澳元作为市场风险指南针正在迷失方向。面对美国关税对市场情绪的打击，澳元令人惊讶的弹性引发了人们对其作为风险代表的长期作用是否正在结束的质疑。

The Aussie is losing its way as markets' risk compass.The Australian dollar's surprising resilience in the face of the hit to market sentiment from U.S. tariffs is raising questions whether its long-standing role as a proxy for risk is ending.

挪威央行暂时按兵不动——德国商业银行。正如我们所料，挪威央行上周保持政策利率不变。毕竟，从12月开始的利率走势并不一定意味着3月会降息。

Norges Bank to stand pat for the time being – Commerzbank.As we expected, Norges Bank left the policy rate unchanged last week. After all, the interest rate path from December did not necessarily imply an interest rate cut in March.

德国10年期债券拍卖从之前的2.92%降至2.68%。德国10年期债券拍卖从之前的2.92%降至2.68%

Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68%.Germany 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 2.92% to 2.68%

英镑：测试相对避险地位——ING。英国对美国的商品出口额略低于GDP的2%，而欧元区为3%。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，这并没有太大区别，但欧盟一直是特朗普对抗性外交策略的重点。

GBP: Testing the relative safe-haven status – ING.The UK's goods exports to the US are worth just below 2% of GDP compared to 3% for the eurozone. It is no massive difference, but the EU has been much more in the focus of Trump's confrontational foreign approach, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

美元：欧洲中部时间晚上10点公布关税。市场对今天“解放日”的反应将取决于关税的规模、地理/行业分布以及谈判的开放程度。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，该公告将于美国东部时间下午4点/欧洲中部时间晚上10点发布。

USD: Tariff announcement at 10PM CET – ING.The market reaction to today's 'liberation day' will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

拉加德演讲：关税对全球经济不利。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周三警告称，“关税对全球经济不利。”

Lagarde speech: Tariffs aren't good for the global economy.European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned on Wednesday, “tariffs aren't good for the global economy.”

DXY：事件风险双向交易——华侨银行。DXY：事件风险双向交易——华侨银行

DXY: 2-way trades into event risk – OCBC.DXY: 2-way trades into event risk – OCBC

欧洲央行行长雷恩：贸易保护主义是经济前景的关键风险。贸易保护主义是经济前景的主要风险。欧洲央行并没有预先承诺特定的利率路径。

ECB's Rehn: Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook.Trade protectionism is a key risk to economic outlook. The ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

NFP报告受到了很多关注，但可能根本不重要。周五即将发布的美国NFP报告有很多报道，但对市场来说可能并不重要。从定义上讲，所有的数据都是向后看的。

There's lots of focus on the NFP report but it might not matter at all.There's been lots of coverage for the US NFP report coming up on Friday but it might not matter much for the market. All the data by definition is backward looking.

随着交易员等待特朗普的关税，主要货币出现轻微变化。欧洲早盘交易没有太大变化，因为市场被特朗普当天晚些时候的重大宣布的前景所笼罩。该交易日缺乏任何有意义的数据发布也无济于事，导致迄今为止交易速度较慢，交易稳定。

Major currencies see light changes as traders wait on Trump tariffs.There's not much happening in European morning trade so far as markets are gripped by the prospect of Trump's big announcement later in the day. The lack of any meaningful data releases on the session isn't helping either, making for a slower and static day of trading thus far.

欧元：在更高的关税风险下有更大的定价空间——荷兰国际集团。ING外汇分析师Francesco Pesole指出，欧元/美元在今天的关税事件中有所走软，但价格走势表明，在1.080以下有强烈的购买兴趣，这再次表明市场还没有准备好接受负面的、关税主导的欧元叙事。

EUR: Room to price in more tariff risk – ING.EUR/USD has softened a bit into today's tariff event, but price action suggests strong buying interest below 1.080, in another sign that markets aren't ready to sink their teeth on a negative, tariff-led euro narrative, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

甲醇价格跌至6周低点2473.00元/吨。在过去4周内，甲醇价格下跌2.5%，在过去12个月内上涨1.7%。

Methanol decreased to a 6-week low of 2473.00 CNY/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Methanol lost 2.5%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.7%.

