纽币/瑞郎 (NZDCHF) 加自选

周四，新西兰元跌至0.591美元，延续了前一交易日的跌势，此前低于预期的GDP数据推动了降息押注。新西兰经济在截至6月的三个月里萎缩了0.9%，比第一季度修正后的0.9%增长率后预测的0.3%的收缩率还要糟糕。年度GDP下降0.6%，而预期没有变化。经济衰退是广泛的，建筑业仍在衰退，在美国关税的压力下，制造业受到商品出口放缓的打击。市场现在暗示新西兰储备银行将降息约58个基点，高于GDP数据公布前的48个基点，并在10月的会议上预计降息50个基点的可能性为20%。与此同时，在美国，美联储如普遍预期的那样降息，但表示将采取谨慎的方式进一步放松货币政策。

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.591 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after weaker-than-expected GDP figures fueled bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% in the three months through June, worse than the forecasted 0.3% contraction, following a revised 0.9% growth in the first quarter. Annual GDP decreased 0.6%, compared with expectations for no change. The downturn was broad-based, with the construction sector remaining in decline and manufacturing hit by slowing goods exports, amid pressure from US tariffs. Markets now imply about 58 basis points of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, up from 48bps before the GDP data was released, and assign a 20% probability of a larger 50 basis point cut at the October meeting. Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as widely expected but signaled a measured approach to further monetary policy easing.

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度同比收缩0.6%，延续了上一季度0.6%的下降趋势，打破了持平增长的预期。经济衰退的原因是商品生产行业下降4.7%（第一季度为-2.8%），建筑业（-7.6%对-8%）和制造业（-3.2%对+2%）大幅下降。相比之下，服务业增长0.5%，高于第一季度的0.1%，而第一产业小幅增长0.1%，低于此前的0.5%。按季度计算，GDP下降0.9%，扭转了第一季度0.9%的增长。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, extending the 0.6% decline seen in the previous quarter and defying expectations of flat growth. The downturn was driven by a 4.7% drop in goods-producing industries (vs. -2.8% in Q1), with sharp declines in construction (-7.6% vs. -8%) and manufacturing (-3.2% vs. +2%). In contrast, service industries grew 0.5%, up from a 0.1% rise in Q1, while the primary sector inched up 0.1%, slowing from 0.5% growth previously. On a quarterly basis, GDP fell 0.9%, reversing a 0.9% expansion in the first quarter.

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度环比收缩0.9%，扭转了上一季度向上修正的0.8%的增长，超过了市场预期的0.2%的下降。这场经济衰退结束了连续两个季度的经济增长，此前经济连续收缩。按行业划分，初级产出下降了0.3%（第一季度为+0.5%），而商品生产行业下降了（第二季度为-3.5%对+2.4%），其中采矿业（-4.1%对+1%）和制造业（-2.4%对+0.1%）大幅下降。服务业总体持平，运输、邮政和仓储（-0.6%对+0.6%）、医疗保健和社会援助（-0.7%对+1.7%）以及金融和保险服务（-0.5%对-0.5%）显著下降。相比之下，批发贸易（+1.4%对-0.4%）、信息媒体和电信（+1.8%对-0.8%）以及租赁、雇佣和房地产服务（+0.7%对+0.3%）均有所上涨。按年度计算，第二季度GDP收缩0.6%，与第一季度的下降速度相匹配。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% decline. This downturn ended two straight quarters of growth that followed back-to-back contractions. By industry, primary output fell 0.3% (vs. +0.5% in Q1), while goods-producing industries dropped (-3.5% vs. +2.4% in Q1), led by steep declines in mining (-4.1% vs. +1%) and manufacturing (-2.4% vs. +0.1%). The services sector was broadly flat, with notable declines in transport, postal and warehousing (-0.6% vs. +0.6%), healthcare and social assistance (-0.7% vs. +1.7%), and financial and insurance services (-0.5% vs. -0.5%). In contrast, wholesale trade (+1.4% vs. -0.4%), information media and telecommunications (+1.8% vs. -0.8%), and rental, hiring and real estate services (+0.7% vs. +0.3%) posted gains. On an annual basis, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q2, matching the pace of decline in the first quarter.

新西兰股市周四早盘下跌45点，跌幅0.3%，至13184点，较前一交易日进一步下跌，触及两周来的最低水平。新西兰50指数下跌，此前最新数据显示，新西兰第二季度国内生产总值环比收缩0.9%，收缩幅度大于市场预期（0.3%），同比意外收缩0.6%。周三的报告显示，在生活成本上升和经济不确定性持续存在的情况下，消费者对该国的信心仍然疲软。美联储的降息未能提振市场情绪，因为它符合市场预期，投资者仍在消化其最新的经济预测。几乎所有行业都出现了亏损，公用事业、通信服务和非必需消费品领涨。早期失败者包括Hallenstein Glasson（-1.5%）、Chorus（-1.4%）、Meridian Energy（-1.2%）、Mercury NZ（-0.7%）和Fletcher Building（-0.6%）。

Equities in New Zealand fell 45 points, or 0.3%, to 13,184 in morning trade on Thursday, deepening losses from the previous session and hitting their lowest level in two weeks. The NZX 50 dropped after fresh data showed that New Zealand's GDP shrank by 0.9% QoQ in Q2, a steeper contraction than the market expected (0.3%) and an unexpected contraction of 0.6% YoY. The data followed Wednesday’s report showing that consumer confidence in the country remained weak amid rising living costs and ongoing economic uncertainty. The Fed's rate cut failed to lift sentiment, as it met market expectations and investors were still digesting its updated economic projections. Almost all sectors traded in the red, led by utilities, communication services, and consumer discretionary. Among early losers were Hallenstein Glasson (-1.5%), Chorus (-1.4%), Meridian Energy (-1.2%), Mercury NZ (-0.7%), and Fletcher Building (-0.6%).