下一周：特朗普后退一步。英国石油价格从数月低点反弹英国石油价格仍然看涨，因为投资者权衡了欧佩克+潜在的增产和美中贸易谈判的积极进展。随着最近征收的全球关税的不确定性继续存在，黑金在4月的大部分时间里都面临着越来越大的压力。

The Week Ahead – Trump Takes a Step Back.UKOIL prices rebounding from multi-month lows UKOIL prices remain bullish as investors weigh up the potential OPEC+ output hikes and positive US-China trade talk developments. The black gold had been under increased pressure for the majority of April after falling over $15 as uncertainty continues with the recently imposed global tariffs.

DXY指数：这就是为什么美元崩溃还没有结束。上周，在唐纳德·特朗普软化了对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其关税的语气后，美元指数小幅上涨。周一，该指数最初跌至97.50美元的低点，本周收于99.17美元。

DXY Index: Here's why the US dollar crash is not over yet.The US Dollar Index rose modestly last week after Donald Trump softened his tone about Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, and his tariffs. After initially falling to a low of $97.50 on Monday, the index ended the week at $99.17.

日元每周预测：美国数据、关税和日本央行为震荡交易做好准备。美元/日元因美中贸易希望而结束三周的下跌。日本央行的决定、零售销售和美国数据将推动本周的价格走势。

Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: US Data, Tariffs, and BoJ Set Stage for Choppy Trading.USD/JPY snaps three-week losing streak on US-China trade hopes. BoJ decision, retail sales, and US data to drive price action this week.

截至2025年3月的三个月里，澳门的失业率从上一时期的1.8%微升至1.9%，为2024年5月以来的最高水平。失业人数增加了500人，达到7300人，而总就业人数下降了3100人，降至371800人。受失业影响的主要行业是博彩业、建筑业和餐馆及类似活动。与此同时，批发和零售业以及酒店和类似活动的就业人数有所增加。劳动力参与率从上一时期的61.7%降至61.1%

The unemployment rate in Macau edged up to 1.9% in the three months ending March 2025 from 1.8% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since May 2024. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 500 to 7,300, while total employment fell by 3,100 to 371,800. The main sectors affected by job losses were gaming, construction, and restaurants & similar activities. Meanwhile, job gains were observed in the wholesale & retail trade and hotels & similar activities. The labor force participation rate declined to 61.1% from 61.7% in the prior period

石油新闻：看跌石油前景，欧佩克+产量和关税对原油期货构成压力。油价下跌是由于欧佩克+产量上升和贸易战担忧。随着供应量的增加和原油期货面临关键技术考验，看跌油价前景增长。

Oil News: Bearish Oil Outlook as OPEC+ Production and Tariffs Weigh on Crude Futures.Oil prices fall on rising OPEC+ output and trade war worries. Bearish oil outlook grows as supply builds and crude futures face key technical tests.

2025年前三个月，中国工业企业的利润同比增长0.8%，达到15093.6亿元人民币，在北京进一步采取刺激措施的情况下，从今年前两个月0.3%的下降中恢复过来。外商投资企业和香港、澳门、台湾地区企业利润增长2.8%，股份制企业利润微涨0.1%。此外，私营部门利润在上一时期暴跌9.0%后下降了0.3%。相比之下，国有企业的利润下降了1.4%，扭转了此前2.1%的增长。在所有行业中，农业（40.3%）、有色金属冶炼（33.6%）、热能生产（6.1%）、一般制造业（9.5%）、特种设备（14.2%）、纺织业（7.1%）、计算机和通信业（3.2%）以及电机（7.5%）的利润均有所增长。相反，煤炭开采（-47.7%）、非金属矿产（-14.2%）、汽车（-6.2%）和化工（-0.4%）以及石油和天然气开采（-3.1%）的利润下降。

Profits of China's industrial firms expanded by 0.8% yoy to CNY 1,509.36 billion in the first three months of 2025, recovering from a 0.3% drop in the first two months of the year, amid further stimulus measures from Beijing. Profits from foreign-invested enterprises and those from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan grew by 2.8%, while profits from joint-stock enterprises edged up 0.1%. Additionally, private sector profits fell by 0.3%, following a 9.0% plunge in the previous period. In contrast, profits of state-owned firms shrank by 1.4%, reversing a 2.1% rise previously. Among industries, profits rose in agriculture (40.3%), non-ferrous metal smelting (33.6%), heat production (6.1%), general manufacturing (9.5%), special equipment (14.2%), textiles (7.1%), computer and communications (3.2%), and electrical machinery (7.5%). Conversely, profits fell in coal mining (-47.7%), non-metallic minerals (-14.2%), automobiles (-6.2%), chemicals (-0.4%), and oil and gas extraction (-3.1%).

巴基斯坦财政部长表示，巴基斯坦要求在中国货币互换额度上额外增加100亿元人民币。巴基斯坦财政部长Muhammad Aurangzeb表示，巴基斯坦已向中国提出请求，将其现有的货币互换额度增加100亿元人民币（14亿美元），并补充说，他预计该国将在年底前发行熊猫债券。

Pakistan requests extra 10 bln yuan on China swap line, says finance minister.Pakistan has put in a request to China to augment its existing swap line by 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion), Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said, adding he expected the country would launch a Panda bond before year-end.

