意大利10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.56%以上,接近7月25日达到的两个月高点3.66%,因为投资者根据最近的经济数据重新评估了货币政策前景。欧元区经济在第二季度仅增长了0.1%,与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓,但仍略高于无增长的预期。意大利的国内生产总值下降了0.1%,这是自2023年第二季度以来的首次经济下滑,主要是由于美国关税威胁和大宗商品价格波动导致的净外国需求的负面影响。相比之下,美国经济数据显示经济持续走强,第二季度GDP增长强劲,7月份私营部门就业增长稳健,这表明尽管特朗普总统持续施压,美联储可能会推迟任何降息。在欧元区,对欧洲央行降息的预期已进一步推迟到2026年。市场目前预计,到3月降息25个基点的可能性为90%,而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。
Italy’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.56%, nearing the two-month high of 3.66% reached on July 25, as investors reassessed monetary policy outlooks in light of recent economic data. The Eurozone economy expanded by just 0.1% in Q2, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in Q1, but still marginally above expectations for no growth. Italy’s GDP contracted by 0.1%, marking the first economic decline since Q2 2023, driven by a negative contribution from net foreign demand amid US tariff threats and volatile commodity prices. By contrast, US economic data signaled ongoing strength, with robust Q2 GDP growth and solid private-sector job gains in July, suggesting the Fed may delay any interest rate cuts, despite continued pressure from President Trump. In the Eurozone, expectations for ECB rate cuts have been pushed further into 2026. Markets now price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut by March, while the likelihood of a December move has declined to just 30%.