瑞郎/日元 (CHFJPY) 加自选

2025年7月，日本核心机械订单（不包括船舶和电力等波动性行业）环比下降4.6%，至8980亿日元，扭转了6月份3%的增长，远低于1.7%的下降预期。非制造业领跌，下滑3.9%至5011亿日元，而制造业订单增长3.9%至4284亿日元。按行业划分，有色金属（-53.5%）、房地产（-44%）、采矿和采石（-21.2%）以及金融和保险（-16.7%）的收缩幅度最大。私营部门订单同比增长4.9%，低于6月份7.6%的增长率和5.4%的预期。核心机械订单被视为未来六到九个月资本支出的一个关键但不稳定的领先指标。

Japan’s core machinery orders—which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power—fell 4.6% month-over-month to ¥898 billion in July 2025, reversing a 3% increase in June and coming in well below expectations for a 1.7% decline. The drop was led by the non-manufacturing sector, which slipped 3.9% to ¥501.1 billion, while manufacturing orders rose 3.9% to ¥428.4 billion. By industry, the steepest contractions were recorded in non-ferrous metals (-53.5%), real estate (-44%), mining and quarrying (-21.2%) and finance and insurance (-16.7%). Year-on-year, private-sector orders rose 4.9%, easing from June’s 7.6% growth and missing forecasts of 5.4%. Core machinery orders are seen as a key yet volatile leading indicator of capital expenditure over the coming six to nine months.

日本机械订单同比增长4.9%（预计增长5.4%）。2025年7月日本核心机器订单数据。这些数据是未来六到九个月资本支出的领先指标。

Japan machinery orders +4.9% y/y (expected +5.4%).Japan core machine orders data for July 2025. These data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months.

周四交易日前，日元兑美元汇率约为146.5，接近美联储降息并暗示今年将进一步放松货币政策近两个月后的最高点。在国内，外汇流入缺乏商品贸易的提振，8月份出口下降0.1%，低于预期，但仍是连续第四个月下降，主要原因是对美国的出口下降13.8%。进口收缩5.2%，较7月份7.4%的下滑有所缓和，但超过了分析师预测的4.1%的下降。在货币政策方面，日本央行预计将在周五将利率稳定在0.5%，因为政策制定者正在权衡包括关税在内的国内外风险。尽管如此，稳定的通胀仍让人们对日本央行今年仍可能收紧政策的猜测挥之不去。

The Japanese yen traded around 146.5 per dollar ahead of Thursday's session, near its strongest almost two months after the Fed cut its rates and signaled further monetary easing for this year. Domestically, forex inflows lacked a boost from goods trade as exports fell 0.1% in August, less than expected but still the fourth consecutive monthly decline, led by a 13.8% drop in shipments to the US. Imports contracted 5.2%, moderating from July’s 7.4% slide yet surpassing the 4.1% decline forecast by analysts. On monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5% on Friday as policymakers weigh domestic and external risks, including tariffs. Still, steady inflation maintained lingering bets that the BoJ could still tighten policy this year.

美联储决定前美元上涨：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。外汇交易员等待鲍威尔的评论，这将对市场动态产生重大影响。

U.S. Dollar Gains Some Ground Ahead Of Fed Decision: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.Forex traders wait for Powell's comments, which will have a major impact on market dynamics.