欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标即将实现。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在周六发表的一次采访中表示，欧洲央行2%的通胀目标即将实现。

ECB's Lagarde says 2% inflation target in reach.The European Central Bank's inflation target of 2% is in reach, ECB President Christine Lagarde was quoted as saying in an interview published on Saturday.

美元/日元展望：随着地缘政治风险的酝酿，美联储和日本央行展望将引导价格。尽管中东冲突不断升级，但美元/日元上涨，因为交易员优先考虑油价上涨对美联储政策前景意味着什么，而不是传统的避险资产流动。随着收益率差异重新受到影响，鲍威尔和上田的指导意见可能在未来几天起决定性作用。

USD/JPY Outlook: Fed, BOJ outlooks to steer price as geopolitical risk simmers.Despite escalating conflict in the Middle East, USD/JPY has rallied as traders prioritise what higher oil prices mean for the Fed's policy outlook over traditional haven flows. With yield differentials regaining influence, guidance from Powell and Ueda could prove decisive in the days ahead.

每周经济与金融评论：关税通胀的迹象很少。本周都是关于价格的，到目前为止，预期的关税引发的通胀回升尚未出现在硬数据中。5月份消费者和生产者价格增长均低于预期，只有特定类别的关税相关价格压力的迹象。

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Few Signs of Tariff Inflation.This week was all about prices, and thus far, the expected tariff-induced inflation pickup has yet to appear in the hard data. Both consumer and producer price growth came in cooler than expected in May with only hints of tariff-related price pressures in specific categories.

美联储将维持利率，因为加拿大零售销售在关税下显示出弹性。人们普遍预计，美联储将在周三再次放弃降息。自2024年下半年将联邦基金利率下调100个基点后，央行自12月以来一直处于暂停状态。

U.S. Fed to Holds Rates as Canada's Retail Sales Show Resilience amid Tariffs.The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to forego an interest rate cut again on Wednesday. The central bank has been on pause since December after cutting the fed funds rate by 100 basis points in the second half of 2024.

天然气价格预测：在关键移动平均线支撑下巩固。周五，天然气价格保持在3.50美元以上的周支撑位，移动平均线的改善表明未来交易日突破4.08美元的力量和潜力。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Consolidates at Key Moving Average Support.Natural gas held weekly support above $3.50 on Friday, with improving moving averages suggesting strength and potential for a breakout toward $4.08 in coming sessions.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五下跌770点，跌幅1.79%。舍温-威廉姆斯（-5.66%）、维萨（-4.94%）和耐克（-3.74%）领跌。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index dropped 770 points or 1.79 percent on Friday. Losses were led by Sherwin-Williams (-5.66%), Visa (-4.94%) and Nike (-3.74%).

日本首相与特朗普通电话，重申日本对美国关税的使用。特朗普希望提高对日本汽车和其他进口商品的关税。特朗普政府还希望日本对更多的美国进口商品开放经济。

Japan PM in call with Trump, reiterated Japan's use on US tariffs.Trump wants to increase tariffs on autos and other imports from Japan. Trump's administration also wants Japan to open up their economy for more imported US goods.

周五，Ibovespa指数小幅下跌0.2%，收于137500点附近，受以色列-伊朗紧张局势升级的压力，投资者情绪受到抑制。伊朗对以色列袭击其核设施和导弹设施进行报复后，全球市场下跌，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧，并推动了对避险资产的需求。在美中潜在关税休战的最新消息公布之前，投资者也保持谨慎。在国内，焦点转向了金融交易税，因为众议院议长雨果·莫塔表示计划推动一项法令，暂停政府拟议的加息。在企业方面，油价飙升——在中东动荡期间上涨了7%——使巴西国家石油公司的股价上涨了2.5%。与此同时，风险敏感股下跌，淡水河谷下跌1.1%，路易莎杂志下跌6.6%，Bradesco下跌0.7%。巴西航空工业公司股价下跌3.1%，此前一架波音飞机在印度坠毁，造成290人死亡。

