纽币/挪威克朗 (NZDNOK) 加自选

周四，韩元兑美元汇率跌至1383韩元左右，抹去了早些时候的涨幅，因为美联储政策会议结束后，市场恢复了谨慎。美联储将基准利率下调至4.00-4.25%，这是自去年12月以来的首次下调，并表示今年将再降息两次。虽然此举最初削弱了美元并提振了亚洲货币，但主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对“具有挑战性”的前景的警告缓和了市场情绪。由于美韩利率差距仍为1.75个百分点，韩元仍面临下行压力，这加大了资本外流的风险。增加压力的是，韩国央行会议纪要显示，大多数董事会成员支持进一步降息以应对美国关税逆风，尽管债务风险限制了行动。董事会以6比1的投票结果将利率维持在2.50%，但其倾向于宽松政策的倾向增强了人们对未来宽松政策的预期。

The South Korean won slipped to around 1,383 per dollar on Thursday, erasing earlier gains as caution returned following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Fed cut its benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25%, its first reduction since December, and signaled two more cuts this year. While the move initially weakened the dollar and boosted Asian currencies, Chair Jerome Powell’s warning of a “challenging” outlook tempered sentiment. With the US–South Korea rate gap still at 1.75 percentage points, downside pressure on the won remains, heightening the risk of capital outflows. Adding to the pressure, minutes from the Bank of Korea’s meeting showed most board members backing further rate cuts to counter US tariff headwinds, though debt risks limited action. The board voted 6–1 to hold rates at 2.50%, but its lean toward looser policy reinforced expectations for easing ahead.

周四，新西兰元跌至0.591美元，延续了前一交易日的跌势，此前低于预期的GDP数据推动了降息押注。新西兰经济在截至6月的三个月里萎缩了0.9%，比第一季度修正后的0.9%增长率后预测的0.3%的收缩率还要糟糕。年度GDP下降0.6%，而预期没有变化。经济衰退是广泛的，建筑业仍在衰退，在美国关税的压力下，制造业受到商品出口放缓的打击。市场现在暗示新西兰储备银行将降息约58个基点，高于GDP数据公布前的48个基点，并在10月的会议上预计降息50个基点的可能性为20%。与此同时，在美国，美联储如普遍预期的那样降息，但表示将采取谨慎的方式进一步放松货币政策。

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.591 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after weaker-than-expected GDP figures fueled bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% in the three months through June, worse than the forecasted 0.3% contraction, following a revised 0.9% growth in the first quarter. Annual GDP decreased 0.6%, compared with expectations for no change. The downturn was broad-based, with the construction sector remaining in decline and manufacturing hit by slowing goods exports, amid pressure from US tariffs. Markets now imply about 58 basis points of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, up from 48bps before the GDP data was released, and assign a 20% probability of a larger 50 basis point cut at the October meeting. Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as widely expected but signaled a measured approach to further monetary policy easing.

周四，离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至7.10左右，结束了三天的连胜，并在前一交易日触及十多个月高点。这一下跌是在美元反弹之后出现的，因为投资者重新评估了美联储对未来降息的谨慎立场。尽管美联储周三公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的言论——将其描述为应对劳动力市场疲软的“风险管理”措施——抑制了对激进宽松政策的预期，从而提振了美元。在中国，韩正副总统宣布了在中美贸易紧张局势持续的情况下升级与东盟自由贸易协定的计划。他在南宁举行的中国-东盟博览会上发表讲话，强调了与10个成员国集团的更深入合作。财政部数据显示，在经济方面，2025年前八个月财政收入同比增长0.3%，略高于1月至7月期间的0.1%。

The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.10 per dollar on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak and after touching a more than ten-month high in the previous session. The decline followed a rebound in the US dollar, as investors reassessed the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts. While the Fed delivered a widely expected 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments—describing it as a “risk-management” measure in response to a softening labor market—dampened expectations for aggressive easing, lifting the dollar. In China, Vice President Han Zheng announced plans to upgrade the free trade agreement with ASEAN amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. Speaking at the China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning, he emphasized deeper cooperation with the 10-member bloc. On the economic front, fiscal revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, slightly up from a 0.1% rise in the January–July period, according to the Finance Ministry.

周四，金价徘徊在每盎司3650美元左右，在美联储政策决定后美元上涨的情况下，保持了前一交易日的跌幅。美联储按预期降息25个基点，并表示借贷成本可能在今年剩余时间内继续逐步下降。然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）对进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度，称此举是应对劳动力市场疲软的风险管理措施。他补充说，央行将采取“逐个会议”的方式来评估未来的利率走势。今年到目前为止，黄金价格上涨了39%，这得益于美联储放松预期、持续的地缘政治紧张局势和强劲的央行需求。在其他地方，印度二手黄金首饰和硬币的供应仍然有限，因为投资者持有金条，尽管每周创下历史新高，但预计价格将进一步上涨。

Gold hovered around $3,650 per ounce on Thursday, holding losses from the previous session, amid a rising US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected and signaled that borrowing costs may continue to decline gradually through the rest of the year. However, Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing, describing the move as a risk-management measure in response to a softening labor market. He added that the central bank will take a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to assessing the future path of interest rates. Gold has risen 39% so far this year, supported by Fed easing expectations, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand. Elsewhere, supplies of used gold jewelry and coins in India remain limited, as investors hold onto bullion, anticipating further price gains despite weekly record highs.