纽币/瑞郎 (NZDCHF) 加自选

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至近0.30%，为6月9日以来的最高水平，投资者已将通胀风险和地缘政治不稳定因素纳入考虑。中东紧张局势加剧，以色列和伊朗之间持续的空袭推高了油价，加剧了对通货膨胀的担忧。特朗普总统提前离开七国集团峰会后，投资者的焦虑情绪加剧，各国领导人正在讨论加沙、乌克兰和贸易问题。他呼吁撤离德黑兰并迅速返回华盛顿，这引发了人们对局势进一步升级的担忧。在此背景下，在关键的央行会议之前，尤其是美联储会议之前，人们普遍持谨慎态度。在当地，人们普遍预计瑞士国家银行将在6月19日的会议上降息至少25个基点，鉴于法郎走强和价格压力减弱，负利率仍有可能。此外，由于全球持续存在不确定性，瑞士对2025年和2026年的增长预测被下调。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to near 0.30%, its highest level since June 9, as investors priced in inflation risks and geopolitical instability. Tensions in the Middle East intensified, with ongoing airstrikes between Israel and Iran pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. Investor anxiety grew after President Trump left the G7 summit early, where leaders were discussing Gaza, Ukraine, and trade issues. His call to evacuate Tehran and swift return to Washington sparked fears of further escalation. Against this backdrop, caution prevails ahead of key central bank meetings, especially the Federal Reserve. Locally, the Swiss National Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its June 19 meeting, with negative rates still possible given the strength of the franc and subdued price pressures. Moreover, Switzerland’s growth projections for 2025 and 2026 were lowered amid persistent global uncertainties.

周二，新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数下跌0.4%，收于12639点，收复了前一交易日的一些涨幅，因为投资者在中东紧张局势升级的情况下采取了避险措施。随着冲突进入第五天，以色列和伊朗开始了新一轮的袭击。据报道，德黑兰敦促几个国家向美国施压，要求立即停火，但以色列表示没有兴趣。新的数据显示，新西兰5月份的年度食品通胀率从4月份的3.7%加速至4.4%，为2023年12月以来的最高水平，这加剧了看跌情绪。投资者目前正在等待本周的关键本地数据，包括经常账户、消费者信心和第一季度国内生产总值，以获取进一步的经济线索。在主要股票中，Gentrack Group（-4.9%）、Ryman Healthcare（-2.7%）、Mercury NZ（-2.3%）、Meridian Energy（-2.2%）和Fisher&Paykel（-1.9%）的跌幅显著。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to close at 12,639 on Tuesday, giving back some gains from the previous session as investors moved to risk-off positions amid escalating Middle East tensions. Israel and Iran have begun a new round of attacks as their conflict enters its fifth day. Tehran has reportedly urged several countries to pressure the US for an immediate ceasefire, but Israel signaled no interest. Adding to the bearish sentiment, fresh data showed New Zealand’s annual food inflation accelerated to 4.4% in May from 3.7% in April, the highest since December 2023. Investors are now awaiting key local data this week—including current account, consumer confidence, and Q1 GDP—for further economic clues. Among key stocks, notable losses were seen in Gentrack Group (-4.9%), Ryman Healthcare (-2.7%), Mercury NZ (-2.3%), Meridian Energy (-2.2%), and Fisher & Paykel (-1.9%).

周二，新西兰元跌至0.605美元左右，削减了前一交易日的大幅涨幅，因为投资者在中东紧张局势升级的情况下采取了避险措施。随着冲突进入第五天，以色列和伊朗开始了新一轮的袭击。据报道，德黑兰敦促几个国家向美国施压，要求立即停火，但以色列表示没有兴趣。在国内方面，最新数据显示，新西兰5月份的年度食品通胀率从4月份的3.7%加速至4.4%，为2023年12月以来的最高水平。这是因为市场现在只考虑了储备银行的一次降息，预计到11月，这将标志着宽松周期的结束。投资者正在等待本周的关键本地数据，包括经常账户、消费者信心和第一季度GDP，以获取进一步的经济线索。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.605 on Tuesday, trimming sharp gains from the previous session, as investors moved to risk-off positions amid escalating Middle East tensions. Israel and Iran have begun a new round of attacks as their conflict enters its fifth day. Tehran has reportedly urged several countries to pressure the US for an immediate ceasefire, but Israel signaled no interest. On the domestic front, fresh data showed New Zealand’s annual food inflation accelerated to 4.4% in May from 3.7% in April, the highest since December 2023. This comes as markets now price in just one more rate cut from the Reserve Bank, fully expected by November, marking the end of the easing cycle. Investors are awaiting key local data this week—including current account, consumer confidence, and Q1 GDP—for further economic clues.

周二上午，NZX 50几乎没有变化，在前一交易日稳步上涨后徘徊在12689附近。耐用消费品和电子技术的损失抵消了生产商制造业和能源矿产的收益。投资者消化了新的数据，显示新西兰食品通胀率从4月份的3.7%加速至5月份的17个月高点4.4%。焦点还转向了本周公布的关键国内数据，包括第一季度国内生产总值和经常账户余额。与此同时，由于中东紧张局势升级，美国期货大幅下跌，以色列承诺对伊朗进行进一步打击。在货币方面，美联储将于今天晚些时候开始政策会议，并于周三作出决定。尽管人们普遍预计利率将连续第四次保持不变，但日益加剧的地缘政治风险和油价上涨可能会抑制短期降息的希望。在个人板块中，AFT Pharma上涨1.9%，Skellerup上涨1.1%，而Mainfreight下跌1.4%，Restaurant Brands NZ下跌1.0%。

The NZX 50 was little changed on Tuesday morning, hovering near 12,689 after solid gains in the previous session. Losses in consumer durables and electronic tech offset gains in producer manufacturing and energy minerals. Investors digested fresh data showing New Zealand’s food inflation accelerated to a 17-month high of 4.4% in May from 3.7% in April. Focus also turned to key domestic data due this week, including Q1 GDP and the current account balance. Meanwhile, U.S. futures dropped sharply amid escalating Middle East tensions, with Israel pledging further strikes on Iran. On the monetary front, the Fed will kick off its policy meeting later today, with a decision on Wednesday. While rates are widely expected to stay unchanged for the fourth straight time, mounting geopolitical risks and higher oil prices could dampen hopes for near-term cuts. Among individual movers, AFT Pharma rose 1.9% and Skellerup gained 1.1%, while Mainfreight lost 1.4% and Restaurant Brands NZ slipped 1.0%.