加元/瑞郎 (CADCHF) 加自选

贸易和就业数据显示加拿大经济对关税的反应。我们预计，加拿大3月份的贸易平衡将恢复顺差，4月份劳动力市场将裁员更多，这是加拿大经济如何随着美国关税的开始而发展的早期迹象。

Trade and Employment Data to Show How Canadian Economy Reacted to Tariffs.We expect Canada's trade balance swung back to a surplus in March and the labour market shed more jobs in April as early signs of how the Canadian economy evolved with the onset of U.S. tariffs.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨0.8%，收于25000点以上，标志着连续第四周上涨，因为美中贸易紧张局势的缓解和强于预期的美国就业报告提振了投资者情绪。工业板块走强领涨。在北京表示愿意恢复贸易谈判后，乐观情绪有所增长，前提是美国降低关税，缓解对长期贸易摩擦的担忧。在企业方面，麦格纳国际（-5.6%）未达到盈利预期，调整后的第一季度每股收益为0.78美元，并宣布为应对美国关税而削减成本。相比之下，庞巴迪（+4.1%）公布了乐观的业绩，第一季度收入增长19%，达到15亿美元，这得益于飞机交付量的增加和服务业务的增长。该公司还恢复了全年的指导方针，预计2025年的收入将超过92.5亿美元。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose over 0.8% on Friday to close above the 25,000 level, marking its fourth straight weekly gain, as easing US-China trade tensions and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report lifted investor sentiment. The rally was led by strength in the industrial sector. Optimism grew after Beijing signaled a willingness to resume trade talks, contingent on the US scaling back tariffs, easing concerns over prolonged trade frictions. On the corporate front, Magna International (-5.6%) missed earnings expectations with adjusted first-quarter EPS of $0.78 and announced cost-cutting efforts in response to US tariffs. In contrast, Bombardier (+4.1%) delivered upbeat results, with a 19% jump in first-quarter revenue to $1.5 billion, driven by increased aircraft deliveries and growth in its services business. The company also reinstated its full-year guidance, projecting 2025 revenue to surpass $9.25 billion.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.5%，徘徊在24900点上方，追随美国股市的积极势头，此前美国强劲的就业报告打消了人们对美国即将陷入衰退的担忧。重量级金融板块因受美国信贷需求影响而成为涨幅最大的板块之一，蒙特利尔银行、加拿大皇家银行和道明银行的涨幅均在2%至0.6%之间。受美国经济影响的工业和科技股也有所上涨，加拿大国家铁路上涨2.5%，Shopify上涨0.7%。在收益方面，帝国石油公司股价上涨1.5%，此前该能源生产商第一季度公布了好于预期的利润率。

The S&P/TSX Composite index was 0.5% higher to hover above the 24,900 mark on Friday, tracking the positive momentum for equities in the US after their strong jobs report pushed back concerns of an imminent recession in the United States. The heavyweight financial sector was among the top gainers due to their exposure to US credit demand, with BMO, RBC, and TD all adding between 2% and 0.6%. Industrials and tech with exposure to the US economy also advanced, led by a 2.5% surge for the Canadian National Railway and 0.7% jump for Shopify. On the earnings front, Imperial Oil shares rose 1.5% after the energy producer posted better than expected margins in the first quarter.

加元兑美元汇率为1.38，接近去年10月以来的最高点，并在国内经济衰退和美元疲软的担忧减弱的情况下，追随其他G10货币的强劲势头。尽管加拿大主要大宗商品价格下跌，加上对该国与美国贸易战的经济悲观情绪，加拿大3月份的国内生产总值略有增长，这支持了人们对加拿大可能对美国疲软有一定弹性的预期。在政治方面，加拿大自由党以相对较小的优势连续第四次赢得选举，在多数党获胜的预期之后，对加元施加了轻微压力，但仍使前中国银行和英国央行行长马克·卡尼成为少数派政府的总理。到目前为止，现任总统没有优先考虑与美国的贸易协议，强调了加拿大的影响力，并选择与其他国家达成协议。

The Canadian dollar was at 1.38 per USD, trading close to its strongest since October of last year and tracking the strong momentum for other G10 currencies amid softer concerns of a recession domestically and a weak dollar. The Canadian GDP expanded slightly in March despite the drop in prices for key Canadian commodities and economic pessimism for the country's trade war with the US, backing expectations that it may be somewhat resilient to weakness in the US. On the political front, the Canadian Liberal Party won a fourth consecutive election by a relatively narrow margin, placing slight pressure on the loonie following expectations of a majority win, but still making former BoC and BoE Governor Mark Carney Prime Minister of a minority government. The incumbent has so far refrained from prioritizing a trade deal with the US, underscoring Canada's leverage and opting to secure deals with other nations.