市场每周展望-随着财报季的进行，通胀风暴即将到来。7月9日的关税最后期限已经过去，市场参与者仍然有很多问题。贸易协议已经开始生效，但随着8月1日关税实施日期的临近，大多数国家仍在与美国进行谈判。

Markets Weekly Outlook – Inflation Storm Ahead as Earnings Season Gets Underway.The July 9 tariff deadline has come and gone and market participants are still left with a lot of questions. Trade deals have begun to filter through but the majority of countries are still locked in negotiations with the US as the tariff implementation date of August 1 beckons.

通胀观察——加拿大消费者价格在5月意外下跌后将在6月上涨。我们预计，由于周二加拿大和美国6月通胀数据中的关税，价格大幅上涨可能为时过早。

Inflation Watch—Canada's Consumer Prices to Tick Higher in June after May's Downside Surprise.We expect it is likely too early to see a significant increase in prices due to tariffs in Canadian and U.S. inflation data for June on Tuesday.

由于炼油限制和关税担忧持续存在，铜价保持稳定。周五，铜期货交易价格接近每磅5.50美元，从周二的高点5.70美元下跌。尽管价格小幅下跌，但仍比周一收盘价高出10%，突显出人们对美国即将征收的贸易关税导致的供应中断的持续担忧。

Copper prices steady as refining constraints and tariff fears persist.Copper futures are trading near $5.50 per pound on Friday, slipping from Tuesday's high of $5.70 on the daily timeframe. Despite the modest decline, prices remain 10% higher than Monday's close, underscoring persistent concerns over supply disruptions tied to incoming United States (US) trade tariffs.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五下跌287点，跌幅0.64%。耐克（-2.61%）、维萨（-2.26%）和Salesforce（-1.97%）领跌。涨幅最大的是联合健康（1.46%）、亚马逊（1.26%）和雪佛龙（0.78%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index decreased 287 points or 0.64 percent on Friday. Losses were driven by Nike (-2.61%), Visa (-2.26%) and Salesforce (-1.97%). Biggest rises came from UnitedHealth (1.46%), Amazon (1.26%) and Chevron (0.78%).

天然气价格预测：在200天均线被拒绝后面临下行压力。由于阻力位保持在200天均线，天然气仍容易进一步下跌，在稳定之前可能会瞄准2.76-2.80美元区间。但更高的目标也可能适用。

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Faces Downward Pressure After Rejection at 200-Day MA.With resistance holding at the 200-Day MA, natural gas remains vulnerable to further downside, potentially targeting the $2.76–$2.80 zone before stabilizing. But higher targets may also apply.

布伦特原油期货周五上涨2.5%，收于每桶70.40美元，从前一交易日2.2%的跌幅反弹，每周上涨1.6%，因为交易员权衡了短期供应紧张与长期盈余担忧。尽管国际能源署预测今年晚些时候可能出现盈余，但强劲的夏季旅游需求和炼油厂的高产量正在支撑当前的价格。俄罗斯承诺抵消生产过剩，以及沙特8月份向中国出口创纪录原油的预期，加剧了短期看涨情绪。然而，国际能源署对供应增长的上调和需求预测的下调表明，今年晚些时候的平衡将更加疲软。长期需求的不确定性得到了欧佩克的呼应，由于中国经济增长放缓，欧佩克下调了2026-2029年的全球石油需求前景。与此同时，地缘政治风险仍然是人们关注的焦点，在乌克兰局势日益紧张的情况下，市场正在为美国可能对俄罗斯实施的新制裁做准备。

Brent crude oil futures jumped by 2.5% to settle at $70.40 per barrel on Friday, rebounding from a 2.2% drop in the previous session and logging a 1.6% weekly gain, as traders weighed near-term supply tightness against longer-term surplus concerns. Despite the IEA forecasting a potential surplus later this year, strong summer travel demand and high refinery runs are supporting current prices. Russia’s pledge to offset overproduction and expectations of record Saudi crude shipments to China in August added to short-term bullish sentiment. However, the IEA’s upward revision to supply growth and lowered demand projections point to a softer balance later in the year. Longer-term demand uncertainty was echoed by OPEC, which cut its global oil demand outlook for 2026–2029 due to slower Chinese growth. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain in focus, with markets bracing for potential new US sanctions on Russia amid growing tensions over Ukraine.

