英国PMI服务业最终收于52.5，前景和就业疲软。英国3月份PMI服务业最终确定为52.5，高于2月份的51.0，为2024年8月以来的最高水平。PMI综合指数也升至51.5，为五个月高点。

UK PMI services finalized at 52.5, outlook and employment subdued.UK PMI Services was finalized at 52.5 in March, up from 51.0 in February, marking the highest level since August 2024. PMI Composite also improved to 51.5, a five-month high.

德国总理朔尔茨：欧洲将作出适当和相称的回应。欧洲将作出适当和相称的回应。特朗普关于关税的决定是根本错误的。

German Chancellor Scholz: Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately.Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately. Trump's decision on tariffs is fundamentally wrong.

瑞银全球财富管理表示，美联储今年将降息75-100个基点。去年年底，他们主张美联储在2025年降息四次，然后在第一季度的发展中缩减利率。但现在，随着特朗普的关税，他们正在将之前的预测重新提上桌面，期待鲍威尔等人的到来。

Fed to deliver 75-100 bps of rate cuts this year, says UBS Global Wealth Management.At the end of last year, they argued for the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025 before scaling that back amid Q1 developments. But now with Trump's tariffs, they are putting their previous forecast back on the table in expecting Powell & co.

欧元上涨1%以上，至1.09美元以上，达到2024年10月初以来的最高水平，得益于美元普遍疲软，交易员对特朗普总统宣布的最新一批关税做出反应。美国将对所有进口商品征收10%的关税，某些国家的关税要高得多。欧盟将面临高达20%的总关税，促使欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩警告称，这些措施将对全球经济造成“重大打击”。她还证实，欧盟正在准备反制措施。超过20%的欧盟出口到美国，德国将是受影响最严重的国家之一。交易员现在预计，欧洲央行4月份降息25个基点的可能性接近90%，预计到12月存款利率将降至1.82%，低于此前估计的1.9%和目前的2.5%。

The Euro jumped more 1% to above $1.09, hitting its highest level since early October 2024, benefiting from a general dollar weakness as traders react to the latets batch of tariffs announced by President Trump. The US is set to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, with significantly higher rates for certain nations. The European Union will face total tariffs of up to 20%, prompting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to warn that the measures would deliver “a major blow” to the global economy. She also confirmed that the EU was preparing countermeasures. More than 20% of European Union exports go to the US and Germany will be one of the most affected countries. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a 25bps rate cut by the ECB in April, with expectations for the deposit rate to fall to 1.82% by December, down from previous estimates of 1.9% and the current 2.5%.

欧元区PMI综合指数最终确定为50.9，稳定但不稳定。欧元区私营部门在3月份继续显示出稳定的迹象，PMI综合指数从2月份的50.2升至50.9，为7个月来的最高水平。PMI服务业指数最终确定为51.0，高于上月的50.6。

Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 50.9, steady but shaky.Eurozone's private sector continued to show signs of stabilization in March, with PMI Composite finalized at 50.9 — the highest in seven months — up from February's 50.2. PMI Services was finalized at 51.0, up from prior month's 50.6.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率升至0.87，为2024年11月初以来的最高水平，因为投资者纷纷涌向避险资产，以应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对主要贸易伙伴征收的比预期更激进的关税。与此同时，作为其“互惠关税”战略的一部分，特朗普总统对瑞士进口商品征收31%的关税。在国内数据方面，2025年3月瑞士的年通货膨胀率为0.3%，与2月份接近四年的低点持平，略低于市场预测的0.5%。

The Swiss franc strengthened toward 0.87 per USD, the highest level since early November 2024, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets in response to US President Donald Trump's more aggressive-than-anticipated tariffs on major trading partners. Meanwhile, as part of his "reciprocal tariffs" strategy, President Trump imposed a 31% levy on Swiss imports. On the domestic data front, the annual inflation rate in Switzerland stood at 0.3% in March 2025, unchanged from February’s near four-year low, slightly below market forecasts of 0.5%.

HCOB意大利服务业采购经理人指数从2月份的8个月高点53降至2025年3月的52，略低于52.5的预测。新订单连续第二个月增长，尽管速度较慢。虽然3月份出口订单略有收缩，但仍处于上升轨道，接近稳定。就业水平也略有上升。持续创造就业机会和新工作流入放缓的结合使公司能够在本月清理未完成的订单。在成本方面，由于工资、能源和原材料成本的增加，投入价格通胀加速至近一年来的最高点。作为回应，公司以过去一年中最明显的速度提高了收费。展望未来，更大比例的服务提供商预计未来12个月的业务活动将增加。然而，总体信心明显下降，反映出对未来经济状况的担忧日益加剧。

The HCOB Italy Services PMI fell to 52 in March 2025 from February’s eight-month high of 53, slightly below forecasts of 52.5. New orders grew for the second straight month, albeit at a slower pace. While export orders showed a slight contraction in March, they remained on an upward trajectory, nearing stabilization. Employment levels also increased modestly. The combination of sustained job creation and slower new work inflows enabled firms to clear outstanding orders during the month. On the cost side, input price inflation accelerated to a near one-year high, attributed to increased wage, energy, and raw material costs. In response, companies raised their charges at a pace that was among the most pronounced seen over the past year. Looking ahead, a larger proportion of service providers expect business activity to increase over the next 12 months. However, overall confidence declined notably, reflecting growing concerns about future economic conditions.

