美元/瑞郎 (USDCHF) 加自选

摩根士丹利表示，美元明年上半年将面临困境，随后将复苏。该公司预测，美元指数将在今年上半年跌至94，然后在2026年底反弹至目前的99左右。这是因为他们看到，在美国关税的影响下，全球经济增长放缓，有可能形成更K型的经济。

Morgan Stanley says dollar to struggle in first half of next year before recovering later.The firm is forecasting the dollar index to drop all the way down to 94 in the first half of the year before rebounding back to around current levels at 99 by the end of 2026. That as they see slower global growth amid US tariffs, with the potential for a more K-shaped economy.

市场为美国大量数据发布做好准备。周中发布了关键数据，包括英国10月CPI和周三的FOMC会议纪要。周四，人们的注意力将转向欧元区11月的消费者信心。

Markets Brace for a Flood of US Data Releases.Midweek brings key releases, including the UK October CPI and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. On Thursday, attention will shift to euro area November consumer confidence.

市场情绪谨慎但并非负面，美国数据有望重启。本周亚洲市场的情绪开始时较为疲软，尽管到目前为止回落得到了很好的控制。基调更为谨慎，而非消极，投资者不愿在繁忙的全球数据公布和美国宏观经济数据回归之前采取强硬立场。

Sentiment Cautious But Not Negative, US Data Reboot Awaited.Sentiment in Asian markets started the week on the softer side, though the pullback has been well contained so far. The tone was more cautious than negative, with investors reluctant to take strong positions ahead of a busy global data schedule and the return of U.S. macro releases.

提醒：美国9月非农就业数据将于本周公布。综合考虑，这份报告将是一个滞后的数据点。然而，这至少是在美国政府历史上最长时间停摆后试图重新拼凑局面的一个开始。

Reminder: US non-farm payrolls for September will be released this week.The report will very much be a lagging data point, all things considered. However, it's at least a start in trying to piece back together the picture after the longest US government shutdown in history.