周五，WTI原油期货上涨2.8%，收于每桶68.40美元，从前一交易日2.5%的跌幅反弹，每周上涨0.6%，因为交易员权衡了短期供应紧张与长期盈余担忧。尽管国际能源署预测今年晚些时候可能出现盈余，但强劲的夏季旅游需求和炼油厂的高产量正在支撑当前的价格。俄罗斯承诺抵消生产过剩，以及沙特8月份向中国出口创纪录原油的预期，加剧了短期看涨情绪。然而，国际能源署对供应增长的上调和需求预测的下调表明，今年晚些时候的平衡将更加疲软。长期需求的不确定性得到了欧佩克的呼应，由于中国经济增长放缓，欧佩克下调了2026-2029年的全球石油需求前景。与此同时，地缘政治风险仍然是人们关注的焦点，在乌克兰局势日益紧张的情况下，市场正在为美国可能对俄罗斯实施的新制裁做准备。

WTI crude oil futures rose 2.8% to settle at $68.40 per barrel on Friday, rebounding from a 2.5% drop in the previous session and logging a 0.6% weekly gain, as traders weighed near-term supply tightness against longer-term surplus concerns. Despite the IEA forecasting a potential surplus later this year, strong summer travel demand and high refinery runs are supporting current prices. Russia’s pledge to offset overproduction and expectations of record Saudi crude shipments to China in August added to short-term bullish sentiment. However, the IEA’s upward revision to supply growth and lowered demand projections point to a softer balance later in the year. Longer-term demand uncertainty was echoed by OPEC, which cut its global oil demand outlook for 2026–2029 due to slower Chinese growth. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain in focus, with markets bracing for potential new US sanctions on Russia amid growing tensions over Ukraine.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.2%，收于27023点，在特朗普总统出人意料地颁布对所有非美墨加加拿大进口商品征收35%关税的法令后，该指数从历史高点回落，令金融和依赖出口的行业都感到不安。加拿大金融巨头加拿大皇家银行、布鲁克菲尔德银行、蒙特利尔银行和丰业银行领跌，跌幅为0.6%至1.1%，而出口敏感的铁路巨头加拿大太平洋铁路公司和加拿大国民铁路公司分别下跌0.9%和0.7%，因投资者准备应对跨境资金流动受阻。6月份强劲的劳工报告增加了83100个工作岗位，将失业率降至6.9%，5月份建筑许可证激增12%，达到131亿加元，这突显了国内的韧性，削弱了人们对7月30日加拿大银行降息的预期。多伦多证券交易所公布了温和的周跌幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.2% to close at 27,023 on Friday, reversing from record highs after President Trump’s surprise decree of a 35% tariff on all non-USMCA Canadian imports unsettled both financials and export-reliant sectors. Canada’s financial giants RBC, Brookfield, BMO and Scotiabank, led the sell-off with losses of 0.6% to 1.1%, while export-sensitive rail giants Canadian Pacific and Canadian National tumbled 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively as investors braced for choked cross-border flows. Domestic resilience—underscored by June’s robust labour report, which added 83,100 jobs and drove unemployment down to 6.9%, and a 12% leap in May building permits to C$13.1 billion—dented expectations for a July 30th Bank of Canada rate cut. The TSX posted modest weekly declines.

美国股市周五收跌，此前特朗普总统宣布对加拿大进口商品征收35%的关税，并警告全球关税将进一步上调。标准普尔500指数在前一天创下历史新高后下跌0.3%，结束了投资者乐观情绪推动的强劲连胜。特朗普致加拿大的信引起了人们的担忧，并警告称，如果随后进行报复，将采取进一步行动，同时他还暗示，预计不久将针对欧盟采取类似措施。大多数行业出现亏损，健康和金融板块领跌，而能源和非必需消费品板块上涨。大型股涨跌互现，苹果（-0.6%）、Meta（-1.3%）、博通（-0.4%）股价下跌，而微软（+0.4%）、特斯拉（+0.1%）、英伟达（+1%）、Alphabet（+1.4%）和亚马逊（+1.2%）股价上涨。本周，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数下跌1.1%，纳斯达克100指数上涨0.1%。下周，随着第二季度财报季的开始以及关键通胀报告的发布，投资者将面临繁忙的议程。

US equities closed lower on Friday after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and warned of broader global tariff hikes. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after hitting a record high the previous day, ending a strong streak driven by investor optimism. Trump's letter to Canada raised concerns and warned of further action if retaliation followed, while he also hinted at similar measures targeting the EU is expected shortly. Most sectors were in the red, with health and financials leading the losses, while energy and consumer discretionary were higher. Megacaps were mixed, with Apple (-0.6%), Meta (-1.3%), Broadcom (-0.4%) trading lower, while Microsoft (+0.4%), Tesla (+0.1%), Nvidia (+1%), Alphabet (+1.4%) and Amazon (+1.2%) were higher. For the week, the S&P 500 and the Dow slipped 1.1%, while Nasdaq 100 added 0.1%. Next week, investors will face a busy agenda as the second-quarter earnings season kicks off alongside the release of key inflation reports.

