增长反弹。周四加拿大7月国内生产总值将成为焦点，因为早期数据显示，第二季度增长的收缩不太可能在第三季度重演。

Forward Guidance: Early Indicators Point to Canada's Growth Rebounding in July.Canada's gross domestic product for July on Thursday will take center stage as early readings suggest the contraction in Q2 growth was not likely repeated in Q3.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨1.1%，收于29768点，创下历史新高，表现优于美国同行，因为贵金属生产商飙升，利率敏感的科技和金融公司受到中国银行和美联储最近降息以及明年进一步宽松预期的支持。主要矿商表现优异，Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious Metals、Barrick和Franco-Nevada飙升2.7%至9.7%。在其他地方，大型股Brookfield和Shopify分别上涨1.5%和0.9%，引领其行业上涨。在经济方面，初步估计显示，8月份加拿大零售额环比增长约1%，为今年第二大增幅，足以抵消7月份0.8%的下降，同时与市场预测相符。多伦多交易所连续第七周上涨，同期上涨1.7%。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% to a record close of 29,768 on Friday, outperforming US peers as precious metals producers surged and rate sensitive technology and financial names drew support from recent BoC and Fed cuts and from expectations of further easing next year. Major miners outperformed with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick and Franco Nevada surging between 2.7% and 9.7%. Elsewhere, mega caps Brookfield and Shopify added 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively to lead their sector’s advance. On the economic front, preliminary estimates point to a roughly 1% month over month jump in Canadian retail sales in August, the second largest gain this year and enough to offset July’s 0.8% decline while matching market forecasts. The Toronto exchange recorded its seventh straight weekly advance, rising 1.7% for the period.

在新的国内数据和重新调整的政策预期为加元设定了底部后，加元兑美元汇率下跌，升至1.375，接近9月高点。提前估计显示，8月份零售额增长约1.0%，抹去了7月份0.8%的跌幅，表明家庭需求比市场担忧的更强劲，这降低了加拿大银行大幅宽松周期的可能性。中国央行在经历了比预期更严重的放缓后，将政策利率下调25个基点至2.5%，其中包括第二季度国内生产总值收缩1.6%和出口暴跌约27%，而劳动力市场恶化，8月份净失业和失业率接近7.1%，缓解了工资压力，并支持了放宽政策的理由。与此同时，在美联储降息25个基点和鲍威尔主席的谨慎评论之后，美元一直在波动，随着市场消化了美联储修订后的前景，美元先是走弱，然后又重新走强。

The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.375 per US dollar approaching September highs after losing ground after fresh domestic data and recalibrated policy expectations put a floor under the currency. Advance estimates showed retail sales rising about 1.0% in August, erasing July’s 0.8% decline and signalling firmer household demand than markets feared, which reduced the odds of a steep easing cycle by the Bank of Canada. The BoC cut its policy rate 25bp to 2.5% after a sharper slowdown than expected, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a roughly 27% collapse in exports, while labour market deterioration with net job losses and unemployment near 7.1% in August eased wage pressures and supported the case for easier policy. At the same time the US dollar has been volatile after the Federal Reserve’s 25bp cut and Chair Powell’s cautious commentary, with the dollar first weakening then regaining strength as markets digested the Fed’s revised outlook.

欧洲股市周五收盘微涨，权重股金融板块的强势抵消了其他板块的涨跌互现，而市场继续评估本周的主要货币政策决定。欧元区STOXX 50指数上涨0.2%，至5467点，泛欧STOXX 600指数持平于555点。日本央行如预期般维持利率不变，但宣布计划开始解除其持有的大量交易所交易基金，令市场感到意外。交易员们还监测了美中两国总统特朗普和Xi之间的通话，两国领导人在下个月的面对面会晤前表示在多个问题上取得了进展。桑坦德银行、法国巴黎银行和北欧银行股价上涨近2%，为银行业设定了步伐。与此同时，空中客车和赛峰集团分别上涨1.4%和2.3%。反过来，运费暴跌促使穆勒-马士基集团暴跌6%。斯托克50指数本周上涨1.4%，而斯托克600指数持平。

European stocks closed slightly higher on Friday as strength in the heavyweight financial sector offset mixed movements elsewhere, while markets continued to assess major monetary policy decision over the week. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 rose 0.2% to 5,467 and the pan-European STOXX 600 was flat at 555. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as expected but surprised markets by announcing plans to begin unwinding its massive exchange-traded fund holdings. Traders also monitored the call between US and Chinese Presidents Trump and Xi, with both leaders signaling progress on multiple subjects ahead of their face-to-face meeting next month. Santander, BNP Paribas, and Nordea rose nearly 2% to set the pace for banks. In the meantime, Airbus and Safran advanced 1.4% and 2.3% In turn, plunging freight rates drove Moeller Maersk to plunge 6%. The STOXX 50 added 1.4% on the week, while the STOXX 600 was flat.