新加坡元/瑞郎 (SGDCHF) 加自选

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至近0.30%，为6月9日以来的最高水平，投资者已将通胀风险和地缘政治不稳定因素纳入考虑。中东紧张局势加剧，以色列和伊朗之间持续的空袭推高了油价，加剧了对通货膨胀的担忧。特朗普总统提前离开七国集团峰会后，投资者的焦虑情绪加剧，各国领导人正在讨论加沙、乌克兰和贸易问题。他呼吁撤离德黑兰并迅速返回华盛顿，这引发了人们对局势进一步升级的担忧。在此背景下，在关键的央行会议之前，尤其是美联储会议之前，人们普遍持谨慎态度。在当地，人们普遍预计瑞士国家银行将在6月19日的会议上降息至少25个基点，鉴于法郎走强和价格压力减弱，负利率仍有可能。此外，由于全球持续存在不确定性，瑞士对2025年和2026年的增长预测被下调。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to near 0.30%, its highest level since June 9, as investors priced in inflation risks and geopolitical instability. Tensions in the Middle East intensified, with ongoing airstrikes between Israel and Iran pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. Investor anxiety grew after President Trump left the G7 summit early, where leaders were discussing Gaza, Ukraine, and trade issues. His call to evacuate Tehran and swift return to Washington sparked fears of further escalation. Against this backdrop, caution prevails ahead of key central bank meetings, especially the Federal Reserve. Locally, the Swiss National Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its June 19 meeting, with negative rates still possible given the strength of the franc and subdued price pressures. Moreover, Switzerland’s growth projections for 2025 and 2026 were lowered amid persistent global uncertainties.

新加坡的非石油国内出口（NODX）在2025年5月意外同比下降3.5%，扭转了4月份12.4%的增长，并低于8.0%的增长预期。这标志着自1月以来非石油国内出口首次下降，也是七个月来最强劲的收缩，因为美国征收了新的关税，对美国的出口暴跌20.6%。受个人电脑（50.9%）、集成电路（49.0%）和消费电子产品（4.3%）销售的推动，电子产品出货量增长1.7%，较4月份的23.4%大幅放缓。此外，非电子产品出口下降5.3%，扭转了4月份9.3%的增长，受石化产品（-17.8%）、非货币黄金（-25.9%）和专业机械（-11.7%）的拖累。对泰国（-17.0%）、马来西亚（-7.6%）、日本（-7.4%）、中国（-3.0%）和欧盟（-4.8%）的出口也出现萎缩，对台湾（17.25%）的出口则飙升。每月，NODX暴跌12.0%，为2023年5月以来的最大跌幅，扭转了4月份10.4%的飙升，这是五个月来的最快速度。

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly slumped 3.5% yoy in May 2025, reversing a 12.4% jump in April and missing expectations of an 8.0% rise. This marked the first decline in non-oil domestic exports since January and the strongest contraction in seven months, amid the imposition of new US tariffs, with exports to the US plunging 20.6%. Electronic product shipments grew by 1.7%, easing sharply from a 23.4% surge in April, boosted by sales of PCs (50.9%), ICs (49.0%), and consumer electronics (4.3%). Additionally, non-electronic exports fell by 5.3%, reversing a 9.3% rise in April, weighed down by petrochemicals (-17.8%), non-monetary gold (-25.9%), and specialised machinery (-11.7%). Exports also shrank to Thailand (-17.0%), Malaysia (-7.6%), Japan (-7.4%), China (-3.0%), and the EU (-4.8%) while soaring to Taiwan (17.25%). Monthly, NODX plunged 12.0%, the steepest decline since May 2023, reversing a 10.4% surge in April, which was the fastest pace in five months.

周一，10年期瑞士政府债券收益率从盘中最高的0.32%降至0.31%以下，人们对中东冲突加剧的担忧有所减弱。有报道称，伊朗愿意恢复关于其核计划的谈判，前提是美国不参与袭击，市场情绪有所改善。与此同时，人们普遍预计美联储本周将再次保持利率稳定，交易员们对美联储将在最近通胀数据疲软和经济前景不确定的情况下很快恢复降息的押注有所缓和。在瑞士，预计瑞士央行将在即将召开的会议上降息至少25个基点，在法郎有弹性的情况下，仍有可能出现负利率。与此同时，瑞士政府下调了增长前景，目前预计2025年和2026年的增长率分别为1.3%和1.2%，均远低于1.8%的长期平均水平，因为出口导向型经济面临全球贸易战的不利影响。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond eased to below 0.31% on Monday from an intraday record of 0.32%, amid receding fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Sentiment improved after reports indicated that Iran is open to resuming negotiations on its nuclear program, contingent on the United States refraining from involvement in the attacks. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady again this week, with traders tempering bets that the central bank will resume cuts soon following recent soft inflation data and amid an uncertain economic outlook. In Switzerland, the SNB is anticipated to lower rates by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, with negative rates still a possibility amid a resilient franc. Meanwhile, the Swiss government cut its growth outlook, now expecting 1.3% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, both well below the 1.8% long-term average, as the export-heavy economy faces headwinds from the global trade war.

债券市场证实瑞士法郎走强。上周CPI的利好消息短暂推高了指数市场，但地缘政治发展和中东战争的威胁使市场下跌。在不确定性中，瑞士法郎如预期般进一步走强。

Bond Market Confirms Swiss Franc Strength.Last week's positive CPI news briefly pushed the indices market higher, but geopolitical developments and a threat of yet another war in the Middle East brought the market down. Amidst the uncertainty, the Swiss franc strengthened further, as expected.