截至2025年6月，巴拉圭的贸易逆差扩大到6.979亿美元，扭转了去年同期4.69亿美元的顺差。注册出口同比下降7.7%，至54.657亿美元，主要原因是初级产品下降24.3%，大豆暴跌30.4%，部分被玉米（+45.5%）、小麦（+67.8%）和大米（+116.6%）的增长所抵消。农产工业品上涨9.0%，牛肉和内脏出货量强劲，而工业制成品上涨2.4%，其中电缆和铝领涨。能源出口下降8.9%。与此同时，注册进口额增长7.3%，达到82.887亿美元，这得益于工业制成品（+11.0%）、农工产品（+14.2%）和初级产品（+18.1%）的购买量增加。燃料和润滑油进口下降18.3%，反映出柴油和汽油需求疲软。这一转变既反映了外部销售的疲软，也反映了国内需求的强劲。

Paraguay’s trade deficit widened to USD 697.9 million through June 2025, reversing a USD 469 million surplus in the same period last year. Registered exports fell 7.7% year-on-year to USD 5.4657 billion, driven by a 24.3% drop in primary products—soybeans plunged 30.4%—partly offset by gains in maize (+45.5%), wheat (+67.8%) and rice (+116.6%). Agro-industrial goods rose 9.0% on robust beef and offal shipments, while industrial manufactures increased 2.4%, led by cables and aluminum. Energy exports declined 8.9%. Meanwhile, registered imports grew 7.3% to USD 8.2887 billion, fueled by higher purchases of industrial manufactures (+11.0%), agro-industrial goods (+14.2%) and primary products (+18.1%). Fuel and lubricant imports fell 18.3%, reflecting weaker diesel and gasoline demand. The shift reflects both softer external sales and firmer domestic demand.

油菜籽期货跌至每吨650加元，为三个月低点，因为加拿大统计局对产量估计的上调和加拿大草原地区作物状况的改善表明收成比之前预期的要大。萨斯喀彻温省等关键地区最近的降雨缓解了早些时候的干旱担忧，促使交易员解除了天气保险费。在全球范围内，植物油市场仍面临压力，豆油期货因美国出口前景疲软和国内库存上升而下跌，而泛欧交易所油菜籽和马来西亚棕榈油也因全球需求疲软和竞争加剧而下跌。尽管美国生物燃料政策的变化正在促进大豆压榨，但由此导致的食品和工业用途的替代仅被对菜籽油和棕榈油等替代油的依赖程度的增加所部分抵消。然而，这一转变尚未显著提振油菜籽需求，使价格面临进一步下跌的风险。

Canola futures fell toward CAD 650 per tonne, a three-month low, as Statistics Canada’s upward revision to production estimates and improved crop conditions across the Canadian Prairies point to a larger harvest than previously expected. Recent rainfall in key regions like Saskatchewan has eased earlier drought concerns, prompting traders to unwind weather premiums. Globally, vegetable oil markets remain under pressure with soybean oil futures declining on weaker US export prospects and rising domestic stocks, while Euronext rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil also retreated amid tepid global demand and intensifying competition. Although US biofuel policy changes are boosting soybean crush, the resulting displacement of food and industrial use is only partially offset by increased reliance on alternative oils like canola and palm. However, this shift has yet to lift canola demand meaningfully, leaving prices exposed to further downside.

受全球供应过剩和出口需求疲软的压力，大米期货跌至每百磅12.50美元以下，接近7月7日5月中旬以来的最低水平12.42美元。印度和越南的出口价格小幅下跌，而泰国的价格仍停滞不前，因为买家推迟了购买，预计当新的作物供应进入市场时，价格将进一步下跌。巴西面临着八年来最大的收成，受到高结转库存和出口势头减弱的影响，美国对精米征收关税使情况更加恶化。尽管由于春季大雨扰乱了三角洲地区的种植，美国收获面积略有减少，国内产量下降，但美国农业部提高了美国农产品平均价格，并下调了期末库存，提供了一些支持。然而，这些乐观的国内因素被印度、孟加拉国、缅甸和菲律宾更大的作物所推动的2025/26年全球创纪录的5.42亿吨收成所掩盖。

Rice futures slipped below $12.50 per hundredweight, approaching their weakest level since mid-May of $12.42 on July 7th, pressured by a global supply glut and sluggish export demand. Indian and Vietnamese export prices have edged lower while Thai prices remain stagnant as buyers delay purchases, anticipating further declines when new-crop supplies enter the market. Brazil faces its largest harvest in eight years, burdened by high carryover stocks and weakening export momentum, a situation worsened by the imposition of US tariffs on milled rice. Despite a slight reduction in US harvested area due to heavy spring rains disrupting planting in the Delta region, and lower domestic output, the USDA raised average US farm prices and revised ending stocks downward, providing some support. However, these bullish domestic factors are overshadowed by a projected global record harvest of 542 million tons in 2025/26 driven by larger crops in India, Bangladesh, Burma, and the Philippines.