The Ibovespa index edged down 0.2% to close near 137,500 on Friday, pressured by escalating Israel-Iran tensions that dampened investor sentiment. Global markets retreated after Iran retaliated against Israel’s strikes on its nuclear and missile facilities, stoking fears of a wider conflict and driving demand for safe-haven assets. Investors also remained cautious ahead of updates on a potential US-China tariff truce. Domestically, focus shifted to the financial transactions tax, as House Speaker Hugo Motta signaled plans to push for a decree suspending the government’s proposed rate hike. On the corporate front, surging oil prices—up 7% amid Middle East unrest—boosted Petrobras shares by 2.5%. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive stocks declined, with Vale down 1.1%, Magazine Luiza falling 6.6%, and Bradesco slipping 0.7%. Embraer dropped 3.1% following a deadly Boeing plane crash in India that claimed 290 lives.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.4%，收于26504点，从周四的历史高点回落，原因是以色列-伊朗紧张局势升级，促使投资者转向避险资产。此前，伊朗对以色列袭击其核设施和导弹设施进行了报复，据报道发射了100多枚导弹，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧，并推动了黄金和原油价格的上涨。原油价格飙升7%，提振了加拿大自然资源（+2.7%）、森科尔（+4.3%）和帝国石油（+3.4%）等能源股。由于地缘政治风险加剧，金价也上涨了1%，提振了Agnico Eagle（+1.9%）和Barrick Gold（+2.8%）。尽管周五有所下跌，但该指数连续第三周上涨，上涨0.6%，这得益于对即将召开的七国集团峰会前可能达成的加拿大-美国贸易协议的乐观情绪。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特证实，他将与唐纳德·特朗普总统一起出席在加拿大举行的峰会，并会见马克·卡尼总理。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.4% to close at 26,504 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high as escalating Israel-Iran tensions drove a shift toward safe-haven assets. The decline followed Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s strikes on its nuclear and missile facilities, with over 100 missiles reportedly launched, stoking fears of a broader conflict and fueling gains in gold and crude oil prices. Crude surged 7%, lifting energy stocks such as Canadian Natural Resources (+2.7%), Suncor (+4.3%), and Imperial Oil (+3.4%). Gold prices also rose 1% amid heightened geopolitical risk, boosting Agnico Eagle (+1.9%) and Barrick Gold (+2.8%). Despite Friday’s dip, the index notched its third consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6%, supported by optimism over a potential Canada-US trade deal ahead of the upcoming G7 summit. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed he will attend the summit in Canada alongside President Donald Trump and meet with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

下周央行会议将主导经济日程。下周将是全球货币政策的关键一周，主要央行计划宣布其最新决定。日本央行（星期二）、美联储（星期三）、瑞士国家银行（星期四）和英格兰银行（星期4）都将举行政策会议。

Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week.Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings.

乌拉圭的国内生产总值在2025年3月季度增长了3.4%，比上一季度的3.5%略有放缓，此前达到了自2022年6月季度以来的最快增速。轻微放缓是由出口增长放缓推动的，与第四季度的4.4%相比，出口增长了4.2%。与此同时，进口从3.8%加速至5.6%，政府支出也有所回升，增长4.3%，而上一季度为3.3%。资本形成情况明显改善，在第四季度增长5.4%后飙升11.9%。然而，家庭消费增长从2.7%放缓至2.1%，表明国内需求有所疲软。

Uruguay’s GDP expanded by 3.4% in the March quarter of 2025, easing slightly from 3.5% growth in the previous quarter, after reaching its fastest pace since the June quarter of 2022. The slight slowdown was driven by softer export growth, which rose 4.2% compared to 4.4% in Q4. Meanwhile, imports accelerated to 5.6%, up from 3.8%, and government spending also picked up, growing 4.3% versus 3.3% in the prior quarter. Capital formation showed notable improvement, surging 11.9% after a 5.4% increase in Q4. However, household consumption growth slowed to 2.1% from 2.7%, signaling some weakness in domestic demand.

