加元/日元 (CADJPY) 加自选

尽管美国最近提高了关税，但CUSMA豁免仍然有效；加拿大就业形势趋于稳定。《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）关税从25%提高到35%，但仍仅适用于不符合自由贸易CUSMA/USMCA的贸易部分。根据我们的计算，这一豁免使加拿大大部分出口产品能够免税进入美国市场，并且仍然有效。

CUSMA Exemption Holds Up Despite Latest U.S. Tariff Hike; Canada's Jobs to Show Stabilization.The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff increased from 25% to 35%, but still only applies to the portion of trade that is not compliant with the free trade CUSMA/USMCA. That exemption is maintaining duty free access to the U.S. market for the majority of Canadian exports by our calculations, and remains in place.

美元/日元价格预测：受美国疲软数据影响，下跌超过2%，跌至147.50以下。美元/日元本周将下跌0.18%，此前美国公布的就业报告低于预期，为避险需求打开了大门，推动日元走高。这一点，再加上美国国债收益率的下降，导致该货币对暴跌2%以上，从150.91左右跌至147.28。

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slides over 2% on weak US data, tumbles below 147.50.The USD/JPY is set to end the week with losses of 0.18% after a worse-than-expected employment report in the United States (US) opened the gates for safe-haven demand, pushing the Japanese Yen higher. This, along with falling US Treasury yields, sent the pair plummeting more than 2%, from around 150.91 to 147.28.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.9%，收于27020点，在特朗普总统突然颁布行政命令，对USMCA未涵盖的大多数加拿大出口产品征收35%的税，打击资源和行业名称后，该指数每周下跌1.7%。电子商务巨头Shopify是受影响最严重的公司之一，由于其服务的需求前景恶化，跌幅为3.4%，进一步受到同行亚马逊令人失望的收益的拖累。金融股也面临压力，权重股布鲁克菲尔德下跌2.9%，领跌该行业。与此同时，美国7月非农就业人数仅增加73000人，与前几个月相比大幅下调，令人失望，这降低了增长前景，加剧了人们对加拿大出口需求的担忧，尤其是能源需求。权重股加拿大天然气公司、森科尔公司和Cenovus公司的股价下跌了1.5%至3.1%。

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.9% to close at 27,020 on Friday, dragging weekly losses to 1.7% after President Trump’s abrupt executive order ushered in a 35% levy on most Canadian exports not covered by USMCA, hitting resource and industrial names. E-commerce giant Shopify was among the hardest hit, shedding 3.4% as the demand outlook for its services deteriorated, further weighed down by peer Amazon’s disappointing earnings. Financials also came under pressure, with heavyweight Brookfield losing 2.9% to lead the sector’s decline. At the same time, US July nonfarm payrolls disappointed with just 73,000 jobs added and deep downward revisions to prior months, dimming the growth outlook and fueling concerns over demand for Canadian exports, particularly energy. Heavyweights Canadian Natural, Suncor, and Cenovus lost between 1.5% and 3.1%.

周五，加元因NFP波动而连续下跌。周五，美国非农就业数据（NFP）的混乱发布打破了美元（USD）的全球定位，加元（CAD）位居榜首。美元全面下跌，此前几个月美国净新增就业人数远低于预期，面临大幅下行修正。

Canadian Dollar snaps losing streak on volatile NFP Friday.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) came out on top after a messy US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release shattered global positioning in the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The Greenback fell across the board after US net job additions fell well short of expectations, with previous months facing sharp downside revisions.