加元/日元 (CADJPY) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨1.1%，收于29768点，创下历史新高，表现优于美国同行，因为贵金属生产商飙升，利率敏感的科技和金融公司受到中国银行和美联储最近降息以及明年进一步宽松预期的支持。主要矿商表现优异，Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious Metals、Barrick和Franco-Nevada飙升2.7%至9.7%。在其他地方，大型股Brookfield和Shopify分别上涨1.5%和0.9%，引领其行业上涨。在经济方面，初步估计显示，8月份加拿大零售额环比增长约1%，为今年第二大增幅，足以抵消7月份0.8%的下降，同时与市场预测相符。多伦多交易所连续第七周上涨，同期上涨1.7%。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% to a record close of 29,768 on Friday, outperforming US peers as precious metals producers surged and rate sensitive technology and financial names drew support from recent BoC and Fed cuts and from expectations of further easing next year. Major miners outperformed with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick and Franco Nevada surging between 2.7% and 9.7%. Elsewhere, mega caps Brookfield and Shopify added 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively to lead their sector’s advance. On the economic front, preliminary estimates point to a roughly 1% month over month jump in Canadian retail sales in August, the second largest gain this year and enough to offset July’s 0.8% decline while matching market forecasts. The Toronto exchange recorded its seventh straight weekly advance, rising 1.7% for the period.

美联储降息后美元反弹：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/日元、美元/加元。美联储并没有控制整个美国收益率曲线，这一点在本周得到了充分体现，因为即使美联储降息，美国国债收益率也在飙升。这就像去年所显示的那样，美联储降息引发了股市反弹和债券抛售，在这种情况下，这些举措一直持续到年底。

USD Rallies After Fed Cuts: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD.The Fed doesn't control the entire US yield curve, and that was on full display this week as Treasury yields jumped even as the Fed cut rates. This is like what showed last year, as Fed rate cuts sparked a rally in stocks and a sell-off in bonds and in that instance, the moves ran into the end of the year.

美元/日元预测：日本央行更新后日元拒绝让步。在本周的最后一个交易日，美元/日元录得0.12%的温和波动，但随着市场犹豫不决的加剧，再次开始显示出轻微的看跌倾向。这种行为反映了本周央行最近决策的影响。

USD/JPY Forecast: The Yen Refuses to Give Ground After BOJ Updates.In the last trading session of the week, USD/JPY recorded a moderate variation of 0.12%, but has once again begun to show a slight bearish bias as market indecision grows. This behavior reflects the influence of recent central bank decisions throughout the week.

在新的国内数据和重新调整的政策预期为加元设定了底部后，加元兑美元汇率下跌，升至1.375，接近9月高点。提前估计显示，8月份零售额增长约1.0%，抹去了7月份0.8%的跌幅，表明家庭需求比市场担忧的更强劲，这降低了加拿大银行大幅宽松周期的可能性。中国央行在经历了比预期更严重的放缓后，将政策利率下调25个基点至2.5%，其中包括第二季度国内生产总值收缩1.6%和出口暴跌约27%，而劳动力市场恶化，8月份净失业和失业率接近7.1%，缓解了工资压力，并支持了放宽政策的理由。与此同时，在美联储降息25个基点和鲍威尔主席的谨慎评论之后，美元一直在波动，随着市场消化了美联储修订后的前景，美元先是走弱，然后又重新走强。

The Canadian dollar strengthened toward 1.375 per US dollar approaching September highs after losing ground after fresh domestic data and recalibrated policy expectations put a floor under the currency. Advance estimates showed retail sales rising about 1.0% in August, erasing July’s 0.8% decline and signalling firmer household demand than markets feared, which reduced the odds of a steep easing cycle by the Bank of Canada. The BoC cut its policy rate 25bp to 2.5% after a sharper slowdown than expected, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a roughly 27% collapse in exports, while labour market deterioration with net job losses and unemployment near 7.1% in August eased wage pressures and supported the case for easier policy. At the same time the US dollar has been volatile after the Federal Reserve’s 25bp cut and Chair Powell’s cautious commentary, with the dollar first weakening then regaining strength as markets digested the Fed’s revised outlook.