PSI 20指数升至6999.00点的近11年高点。在过去的4周里，PSI 20上涨了4.42%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了10.89%。

PSI 20 increased to a near 11-year high of 6999.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, PSI 20 gained 4.42%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.89%.

HCOB欧元区服务业采购经理人指数在2025年3月升至51.0，超过初步估计的50.4，略高于2月份的50.6。这表明，尽管新业务量略有下降，但产出增长略有加速。就业水平继续提高，创造就业的速度达到2024年6月以来的最高水平。在定价方面，投入成本和产出费用都创下了四个月来最慢的增长率。然而，商业乐观情绪降至2024年11月以来的最低水平。

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 51.0 in March 2025, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 50.4 and slightly above February’s reading of 50.6. This signaled a modest acceleration in output growth, despite a slight decline in new business volumes. Employment levels continued to increase, with the pace of job creation reaching its highest level since June 2024. On the pricing front, both input costs and output charges recorded their slowest rates of increase in four months. However, business optimism softened to its lowest level since November 2024.

周四，恒生指数下跌353点，跌幅1.5%，收于22850点的一个月低点，受到广泛板块下跌的压力。对中美贸易争端加剧的担忧加剧，中国誓言对特朗普最新关税的“坚决”报复。在今年早些时候征收20%关税的基础上，美国对中国进口商品征收了34%的额外关税。与此同时，由于担心不断升级的贸易紧张局势可能会使央行降息的努力复杂化，美国期货大幅下跌。科技股领跌，下跌约2%，其次是消费和金融板块。由于希望中国将推出更多旨在提振消费的刺激措施以抵消关税影响，损失受到限制。在该市上市的中国电子商务股票暴跌，尤其是阿里巴巴（-5.1%）和京东（-5.0%）。其他主要下跌股包括神州国际（-13.7%）、Techtronic Inds。（-12.6%）和比亚迪电子国际（-8.7%）。

The Hang Seng dipped 353 points or 1.5% to end at a one-month low of 22,850 on Thursday, pressured by broad-based sector losses. Concerns over a deepening trade dispute with the U.S. intensified, with China vowing "resolute" retaliation against bigger-than-expected Trump latest tariffs. The U.S. imposed an additional 34% levy on Chinese imports on top of a 20% tariff introduced earlier this year. Meanwhile, U.S. futures plunged sharply, fueled by fears that escalating trade tensions could complicate central banks’ efforts to cut interest rates. Tech stocks led the decline, falling around 2%, followed by consumer and financial sectors. Losses were limited by hopes that China would introduce more stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption to offset tariff impacts. Chinese e-commerce stocks listed in the city saw a slump, notably Alibaba (-5.1%) and JD.com (-5.0%). Other major decliners included Shenzhou Intl. (-13.7%), Techtronic Inds. (-12.6%), and BYD Electronic Intl. (-8.7%).

格鲁吉亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的2.4%加速到2025年3月的5.4%。这是自2023年3月以来的最高读数，因为食品和非酒精（2月份为6.6%对3.7%）、服装和鞋类（1.5%对0%）以及健康（8.8%对5.4%）的价格上涨更快。此外，家具、家用设备和维护成本保持不变（-2.1%）。与此同时，酒精饮料和烟草（4.2%对4.7%）、杂项商品和服务（6.3%对7.6%）以及教育（4.9%对5.2%）的成本有所下降。此外，运输价格暴跌（-0.5比0.4），而通信价格则略有恶化（-12.4%比-12.2%）。按月度计算，2025年3月消费者价格指数上涨1.1%，而前一个月上涨0.4%。

The annual inflation rate in Georgia accelerated to 5.4% in March 2025, from 2.4 in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since March 2023, as prices rose faster for food and non-alcoholic (6.6% vs 3.7% in February), clothing and footwear (1.5% vs 0%) and health (8.8% vs 5.4%). In addition, costs remained unchanged for furnishings, household equipment, and maintenance (-2.1%). Meanwhile, costs eased for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.2% vs 4.7%), miscellaneous goods and services (6.3% vs 7.6%) and education (4.9% vs 5.2%). Moreover, prices tumbled for transport (-0.5 vs. 0.4) while deflation slightly worsened for communication (-12.4% vs. -12.2%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.1% in March 2025, following a 0.4% gain in the previous month.

