2025年4月,日本的核心机械订单(不包括船舶和电力等波动性项目)环比下降9.1%,至9190亿日元,与3月13%的激增相比大幅逆转。这是自2020年4月新冠肺炎疫情最严重时期以来的最弱数据。非制造业领跌,订单暴跌11.8%,至4708亿日元。制造业订单也下降了0.6%,至4566亿日元。跌幅最大的是其他运输设备(-38.3%)、货物租赁(-31.2%)、其他非制造业(-29.5%)、金融和保险(-23.9%)以及汽车、零部件和配件(-20.3%)。按年度计算,4月份私营部门机械订单增长6.6%,较3月份的8.4%有所放缓,但超过了市场预期的4%。核心机械订单被认为是未来六到九个月资本支出的一个不稳定但关键的领先指标。
Japan’s core machinery orders—excluding volatile items such as ships and electric power—fell 9.1% month-over-month to ¥919 billion in April 2025, marking a sharp reversal from March’s 13% surge. This was the weakest reading since April 2020, during the height of the Covid pandemic. The non-manufacturing sector led the decline, with orders plunging 11.8% to ¥470.8 billion. Manufacturing orders also slipped, down 0.6% to ¥456.6 billion. The steepest drops came from other transport equipment (-38.3%), goods leasing (-31.2%), other non-manufacturing (-29.5%), finance and insurance (-23.9%), and automobiles, parts & accessories (-20.3%). On an annual basis, private-sector machinery orders rose 6.6% in April, easing from March’s 8.4% gain but exceeding market expectations of 4%. Core machinery orders are considered a volatile but key leading indicator of capital spending over the next six to nine months.