美元/日元在155点测试关键支撑位，因为上田正在测试紧绳。今天早些时候，美元跌至较低的低点，与此同时，英镑/美元继续突破，欧元/美元测试新高和看涨结构。然而，在美元/日元方面，更广泛的看涨背景仍然存在，因为主要货币对的价格正在测试从之前的154.45-155.00阻力位获得的重要支撑区域。

USD/JPY Tests Key Support at 155 as Ueda Tests the Tightrope.The US Dollar has pushed down to a lower-low earlier today and that goes along with a continued breakout in GBP/USD and a test of fresh highs and bullish structure in EUR/USD. In USD/JPY, however, the broader bullish backdrop remains in-place as prices in the major pair are testing a significant area of support as taken from prior resistance of 154.45-155.00.

英镑：2026年英镑前景黯淡。2026年英镑前景黯淡，英国通胀率趋向2%，经济增长放缓，劳动力市场疲软，所有这些都表明英格兰银行将进一步降息，英镑将面临压力。最新--汇率：英镑至欧元（GBP/EUR）：1.14483（+0.07%）英镑至美元（GBP/USD）：1.33394（-0.06%）欧元至。

Pound Sterling: A Gloomy 2026 Outlook for GBP.The Pound Sterling faces a gloomy 2026 outlook as UK inflation trends toward 2 percent, growth slows and the labour market weakens, all of which point to further Bank of England rate cuts and pressure on the currency. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.14483 (+0.07%)Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.33394 (-0.06%)Euro to.

FX Today：美国个人消费支出数据与密歇根大学指数一同成为焦点。FX Today：美国个人消费支出数据与密歇根大学指数一同成为焦点

FX Today: US PCE data takes centre stage alongside the flash U-Mich gauge.FX Today: US PCE data takes centre stage alongside the flash U-Mich gauge

天然气、WTI石油、布伦特原油预测——乌克兰和平谈判缺乏进展，石油市场上涨1%。随着地缘政治风险溢价的增加，油价上涨。

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Markets Gain 1% Amid Lack Of Progress In Ukraine Peace Talks.Oil prices gained ground as geopolitical risk premium increased.

欧洲指数收盘全面上涨。欧洲主要股指当天均收高，西班牙Ibex和德国DAX指数领涨。收盘水平的快照显示：

European indices close with gains across the board.The major European indices are all closing higher on the day with the gains led by the Spain's Ibex and Germans DAX indices. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

美元接近周低点，交易员关注首次失业救济申请：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。由于交易员关注首次失业救济申请人数报告，美元指数试图跌破99.00。

U.S. Dollar Stays Close To Weekly Lows As Traders Focus On Initial Jobless Claims: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.U.S. Dollar Index attempts to settle below the 99.00 level as traders focus on the Initial Jobless Claims report.

亚特兰大联邦储备银行第三季度GDP增长预测从之前的3.9%降至3.8%。下一次GDPNow更新将不迟于12月5日星期五。目前预测的第四季度GDP增长的第一个模型不会在12月23日星期二之前出现。

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 dips to 3.8% from 3.9% previously.The next GDPNow update will be no later than Friday, December 5. The first model nowcast for fourth-quarter GDP growth will not occur before Tuesday, December 23.

美国4周期票据拍卖：3.68%，此前为3.905%。美国4周期票据拍卖：3.68%，此前为3.905%

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.68% vs previous 3.905%.United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.68% vs previous 3.905%

金属在美联储预期降息前大放异彩。白银有望成为2025年表现最佳的主要差价合约。

Metals Shine Ahead of the Fed's Expected Cut.Silver is on track to be 2025's best performing major CFD.

国际货币基金组织表示，阿根廷需要更雄心勃勃的储备积累政策。国际货币基金组织周四表示，阿根廷的货币和外汇政策将需要支持更强大的储备积累，以促进该国进入国际资本市场。

IMF says Argentina needs more ambitious reserve accumulation policies .Argentina's monetary and foreign exchange policies will need to support a stronger accumulation of reserves to facilitate the country's access to international capital markets, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

12月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）停电期的闪光灯：有争议的削减。我们预计联邦公开市场委员会将继续将政策转向更中立的立场，并在12月9日至10日即将召开的会议上将联邦基金利率再下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。尽管联邦公开市场委员会不会像最初计划的那样在本次会议上公布10月和11月的就业报告，但最新的劳动力市场数据表明，情况继续缓慢疲软。

Flashlight for the December FOMC Blackout Period: A Contentious Cut.We expect the FOMC to proceed with returning policy toward a more neutral stance and reduce the fed funds rate by another 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% at its upcoming meeting on December 9-10. Although the FOMC will not have the October and November jobs report at this meeting as initially planned, the latest available labor market data suggest that conditions have continued to slowly soften.

天然气新闻：EIA报告小姐助长了当今市场的看跌情绪。由于EIA库存数据未达到预期，天然气期货下跌；看跌格局出现，重点是4.730美元的支撑位，天气驱动的需求不确定。

Natural Gas News: EIA Report Miss Fuels Bearish Sentiment in Today's Market.Natural gas futures fall as EIA inventory data misses forecasts; bearish setup emerges with $4.730 support in focus and weather-driven demand uncertain.

美元/日元跌至155.00以下：2025年的年度高点已经达到了吗？。当前逆转的核心在于政府的财政政策与央行的货币反应之间的冲突：财政鲁莽终于得到了货币稳健的回应。

USD/JPY Drops Below 155.00: Has 2025 Yearly Top Been Reached?.The core of the current reversal lies in the clash between the administration's fiscal policy and the central bank's monetary response: fiscal recklessness has finally been met with monetary soundness.

波兰央行行长表示，波兰央行可能会进入观望模式。波兰央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基周四在央行下调主要利率后表示，波兰货币政策委员会（MPC）可能会在一段时间内保持观望状态，并可能在稍后恢复降息。

Polish central bank could go into wait-and-see mode, governor says.The Polish Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will probably remain in a wait-and-see mode for a while and could return to interest rate cuts later, central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said on Thursday after the bank cut the main interest rate.

加拿大艾维采购经理人指数.s.a为48.4，低于11月的预期（53.6）。加拿大艾维采购经理人指数.s.a为48.4，低于11月的预期（53.6）

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 48.4, below expectations (53.6) in November.Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 48.4, below expectations (53.6) in November