铝期货跌至每吨2470美元以下，为七个月低点，因贸易紧张局势升级和关税对全球需求造成压力。特朗普总统宣布了全面的“互惠关税”，对进口商品征收10%的基准关税，并对包括中国（54%）、欧盟（20%）、日本（24%）和印度（26%）在内的主要经济体征收高额关税。美国还开始对进口汽车征收25%的关税，加剧了贸易中断。此前，特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税，同时对俄罗斯铝征收200%的关税，于3月12日生效。与此同时，加拿大禁止从俄罗斯进口铝和钢铁。保护主义抬头加剧了不确定性，导致铝价下跌。与此同时，产量正在增加，几内亚、澳大利亚和中国的氧化铝生产商正在扩大产能。2024年，中国的铝产量达到创纪录的4400万吨。

Aluminum futures dropped below $2,470 per tonne, a seven-month low, as escalating trade tensions and tariffs weighed on global demand. President Trump announced sweeping "reciprocal tariffs," setting a 10% baseline duty on imports and imposing steep levies on major economies, including China (54%), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%). The US also began enforcing a 25% duty on imported vehicles, adding to trade disruptions. Earlier, Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, and the EU took effect on March 12, alongside a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum. Meanwhile, Canada banned Russian aluminum and steel imports. Rising protectionism has fueled uncertainty, driving aluminum prices lower. At the same time, output is increasing, with alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China expanding capacity. China’s aluminum production hit a record 44 million tons in 2024.

HCOB欧元区综合采购经理人指数在2025年3月攀升至50.9，超过了初步估计的50.4和2月份的最终读数50.2。这标志着欧盟私营部门连续第三个月扩张，也是自去年8月以来最强劲的增长，尽管总体上增长缓慢。值得注意的是，商品生产两年来首次增长，而服务业活动与2月份相比有所加速。新业务流入基本保持不变，而就业人数略有上升，这是自2024年7月以来的首次增长。在定价方面，投入成本和产出费用的通胀均降至三个月低点。然而，商业乐观情绪降至12月以来的最低水平。

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI climbed to 50.9 in March 2025, surpassing both the preliminary estimate of 50.4 and February’s final reading of 50.2. This marked the third consecutive month of expansion in the bloc’s private sector and the strongest growth since last August, albeit modest overall. Notably, goods production increased for the first time in two years, while services activity accelerated compared to February. New business inflows remained largely unchanged, while employment saw a slight uptick—the first increase since July 2024. On the pricing front, inflation for both input costs and output charges eased to three-month lows. However, business optimism weakened to its lowest level since December.

HCOB德国综合采购经理人指数从初步的50.9上调至51.3，而2月份为50.4。数据显示，随着制造业衰退的缓解（48.3比46.5），私营部门出现了十个月来最强劲的扩张，产量近两年来首次上升。与此同时，服务业的增长略有放缓（50.9比51.1）。制造业新订单的小幅增加被服务公司新工作的减少所抵消，导致整体新业务进一步小幅下降。出口总额也有所下降。就业人数下降幅度为十个月来最低，因为制造业裁员率放缓，而服务业招聘人数增加。由于服务业的投入成本和产出价格通胀率放缓，价格压力有所缓解。与此同时，制造业的折扣有所缓和。最后，数据显示，人们对经济活动的期望普遍提高。

The HCOB Germany Composite PMI was revised higher to 51.3 from a preliminary of 50.9 and compared to 50.4 in February. The data signaled the strongest expansion in the private sector in ten months, as the manufacturing downturn eased (48.3 vs. 46.5), with production rising for the first time in nearly two years. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector moderated slightly (50.9 vs. 51.1). A slight increase in manufacturing new orders was more than offset by lower intakes of new work at services firms, resulting in a further modest drop in overall new business. Total export sales were also down. Employment fell the least in ten months, as a softer rate of job shedding in manufacturing coincided with an uptick in hiring in services. Price pressures eased due to slower rates of input cost and output price inflation in the service sector. Discounting in the manufacturing sector meanwhile moderated. Lastly, data showed a broad-based improvement in expectations towards activity.

HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数在2025年3月升至47.9，高于上个月的45.3，超过了最初预测的46.6。然而，这仍然标志着连续第七个月出现负面数据，突显出该行业需求持续疲软。受经济形势严峻和客户兴趣疲软的推动，产量继续下降。同样，新订单连续第七个月下降，国际客户的新工作量以三个月来最快的速度下降。此外，3月份裁员现象仍然普遍存在，主要原因是自愿离职没有得到替代。在价格方面，通胀压力有所缓解，投入成本以去年10月以来的最低速度上涨，而随着公司试图将更高的运营费用转嫁给客户，产出费用增加。最后，商业信心仍然低迷，增长预期远低于历史平均水平。

The HCOB France Services PMI rose to 47.9 in March 2025, improving from 45.3 in the previous month and surpassing the initial forecast of 46.6. However, this still marked the seventh consecutive month of negative readings, underscoring ongoing weaknesses in demand within the sector. Production continued to decline, driven by challenging economic conditions and weak client interest. Similarly, new orders fell for the seventh month in a row, with the volume of new work from international customers decreasing at the fastest pace in three months. In addition, job shedding remained prevalent in March, mainly due to the non-replacement of voluntary departures. On the prices front, inflationary pressures eased, with input costs rising at the slowest rate since last October, while output charges increased as companies sought to pass on higher operating expenses to clients. Finally, business confidence remained subdued, with growth expectations well below the historical average.