2026年美联储降息，市场分裂，圣诞老人集会待命。美元本周大部分时间都被钉在业绩板的底部，因为稳定的数据流强化了对美联储12月降息的预期。尽管周五抛售压力略有缓解，部分原因是长期国债收益率出人意料地强劲反弹，但美元仍难以站稳脚跟。

Santa Rally on Standby with Markets Split on 2026 Fed Cuts.Dollar spent most of the week pinned to the bottom of the performance board, as a steady flow of data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Even though selling pressure eased slightly into Friday—thanks in part to a surprisingly firm rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields—the greenback still struggled to find a foothold.

一周前：美联储将降息，但澳大利亚储备银行、瑞士央行和加拿大银行将保持不变，市场认为他们已经完成了。上周，美元交易量很大，输给了所有G10货币，但瑞士法郎除外。法郎的使用似乎拖累了法郎，而不是日元作为融资货币。

Week Ahead: Fed to Cut but RBA, SNB, and Bank of Canada Set to Hold, and Market Thinks They are Done.The US dollar traded heavily last week, losing ground to all the G10 currencies, but the Swiss franc. The franc seemed to be dragged down by the use of it rather than the yen as a funding currency.

美联储预览：市场预测降息，但该行预计美联储将保持。联合信贷银行的经济学家预计，美联储下周将保持利率不变，这一立场与市场定价背道而驰，目前市场定价认为降息的可能性超过90%。该行认为，如果这是正确的，美元兑欧元和英镑在最近全线回落后可能会重新站稳脚跟。

Federal Reserve Preview: Markets Price a cut, but This Bank Expects the FED to Hold.Economists at UniCredit expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold next week, a stance that runs against market pricing, which now assigns more than a 90 percent chance of a cut. The bank argues that if it is right, the US Dollar could regain ground against the Euro and Pound Sterling after its recent retreat across the.

荷兰合作银行预测2026年英镑兑欧元汇率将跌至1.124。荷兰合作银行表示，英镑走强并不令人信服，因为欧元/英镑仍有望走高。英镑兑欧元汇率周五收于1.1455，为几周来的最高水平，此前有线电视出现了一个多月来最大的单日涨幅。

Rabobank Predicts Pound Sterling to Drift Lower to 1.124 Against the Euro in 2026.Rabobank says pound strength unconvincing as EUR/GBP still expected to grind higher. The GBP to EUR exchange rate closed Friday at 1.1455, its strongest level in several weeks, after cable staged its biggest daily rise in over a month.

印度财政部长表示，尽管面临全球风险，但印度强劲的基本面仍将支持7%的增长。印度财政部长Nirmala Sitharaman周六表示，尽管全球存在不确定性，但基本面仍然强劲，印度今年的经济增长将加速至至少7%。

India's strong fundamentals to support 7% growth despite global risks, finance minister says.India's economic growth will accelerate to at least 7% this year as fundamentals remain robust despite global uncertainties, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday.

美元预测：随着美联储鸽派预期的建立，DXY疲软。美元走弱，交易员预计美联储下周降息的可能性为87%。疲软的劳动力数据和温和的预期超过了联邦公开市场委员会之前国债收益率的上升。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Weakens as Dovish Fed Expectations Build.Dollar weakens as traders price in 87% chance of Fed rate cut next week. Weak labor data and dovish expectations outweigh rising Treasury yields ahead of FOMC.

日元展望：决定美元/日元走势的点和异议。美元/日元进入由美联储主导的关键一周。虽然日本收益率影响了最近的走势，但这一主题在周三的联邦公开市场委员会决定中退居次要地位。

Japanese Yen Outlook: Dots and Dissents to Dictate USD/JPY Direction.USD/JPY enters a critical week dominated by the Fed. While Japanese yields have influenced recent moves, that theme takes a back seat to Wednesday's FOMC decision.

11月哥伦比亚消费者价格指数（同比）低于预测（5.45%）：实际（5.3%）。11月哥伦比亚消费者价格指数（同比）低于预测（5.45%）：实际（5.3%）

Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (5.45%) in November: Actual (5.3%).Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (5.45%) in November: Actual (5.3%)

哥伦比亚11月消费者价格指数（MoM）比预测（0.2%）低0.07%。哥伦比亚11月消费者价格指数（MoM）比预测（0.2%）低0.07%

Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.07% below forecasts (0.2%) in November.Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.07% below forecasts (0.2%) in November

天然气价格预测：爆炸性飙升至5.50美元——回调风险上升。周五，天然气价格飙升至5.50美元的新趋势高点，清除了200%的通道延伸和61.8%的斐波那契，达到5.28美元，同时确认了4.90美元以上的长期突破，创下2022年12月初以来的最高周收盘价。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Explosive Spike to $5.50 – Pullback Risk Rising.Natural gas spiked to a new trend high of $5.50 Friday, clearing both the 200% channel extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci at $5.28 while confirming the long-term breakout above $4.90 with the highest weekly close since early-December 2022.

美元/日元展望：日元试图在日本央行可能的政策转变中站稳脚跟。在过去的五个交易日中，美元/日元累计下跌超过0.6%，对日元有利，因为日元在日本央行最近的评论后开始走强，这表明年底将采取更激进的货币政策立场。目前，短期内抛售压力仍然占主导地位，如果日本央行确认更严格的政策，如果美元持续疲软，这种偏见可能会持续下去。

USD/JPY Outlook: The Yen Attempts to Gain Ground Amid a Possible BOJ Policy Shift.Over the past five trading sessions, USD/JPY has accumulated a decline of more than 0.6% in favor of the Japanese yen, as the currency begins to strengthen following recent comments from the Bank of Japan, which suggest a more aggressive monetary policy stance toward year-end. For now, selling pressure remains dominant in the short term, and this bias could continue if a more restrictive policy is confirmed by the BOJ and if U.S. dollar weakness persists.

美联储利率决定是下周的亮点。美联储的决定是下周央行四项决定中的一项。澳大利亚储备银行将于周一晚上（美国东部时间晚上10:30）在美国宣布其利率决定。预计3.60%不变。

The US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next week.The Fed decision is 1 of 4 central bank decisions next week. The reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision on Monday night in the US (10:30 PM ET) The expectations are for no change at 3.60%.

日本商品期货交易委员会日元NC净头寸从之前的70.4万日元升至68.1万日元。日本商品期货交易委员会日元NC净头寸从之前的70.4万日元升至68.1万日元

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥70.4K to ¥681K.Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions rose from previous ¥70.4K to ¥681K

英国商品期货交易委员会英镑NC净头寸从之前的-16.8K英镑降至-20.3万英镑。英国商品期货交易委员会英镑NC净头寸从之前的-16.8K英镑降至-20.3万英镑

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £-203K from previous £-16.8K.United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £-203K from previous £-16.8K

市场每周展望-联邦公开市场委员会降息倒计时，经济预测可能是关键。周五，美国主要股指均小幅上涨。道琼斯指数上涨236.46点（上涨0.49%），标准普尔500指数上涨31.44点（上涨0.46%），纳斯达克指数上涨131.27点（上涨0.56%）。

Markets Weekly Outlook – FOMC Rate Cut Countdown, Economic Projections May Hold the Key.On Friday, the main US stock market indexes all moved slightly higher. The Dow Jones gained 236.46 points (a 0.49% rise), the S&P 500 increased by 31.44 points (a 0.46% gain), and the Nasdaq rose by 131.27 points (a 0.56% increase).