巴西人口最多的城市圣保罗的消费者价格在2月份上涨0.51%后，在2025年3月环比上涨0.62%，为去年11月以来的最高水平。食品（1.44%对2月份的0.43%）和住房（1.14%对0.39%）的价格涨幅要快得多。另一方面，个人护理下降（-0.60%对0.20%）；服装（-0.19%对0.04%）和交通（-0.08%对1.66%）。

Consumer prices in Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous city, rose by 0.62% month-over-month in March 2025, the most since last November, following a 0.51% increase in February. Prices increased much faster for food (1.44% vs 0.43% in February) and housing (1.14% vs 0.39%). On the other hand, declines were seen for personal care (-0.60% vs 0.20%); clothing (-0.19% vs 0.04%) and transportation (-0.08% vs 1.66%).

恒生指数周三收平，报23202点，前一交易日小幅上涨，科技和金融股的强势被房地产和消费者的疲软所抵消。交易员们等待特朗普总统今天晚些时候宣布新的互惠关税。白宫表示，新关税将立即生效，而从4月3日起将对汽车进口征收25%的单独关税。在地缘政治方面，中国周三在台湾周围进行了第二天的军事演习，扰乱了市场情绪。与此同时，中国3月份乐观的制造业数据被对未来几个月更多贸易壁垒可能给该行业带来压力的担忧所掩盖。由于对电动汽车致命事故的担忧，小米公司股价暴跌4.3%，至六周多来的最低点。与此同时，尽管XPeng 3月份的销售额同比增长268%，交付33205台，但XPeng仍下跌0.2%。上涨方面，浙江利浦汽车（12.1%）和周大福珠宝（9.6%）强劲上涨。

The Hang Seng closed almost flat at 23,202 on Wednesday, following modest gains in the prior session, as strength in tech and financials were offset by weakness in property and consumers. Traders awaited President Trump's announcement on new reciprocal tariffs later today. The new duties are set to take effect immediately, the White House said, while a separate 25% tariff on auto imports will be enforced from April 3. On the geopolitical front, China conducted a second day of military drills around Taiwan on Wednesday, rattling market sentiment. At the same time, upbeat manufacturing data for March in China was overshadowed by worries that more trade barriers could pressure the sector in the coming months. Xiaomi Corp. plunged 4.3% to an over six-week low amid concerns over a fatal EV crash. Meanwhile, XPeng lost 0.2% despite its sales surging 268% yoy in March to deliver 33,205 units. On the upside, Zhejiang Leapmotor (12.1%) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (9.6%) logged strong gains.

2025年2月，菲律宾政府的预算赤字从去年同期的1647亿菲律宾比索扩大到1714亿菲律宾比索。政府收入同比增长12.4%，达到2518亿菲律宾比索，主要原因是税收收入增加（+10.9%），占总收入的93.5%，非税收入增长37.1%。与此同时，政府支出同比增长8.9%，达到4232亿菲律宾比索，主要原因是公共工程和公路部基础设施项目的进度账单和通行权收购，以及各种健康和社会保护计划的实施。2025年前两个月，该国的预算赤字从2024年同期的767亿菲律宾比索扩大到1031亿菲律宾比索。

The Philippine government’s budget deficit widened to PHP 171.4 billion in February 2025 from PHP 164.7 billion in the same month of the previous year. Government revenues increased by 12.4% year-on-year to PHP 251.8 billion, driven primarily by higher tax collections (+10.9%), which accounted for 93.5% of total revenues, and non-tax revenues, which grew by 37.1%. Meanwhile, government expenditures rose by 8.9% year-on-year to PHP 423.2 billion, mainly due to progress billings and right-of-way acquisitions for infrastructure projects under the Department of Public Works and Highways, as well as the implementation of various health and social protection programs. For the first two months of 2025, the country’s budget deficit widened to PHP 103.1 billion from PHP 76.7 billion in the same period of 2024.