美国政府在6月份报告了270亿美元的预算盈余，这是由于关税收入急剧增加，达到创纪录的272亿美元。关税征收的增加，特别是特朗普总统发起的政策，帮助推动6月份的预算收入增长了13%，达到5260亿美元，而支出下降了7%，达到4990亿美元。然而，经日历调整后，财政部指出，6月份将出现700亿美元的赤字。今年迄今为止，由于医疗保健、社会保障、国防和债务利息支出的增加，总体预算赤字增长了5%，达到1.337万亿美元。本财政年度的海关收入达到创纪录的1133亿美元，表明越来越依赖关税作为收入来源。财政部官员预计关税征收将进一步增长，到2025年底可能达到3000亿美元。政府还在准备征收额外关税，包括对半导体和药品征收新的行业关税。

The US government reported a $27 billion budget surplus in June, driven by a sharp rise in customs duties revenue, which hit a record $27.2 billion. This boost in tariff collections, especially from policies initiated under President Trump, helped push June budget receipts up 13% to $526 billion, while spending dropped 7% to $499 billion. However, adjusting for calendar shifts, the Treasury noted that June would have shown a $70 billion deficit. Year-to-date, the overall budget deficit rose 5% to $1.337 trillion, due to increased outlays on healthcare, Social Security, defense, and interest on debt. Customs receipts for the fiscal year reached a record $113.3 billion gross, signaling growing reliance on tariffs as a revenue source. Treasury officials anticipate further growth in tariff collections, possibly reaching $300 billion by the end of 2025. The administration is also preparing additional tariffs, including new sector-based duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

2025年5月，乌拉圭制造业产出同比增长3.1%，低于4月的7.2%，为2024年8月以来的最小增幅。最大的积极贡献来自炼油，增长了71.0%，因为ANCAP在经过数月的维护后恢复了运营。机动车辆、拖车和半拖车紧随其后，增长50.5%，纸张和纸制品增长9.1%。最大的拖累来自食品，下降2.0%，其次是药品（-10.6%）和皮革及相关产品（-34.6%）。工作时间指数（IHT）同比下降1.8%，而就业人员指数（IPO）下降1.1%。

Uruguay's manufacturing output rose 3.1% year-on-year in May 2025, slowing from 7.2% in April and marking the smallest gain since August 2024. The strongest positive contribution came from Petroleum Refining, up 71.0%, as ANCAP resumed operations after months of maintenance. Motor Vehicles, Trailers, and Semi-Trailers followed with a 50.5% rise, and Paper and Paper Products grew 9.1%. The largest drag came from Food Products, down 2.0%, followed by Pharmaceuticals (-10.6%) and Leather and Related Products (-34.6%). The Hours Worked Index (IHT) fell 1.8% year-on-year, while the Employed Personnel Index (IPO) declined 1.1%.

由于全球供应预测上升，而需求未能跟上步伐，7月份棉花期货价格降至每磅66美分。美国农业部7月份的报告将2025/26年的美国棉花产量提高了60万包，达到1460万包，这是由于西南部等主要种植区的收获面积增加，遗弃率低于预期。尽管平均产量略有下降，但面积扩张抵消了这一影响，预计期末库存将增加30万包，美国库存与使用率将达到32.4%。在全球范围内，前景同样悲观，因为产量增加了143万包，主要来自中国和美国，而消费量仅略有增加。尽管期初库存较低，贸易预测也有所下降，但这使得全球期末库存较高。在巴西，不合时宜的降雨推迟了收成，但由于对质量和出口基准下降的担忧，买家正在压低价格。

Cotton futures eased toward 66 cents per pound in July, as global supply projections rise while demand fails to keep pace. The USDA’s July report raised US cotton production for 2025/26 by 600,000 bales to 14.6 million, driven by higher harvested acreage and lower-than-expected abandonment in key growing areas like the Southwest. Although average yields are slightly lower, the area expansion more than offsets it, lifting expected ending stocks by 300,000 bales and pushing the US stocks-to-use ratio to 32.4%. Globally, the outlook is similarly bearish as production was raised by 1.43 million bales, mainly from China and the US, while consumption increased only marginally. This leaves world ending stocks higher despite lower beginning inventories and reduced trade projections. In Brazil, unseasonable rains have delayed the harvest, but buyers are pushing prices lower due to concerns over quality and falling export benchmarks.