从结构上讲，我们对英国国债和英镑持看跌态度。这场战斗可能会赢，但战争肯定还没有结束。英国财政大臣里夫斯秋季预算的基石是260亿英镑的延期增税（例如冻结2028-29年的所得税门槛），这将使她的财政缓冲从99亿英镑提高到220亿英镑，并有助于支付更高的福利支出。

Structurally We Hold Our Bearish View Against UK Gilts and Sterling.The battle might be won, but the war definitely ain't over. The corner stone of UK Chancellor Reeves' Autumn Budget are £26bn of back-loaded tax rises (eg freezing income tax thresholds from 2028-29) which lift her fiscal buffer from £9.9bn to £22bn and help pay for higher welfare spending.

由于对干预的担忧，日元复苏，美元/日元继续下跌。周四，美元/日元对跌至156.13，日元收复了最近的损失，因为市场对日本当局的潜在干预仍保持高度警惕。

USD/JPY Extends Decline as Yen Recovers on Intervention Fears.The USD/JPY pair fell to 156.13 on Thursday, with the Japanese yen recouping recent losses as markets remain on high alert for potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

为欧元区信贷增长降温。在欧元区，焦点转向10月份的信贷增长数据。9月份，非金融公司的贷款同比增长2.1%，但最近势头有所减弱，表明经济活动的提振力度较小。

Taking Temperature on Euro Area Credit Growth.In the euro area, focus turns to data on credit growth for October. Loan growth to non-financial corporations increased to 2.1% y/y in September but the momentum has lowered recently in a signal of a smaller boost to economic activity.

消息人士称，印度监管机构正在就审查对货币衍生品的限制进行谈判。三位直接了解此事的消息人士表示，在交易所和交易员发出呼吁后，印度监管机构正在讨论重新评估对交易所交易货币衍生品的严格监管，以重振日益向海外转移的市场。

Indian regulators in talks to review curbs on currency derivatives, sources say.Indian regulators are in discussions to reassess stringent regulations governing exchange-traded currency derivatives, following appeals from exchanges and traders, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, in a potential effort to revive a market increasingly shifting offshore.

受降息预期影响，美元指数跌至99.50以下。受降息预期影响，美元指数跌至99.50以下

US Dollar Index retreats below 99.50 on rate cut expectations.US Dollar Index retreats below 99.50 on rate cut expectations

天然气和石油预测：随着石油价格下跌，市场关注欧佩克+和外交谈判。地缘政治紧张局势、欧佩克+的不确定性和不断上升的盈余风险推动了看跌的天然气和石油预测，因为WTI和布伦特原油在下行通道内挣扎。

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Market Eyes OPEC+ and Diplomatic Talks as Oil Hits Losing Streak.Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ uncertainty, and rising surplus risks drive a bearish Natural Gas and Oil forecast as WTI and Brent struggle inside descending channels.

新西兰元、澳元走强，美元下跌。新西兰元的广泛反弹延续到今天的亚洲时段，因为一系列稳健的国内数据继续提振人们对该国复苏的信心。第三季度强劲的零售销售表明，反弹已经开始，而商业信心和活动的激增表明了更持久的回升。

Kiwi, Aussie Power Ahead While Dollar Sinks.New Zealand Dollar's broad-based rally extended through today's Asian session as a run of solid domestic data continued to bolster confidence in the country's recovery. Strong retail sales in Q3 suggested the rebound is already underway, while the surge in business confidence and activity pointed to a more durable upturn.

欧元正在走向雕刻业吗？。Tom Westbrook展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

EUROPE Is the dollar headed for the carvery?.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

英镑/日元交易小幅下跌，低于年初至今的峰值和207.00，日元走强。英镑/日元交易小幅下跌，低于年初至今的峰值和207.00，日元走强

GBP/JPY trades with modest losses below YTD peak and 207.00 amid a firmer JPY.GBP/JPY trades with modest losses below YTD peak and 207.00 amid a firmer JPY

investingLive亚太外汇新闻总结：澳元上涨，新西兰元上涨，日元上涨……再次！。新西兰以一系列强劲的第三季度零售销售数据拉开了序幕，随后商业调查出现了引人注目的激增。11月商业信心跃升至67.1%，创11年来新高，而公司自身的活动则创下了十多年来的最佳表现。

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD up, NZD up, JPY up … again!.New Zealand kicked things off with a strong set of Q3 retail sales numbers, followed by an eye-catching surge in business surveys. November business confidence jumped to 67.1%, an 11-year high, while firms' own activity delivered its best reading in more than a decade.

野口勇表示，随着日元疲软成为问题，日本央行可以逐步重启加息。日本央行董事会成员野口朝日今天表示，一旦美国关税风险消退，央行可能会恢复加息，但强调任何紧缩措施都必须“循序渐进”。

Noguchi says BoJ can restart hikes gradually as Yen weakness turns problematic.BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said today that the central bank could resume interest rate hikes once U.S. tariff risks recede, but emphasized that any tightening must “measured, step-by-step”.

早盘交易中，卢比兑美元汇率下跌2派萨，至89.24。由于进口需求增加，印度卢比周四兑美元汇率小幅下跌，为89.24。然而，外资流入股市和原油价格下跌提供了一些支持。

Rupee falls 2 paise to 89.24 against US dollar in early trade.The Indian rupee experienced a slight dip, trading at 89.24 against the US dollar on Thursday due to increased importer demand. However, foreign capital inflows into the stock market and a fall in crude oil prices provided some support.

英国《金融时报》：中国旨在用自己的技术取代外国进口，并主导出口。中国正在迅速缩小外国公司与中国进行贸易的空间，追求自力更生压倒开放的模式。正如英国《金融时报》所言，北京越来越认为没有进口产品是它最终无法重新设计、生产成本更低和控制国内的。

FT: China aims to replace foreign imports with its own tech and dominate exports.China is rapidly narrowing the space for foreign companies to trade with it, pursuing a model in which self-reliance overrides openness. As the FT argues, Beijing increasingly sees no imported product it cannot eventually redesign, produce more cheaply and control domestically.

惠誉警告称，日本的新刺激计划可能会给其A/稳定评级增加财政风险。惠誉评级警告称，如果日本的新刺激计划导致政策持续放松并推高政府债务，可能会增加财政风险。尽管该方案规模庞大，约占GDP的3.4%，但惠誉表示，其真正的财政影响尚不清楚，因为一些措施是非财政性的，分散在多年内，或者面临实施风险。

Fitch warns Japan's new stimulus could add fiscal risk to its A/Stable rating.Fitch Ratings warned that Japan's new stimulus package could add fiscal risks if it leads to a sustained loosening of policy and pushes government debt higher. While the package is large — roughly 3.4% of GDP — Fitch said its true fiscal impact is unclear because some measures are non-fiscal, spread over multiple years, or face implementation risk.

Wood Mackenzie：中国石油需求接近峰值，到2027年增长率将降至零。Wood Mackenzie预计，随着中国接近石油消费峰值，未来几年中国的石油需求增长将大幅放缓，到2027年将接近零。

Wood Mackenzie: China nearing peak oil demand as growth drops toward zero by 2027.Wood Mackenzie expects China's oil demand growth to slow sharply over the next few years, approaching zero by 2027 as the country nears peak consumption.