澳元/日元 (AUDJPY) 加自选

预览：澳大利亚就业市场降温，失业率将小幅上升（澳元疲软）。周四劳动力数据公布前，澳大利亚主要银行表示，尽管失业率略有上升，但澳大利亚就业市场似乎仍将保持广泛弹性。

Preview: Australia's jobs market cooling as unemployment set to rise modestly (muted AUD).Australia's jobs market looks set to remain broadly resilient even as the unemployment rate edges higher, according to the country's major banks ahead of Thursday's labour force data.

亚洲经济日历9月18日星期四-新西兰第二季度GDP和澳大利亚就业报告。新西兰的经济增长数据预计不会给人留下深刻印象。预计季度环比有所下降，而同比应比第一季度持平。

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, September 18 - NZ Q2 GDP & Australian jobs report.New Zealand economic growth data is expected not to impress. Q/q is estimated to have declined and while y/y should improve from Q1 flat is expected.

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The Australian dollar inched down to $0.667 ahead of Thursday's session from the 11-month high of $0.67 touched earlier in the week after the Fed cut its rates by 25bps, but the greenback refrained from depreciating as projections of strong inflation prevented sharper bets of loosening by the FOMC. Domestically, the jobs report is expected to show 20K–25K new positions with unemployment steady at 4.2%, a key input for the RBA’s policy path. Markets now assign minimal odds to a September cut, with November easing bets trimmed to 70% on the back of solid recent data. On the geopolitical front, the US and China, Australia's top trading partners, reached a deal to place TikTok under US ownership, with final approval expected in a Friday call between Presidents Trump and Xi.

周四交易日前，日元兑美元汇率约为146.5，接近美联储降息并暗示今年将进一步放松货币政策近两个月后的最高点。在国内，外汇流入缺乏商品贸易的提振，8月份出口下降0.1%，低于预期，但仍是连续第四个月下降，主要原因是对美国的出口下降13.8%。进口收缩5.2%，较7月份7.4%的下滑有所缓和，但超过了分析师预测的4.1%的下降。在货币政策方面，日本央行预计将在周五将利率稳定在0.5%，因为政策制定者正在权衡包括关税在内的国内外风险。尽管如此，稳定的通胀仍让人们对日本央行今年仍可能收紧政策的猜测挥之不去。

The Japanese yen traded around 146.5 per dollar ahead of Thursday's session, near its strongest almost two months after the Fed cut its rates and signaled further monetary easing for this year. Domestically, forex inflows lacked a boost from goods trade as exports fell 0.1% in August, less than expected but still the fourth consecutive monthly decline, led by a 13.8% drop in shipments to the US. Imports contracted 5.2%, moderating from July’s 7.4% slide yet surpassing the 4.1% decline forecast by analysts. On monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5% on Friday as policymakers weigh domestic and external risks, including tariffs. Still, steady inflation maintained lingering bets that the BoJ could still tighten policy this year.