2025年5月，巴拉圭的贸易逆差扩大到5.384亿美元，扭转了去年同期4.209亿美元的顺差。注册出口同比下降8.4%，至45.3亿美元，主要原因是初级产品下降21%，尤其是大豆（-26.8%），部分被小麦和玉米的增长所抵消。由于牛肉出口强劲，农产工业品增长3.3%，工业制成品增长2.7%，其中铝和电缆领涨。能源出口下降11.9%。与此同时，由于工业品（+9%）、农产工业品（+11.9%）和初级产品（+14.9%）的购买量增加，注册进口额增长5.4%，达到68.5亿美元。由于柴油和汽油需求下降，燃料和润滑油进口下降了19.1%。这一转变既反映了外部销售的下降，也反映了国内需求的增强。

Paraguay's trade deficit widened to USD 538.4 million in May 2025, reversing a surplus of USD 420.9 million in the same period last year. Registered exports fell 8.4% year-over-year to USD 4.53 billion, driven by a 21% drop in primary products, especially soybeans (-26.8%), partly offset by gains in wheat and corn. Agro-industrial goods rose 3.3% on strong beef exports, and industrial manufactures increased 2.7%, led by aluminum and electrical cables. Energy exports dropped 11.9%. Meanwhile, registered imports grew 5.4% to USD 6.85 billion, fueled by increased purchases of industrial goods (+9%), agro-industrial goods (+11.9%), and primary products (+14.9%). Fuel and lubricant imports declined 19.1% due to lower diesel and gasoline demand. The shift reflects both falling external sales and stronger domestic demand.

天然气、WTI石油、布伦特原油预测——在以色列-伊朗冲突中，WTI石油价格升至73.00美元以上。随着交易员对中东局势的反应，石油市场暴涨。

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – WTI Oil Climbs Above $73.00 Amid Israel – Iran Conflict.Oil markets skyrocketed as traders reacted to the situation in the Middle East.

美国股市周五大幅下跌，因伊朗谴责以色列的空袭是“宣战”，并在当地时间周五晚些时候以导弹袭击作为回应，风险偏好减弱。此次袭击针对的是伊朗的核设施和军事设施，这大大加剧了地缘政治紧张局势，扰乱了全球市场。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别下跌1.1%和1.3%，道琼斯指数下跌769点。金融和科技股领跌，英伟达下跌2.1%，苹果下跌1.4%，Visa和万事达卡下跌超过4%。航空股也下跌，美国航空、达美航空和联合航空股价下跌4.5%至5%。与此同时，能源和国防股表现优异，因供应担忧油价飙升近7%；埃克森美孚上涨2%，洛克希德·马丁公司、RTX和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司上涨超过3%。本周，标准普尔500指数上涨0.5%，而道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数将分别下跌1.5%和0.8%。

US stocks closed sharply lower on Friday as risk appetite faded after Iran denounced Israel’s airstrikes as a “declaration of war” and responded with missile attacks late Friday local time. The strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, significantly escalating geopolitical tensions and unsettling global markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.1% and 1.3% respectively, while the Dow Jones tumbled 769 points. Financials and tech led the losses, with Nvidia down 2.1%, Apple off 1.4%, and Visa and Mastercard sliding over 4%. Airline stocks also sank, with American, Delta, and United down between 4.5% and 5%. Meanwhile, energy and defense shares outperformed as oil prices surged nearly 7% on supply concerns; Exxon rose 2%, and Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman climbed more than 3%. On the week, the S&P 500 is up 0.5%, while the Dow and Nasdaq are set to lose 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively.

油价在两个月内飙升40%——100美元是下一站吗？。受中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软和通胀压力重新点燃的推动，原油价格在短短两个月内飙升了40%以上。

Oil Soars 40% In 2 Months — Is $100 The Next Stop?.Crude Oil prices have surged over 40% in just two months, propelled by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a weakening U.S dollar and rekindled inflationary pressures.