美元/瑞郎 (USDCHF) 加自选

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率在0.79左右走强，为9月中旬以来的最高点，在两家地区银行报告不良贷款后，投资者纷纷涌向避险资产，对美国金融体系的担忧加剧。美中贸易紧张局势、美国政府持续停摆以及美联储降息预期也支撑着人民币汇率。在国内，瑞士经济增长前景减弱，此前国家经济事务秘书处（SECO）以美国关税和法郎走强为由，将2026年国内生产总值预测下调至0.9%。预计2025年和2026年的通货膨胀率将分别保持在0.2%和0.5%，这增强了人们对瑞士国家银行（SNB）将在货币政策上保持谨慎立场的预期。

The Swiss franc was firmer around 0.79 per USD, its highest since mid-September, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over the US financial system after two regional banks reported bad loans. The currency also remained supported by US-China trade tensions, the ongoing US government shutdown, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Domestically, the Swiss growth outlook weakened after the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9%, citing US tariffs and a strong franc. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy.

英镑兑美元延续连胜。英镑兑美元延续连胜

Pound Sterling extends winning streak against US Dollar.Pound Sterling extends winning streak against US Dollar

由于美国政府停摆和美联储降息押注，美元指数跌至98.00。由于美国政府停摆和美联储降息押注，美元指数跌至98.00

US Dollar Index falls toward 98.00 due to US government shutdown, Fed rate cut bets.US Dollar Index falls toward 98.00 due to US government shutdown, Fed rate cut bets

周五，美国10年期国债收益率降至3.95%左右，为4月以来的最低水平，因为对信贷市场风险的担忧再次推动了对避险资产的需求。Zions和Western Alliance的股价暴跌超过10%，此前两家银行均披露了与两家交易对手的不良贷款，加剧了汽车零部件制造商First Brands和次级贷款机构Tricolor最近破产后的担忧。美中贸易紧张局势加剧、美国政府长期停摆以及美联储进一步降息的预期也影响了收益率。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四表示，在劳动力市场风险上升的情况下，他支持本月再次降息，而美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰呼吁采取更积极的宽松政策。美联储的褐皮书进一步暗示了经济压力，理由是中低收入家庭的裁员增加和支出疲软。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to around 3.95% on Friday, its lowest level since April, as renewed concerns over credit market risks drove demand for safe-haven assets. Shares of Zions and Western Alliance plunged more than 10% after both banks disclosed bad loans with two counterparties, amplifying worries following recent bankruptcies of auto parts maker First Brands and subprime lender Tricolor. Mounting US-China trade tensions, the prolonged US government shutdown, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts also weighed on yields. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he supports another rate cut this month amid rising labor market risks, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for more aggressive easing. The Fed’s Beige Book further signaled economic strain, citing increased layoffs and weaker spending among middle- and lower-income households.