新加坡元/瑞郎 (SGDCHF) 加自选

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率徘徊在0.79左右，为2011年7月以来的最高水平，在美联储最新降息决定和谨慎指导后，美元普遍稳定。25个基点的降息正如预期的那样，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只有一次，这抑制了明年多次降息的希望。在国内方面，瑞士国家银行（SNB）将于9月25日宣布其下一个政策决定，市场预计利率将保持在零不变。更广泛的通货膨胀率仍在瑞士国家银行（SNB）0-2%的目标范围内，这降低了进一步宽松政策的紧迫性。瑞士央行主席马丁·施莱格尔最近指出，储户和养老基金面临负利率的风险，这表明该行不愿将利率降至零以下。与此同时，法国和日本持续的政治和财政担忧，以及地缘政治紧张局势，也支撑了对法郎的避险需求。

The Swiss franc hovered around 0.79 per USD, its highest level since July 2011, amid a broadly stable dollar following the Fed’s latest decision to cut interest rates and cautious guidance. The 25-basis-point rate cut came as expected, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting at two more this year—but just one in 2026—dampening hopes of multiple cuts next year. On the domestic front, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set to announce its next policy decision on September 25, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged at zero. Broader inflation remains comfortably within the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0-2% target range, reducing the urgency for further easing. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently noted the risks of negative rates for savers and pension funds, signaling the bank’s reluctance to cut below zero. Meanwhile, persistent political and fiscal concerns in France and Japan, along with geopolitical tensions, also underpin safe-haven demand for the franc.

瑞士的贸易顺差从7月份的42亿瑞士法郎收窄至2025年8月的39亿瑞士法郎，为三个月来的最低水平。出口环比下滑1.0%，至220亿瑞士法郎，受手表（-8.6%）和珠宝（-7.5%）销售额下降的拖累。对美国的出口暴跌22.1%（-8.73亿瑞士法郎），为2020年底以来的最低水平，因为华盛顿对瑞士商品征收39%的关税（全球最高之一）继续抑制需求。相比之下，对欧洲的出口增长了1.6%，受奥地利（+43.2%）、波兰（+37.2%）和法国（+23.9%）的推动。与此同时，进口增长0.4%，至181亿瑞士法郎，受能源（+11.6%）、汽车（+2.7%）和化学药品（+0.5%）购买量增加的支撑。在供应商中，奥地利（+13.9%）和斯洛文尼亚（+23.7%）录得显著增长，而德国则大幅下降6.8%，为2020年12月以来的最大跌幅。

Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to CHF 3.9 billion in August 2025 from CHF 4.2 billion in July, the lowest in three months. Exports slipped 1.0% month-on-month to CHF 22.0 billion, weighed down by lower sales of watches (-8.6%) and jewelry (-7.5%). Exports to the US plunged 22.1% (-CHF 873 million), its weakest level since late 2020, as the impact of Washington’s 39% tariff on Swiss goods—one of the highest globally—continued to curb demand. By contrast, exports to Europe rose 1.6%, boosted by Austria (+43.2%), Poland (+37.2%), and France (+23.9%). Meanwhile, imports rose 0.4% to CHF 18.1 billion, supported by higher purchases of energy (+11.6%), vehicles (+2.7%), and chemical-pharmaceutical products (+0.5%). Among suppliers, Austria (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+23.7%) recorded notable increases, while Germany posted a sharp decline of 6.8%, its steepest since December 2020.

新加坡经季节性调整的失业率在2025年第二季度从最初估计的2.1%略微下调至2%，与上一季度持平。这标志着自2024年第一季度以来的最高水平，尽管这仍然反映了在经济持续增长的情况下劳动力市场的弹性。本季度总就业人数大幅增长（10400人，而第一季度为2300人），这得益于居民（+2600人）和非居民就业人数（+7800人）的大幅增长。与此同时，裁员保持稳定（3540对3590），尽管劳动力市场有疲软的迹象。2025年第二季度的职位空缺从上一季度的81100个降至76900个，大多数行业的职位空缺都出现了广泛下降。尽管如此，劳动力需求继续超过供应，职位空缺与失业率之比为1.35。展望未来，全球不确定性预计将影响招聘和工资增长。

Singapore’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was revised slightly lower to 2% in the second quarter of 2025, from an initial estimate of 2.1%, and unchanged from the previous quarter. This marked the highest level since Q1 2024, though it still reflects a resilient labour market amid continued economic growth. Total employment rose significantly during the quarter (10,400 vs 2,300 in Q1), driven by larger gains in both resident (+2,600) and non-resident employment (+7,800). Meanwhile, retrenchments remained stable (3,540 vs 3,590), though there were signs of softening in the labour market. Job vacancies fell to 76,900 in Q2 2025, from 81,100 in the previous quarter, with broad-based declines across most sectors. Nonetheless, labour demand continued to outpace supply, with the job vacancy-to-unemployed ratio at 1.35. Looking ahead, global uncertainties are expected to weigh on hiring and wage growth.

新加坡的非石油国内出口（NODX）在7月份上调4.7%后，在2025年8月意外同比下降11.3%。这标志着今年迄今为止的第四次收缩，也是自2024年3月以来的最大跌幅，受到电子和非电子出口下降的拖累。非电子产品出口同比暴跌13.0%（7月份为-6.7%），受食品制剂（-51.4%）、专用机械（-29.1%）和石化产品（-23.2%）大幅下降的拖累。与此同时，电子产品出口下降6.5%，扭转了7月份2.7%的增长，原因是个人电脑（-36.9%）、磁盘介质产品（-28.1%）和集成电路（-7.4%）的出货量下降。由于美国新征收的关税，运往美国的货物大幅下降（-28.8%）。对印度尼西亚（-39.6%）、中国（-21.5%）、香港（-20.9%）和泰国（-20.0%）的出口也有所下降。相比之下，对韩国（24.8%）、台湾（9.1%）和欧盟（28.9%）的出口增长。NODX在7月份下降6%后，每月下降8.9%。

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly slumped 11.3% year-on-year in August 2025, following an upwardly revised 4.7% decline in July. This marked the fourth contraction so far this year and the steepest drop since March 2024, weighed down by declines in both electronic and non-electronic exports. Non-electronic exports plunged 13.0% yoy (vs -6.7% in July), weighed down by sharp declines in food preparations (-51.4%), specialised machinery (-29.1%), and petrochemicals (-23.2%). Meanwhile, electronic exports fell 6.5%, reversing a 2.7% gain in July, due to decreases in shipments of PCs (-36.9%), disk media products (-28.1%), and ICs (-7.4%). Shipment slumped to the US (-28.8%), dampened by newly imposed American tariffs. Exports also dropped to Indonesia (-39.6%), China (-21.5%), Hong Kong (-20.9%), and Thailand (-20.0%). By contrast, exports grew to South Korea (24.8%), Taiwan (9.1%), and the EU (28.9%). Monthly, NODX dropped by 8.9%, following a 6% fall in July.