人民币/日元 (CNYJPY) 加自选

USD/JPY技术：日元预计将从5个月区间对美元出现中期牛市突破。在过去的四周里，美元兑几种主要货币大幅下跌，如欧元，欧元兑美元在9月16日星期二反弹至4年来的峰值，但美元兑日元的看跌势头滞后（见图1）。

USD/JPY Technical: Yen Eyeing a Medium-Term Bullish Breakout Against USD from a 5-month Range.In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1).

通胀和日本央行会议前日元表现喜忧参半。在日本9月16日至17日格林尼治标准时间隔夜报告贸易逆差明显低于预期后，日元兑美元等一些货币总体上涨，而兑欧元和英镑等其他货币则下跌。

Mixed Performance by the Yen Ahead of Inflation and the BoJ's Meeting.After Japan reported a significantly smaller trade deficit than expected overnight GMT 16-17 September, the yen has gained overall against some currencies like the US dollar while losing ground against others like the euro and pound sterling.

美元/日元预测：FOMC之前收益率持续疲软。美国债券收益率呈下降趋势，但周三上半月美元交易喜忧参半，兑日元和人民币下跌，兑大多数其他货币反弹。因此，美元指数有点稳定，在周二下跌后保持在7月低点96.37上方。

USD/JPY forecast: Yields weakness persists ahead of FOMC.US bond yields were heading lower, but the US dollar was trading mixed in the first half of Wednesday session, falling against the yen and yuan, and rebounding against most other currencies. The Dollar Index was therefore a little steady, holding above the July low of 96.37 after Tuesday's drop.

2025年8月，中国16至24岁城市青年失业率（不包括学生）从7月的17.8%上升到18.9%，略高于一年前的18.8%。这是自2023年12月以来的最高水平，当时北京修改了其方法，将仍在学校的人排除在外。这一增长反映了日益加剧的经济逆风，包括增长放缓、房地产和制造业持续疲软，以及毕业生技能与劳动力市场需求之间的不匹配。2023年6月，在青年失业率达到创纪录的21.3%后，中国统计局暂停发布青年失业数据，然后在当年晚些时候恢复使用更新的方法。与此同时，8月份所有年龄段的城市整体失业率从7月份的5.2%微升至5.3%。

China’s urban youth unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds, excluding students, rose to 18.9% in August 2025, up from 17.8% in July and slightly above 18.8% a year earlier. It marked the highest level since December 2023, when Beijing revised its methodology to exclude individuals still in school. The increase reflects mounting economic headwinds, including a slowdown in growth, persistent weakness in real estate and manufacturing, and a mismatch between graduates’ skills and labor market demand. China’s statistics bureau suspended the release of youth unemployment figures in June 2023, after the rate hit a record 21.3%, before resuming with the updated methodology later that year. Meanwhile, the overall urban unemployment rate across all age groups inched up to 5.3% in August from 5.2% in July.