消息人士称，欧洲央行已就6月降息达成共识，但无意采取重大举措。六位消息人士告诉路透社，随着通胀继续走低，欧洲央行政策制定者对6月份降息越来越有信心，但几乎没有兴趣采取重大举措。

ECB consensus builds for June rate cut but no appetite for big move, sources say.European Central Bank policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its march lower, but there is little to no appetite for a big move, six sources told Reuters.

特朗普赦免美联储和国际货币基金组织，世界松了一口气。本周聚集在华盛顿的全球政策制定者们集体松了一口气，尽管唐纳德·特朗普采取了内向型的做法，但过去80年盛行的以美国为中心的经济秩序尚未崩溃。

World breathes sigh of relief as Trump spares Fed, IMF.Global policymakers gathering in Washington this week breathed a collective sigh of relief that the U.S.-centric economic order that prevailed for the past 80 years was not collapsing just yet despite Donald Trump's inward-looking approach.

每周经济与金融评论：美联储仍处于控股模式。硬经济数据总体上保持弹性，并继续保持稳定，尽管情绪和调查数据显示，贸易政策引发的不确定性是最令人担忧的问题。地区采购经理人指数和褐皮书受到不确定前景的拖累，而耐用品订单强于预期。

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Fed Remains in a Holding Pattern.Hard economic data broadly remain resilient and continue to hold the line, even as sentiment and survey data show trade-policy-induced uncertainty is a foremost concern. Regional purchasing manager indexes and the Beige Book were weighed down by the uncertain outlook, while durable goods orders came in stronger than expected.

加拿大大选聚焦北美GDP数据。随着加拿大人周一前往投票站，我们正在观看周三2月的国内生产总值报告，包括3月的初步估计，以了解随着关税逆风的持续加剧，下一届政府将继承什么样的经济。

Canada's Elections Put North American GDP Data in Focus.With Canadians heading to the polls on Monday, we're watching February's gross domestic product report on Wednesday, including an early estimate for March, for clues on what type of economy the next government inherits as tariff headwinds continue to build.

摩根大通调查显示，对美元疲软和美国滞胀的共识。摩根大通周五公布的一项调查结果显示，明年美国经济滞胀的风险远高于衰退，而预计2025年表现最佳的资产类别是现金。

JPMorgan survey shows consensus over weak dollar, US stagflation.There is a much higher risk of stagflation than recession in the U.S. economy over the next year, while the asset class most expected to outperform in 2025 is cash, according to the results of a JPMorgan survey published on Friday.

Forexlive美洲外汇新闻摘要4月25日：美元收盘走高，但本周涨跌互现。。市场对《时代》杂志对特朗普总统的采访并不那么兴奋。这篇文章讨论了几个关键的国际和经济问题。

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 25 Apr: The USD closes the day higher but mixed for week..The markets were not all that giddy about the Time Magazine interview with Pres Trump. The article addressed several key international and economic issues.

天然气价格预测：41%修正后的支撑。尽管压力持续存在，天然气仍保持在AVWAP支撑位之上，如果突破今天的高点并恢复200天的平均水平，可能会逆转。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Eyes Support After 41% Correction.Despite continued pressure, natural gas holds above AVWAP support and may reverse if it breaks above today's high and reclaims the 200-day average.

周五，Ibovespa指数微涨0.1%，收于134739点，投资者吸收了新的通胀数据、不断变化的全球贸易发展和一批令人失望的收益。工业冠军WEG和肉类生产商JBS和BRF领涨，上涨2.1%至4.4%，而矿业巨头淡水河谷在报告第一季度利润同比下降17%后下跌2.4%。4月份的IPCA-15月中指数同比上涨5.49%，与预期相符，但仍有所上升，并加强了人们对Copom将继续加息并保持紧缩融资条件的押注。与此同时，美中关税下调的初步迹象未能消除更广泛的不确定性，使许多投资者被边缘化。尽管周五小幅上涨，但Ibovespa指数本周收盘上涨3.9%。

The Ibovespa edged 0.1% higher to close at 134,739 on Friday, as investors absorbed fresh inflation figures, evolving global trade developments and a batch of underwhelming earnings. Industrial champion WEG and meat producers JBS and BRF led the advance, rising between 2.1% and 4.4%, while mining behemoth Vale slid 2.4% after reporting a 17% year-on-year drop in first-quarter profits. April’s IPCA-15 mid-month gauge rose 5.49% year-on-year—in line with expectations but still elevated—and reinforced bets that Copom will press on with further rate hikes and maintain tight financing conditions. Simultaneously, tentative signs of U.S.–China tariff rollbacks failed to dispel broader uncertainty, keeping many investors sidelined. Despite Friday’s modest gains, the Ibovespa finished the week up 3.9%.