ADP报告未达到预期，美元回落：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。随着交易员押注鸽派美联储，美元正面临压力。

U.S. Dollar Retreats As ADP Report Misses Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is under pressure as traders bet on dovish Fed.

随着美日收益率差距缩小，美元/日元预测变为负值。今天的美国数据喜忧参半，但重点是就业，这是自2023年以来最疲软的ADP私人就业报告，造成了最大的损失，因为本已较低的美元在欧洲当天晚些时候继续下跌。美元最近的回落再次拖累美元/日元下跌，破坏了昨天的温和复苏。

USD/JPY forecast becoming negative as US-Japan yield differentials narrow.Today's US data releases were mixed but with the focus being on employment, it was the weakest ADP private payrolls report since 2023 that caused the most damage as the US dollar, already lower on the session, continued to slide late in the day in Europe. The dollar's latest retreat has dragged USD/JPY lower once more, undoing all of yesterday's mild recovery.

英镑价格新闻和预测：由于对哈塞特的猜测推动了美联储的转向押注，英镑价格飙升。英镑价格新闻和预测：由于对哈塞特的猜测推动了美联储的转向押注，英镑价格飙升

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: Soars as speculation over Hassett fuels Fed-pivot bets.Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: Soars as speculation over Hassett fuels Fed-pivot bets

美国：ISM服务业调查显示11月继续扩张。11月ISM服务业指数基本保持不变，从52.4上升到52.6。上个月报告增长的行业数量增至18个行业中的12个，而前一个月为11个。

US: ISM Services Survey Shows Expansion Continued in November.The ISM Services index was roughly unchanged in November, increasing from 52.4 to 52.6 in November. The number of industries reporting growth last month increased to 12 out of 18, compared to 11 in the month prior.

EIA原油库存增加57.4万，而估计减少0.821亿。原油库存增加57.4万桶，而汽油库存减少82.1万桶，估计汽油库存为450万桶，馏分油库存增加14.68万桶，预计馏分油库存为210万桶。库欣下降-0.457M，而之前为-0.068M。昨日晚些时候公布的私人数据显示：原油+2480K汽油+31000K馏分+2880K。

EIA crude oil inventories build of 0.574M versus a drawdown of -0.821 million estimate.Crude oil inventory build of 0.574M versus drawdown of -0.821 million estimate gasoline oil inventory 4.5M barrels versus build of 1.468 million estimate distillates oil inventory 2.1M barrels versus build of 0.707 million estimate. Cushing drawdown of -0.457M vs prev -0.068M The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude +2480K Gasoline +3100K Distillates +2880K.

美国财政部的贝森特：没有人了解美联储的资产负债表。美国财政部的贝森特：没有人了解美联储的资产负债表

US Treasury's Bessent: No one understands Fed's balance sheet.US Treasury's Bessent: No one understands Fed's balance sheet

欧洲央行表示，欧盟将俄罗斯资产用于乌克兰贷款是一种延伸。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周三表示，从法律和金融的角度来看，欧盟委员会利用俄罗斯央行资产向乌克兰提供赔偿贷款的提议是一个延伸。

ECB says EU use of Russian assets for Ukraine loans is a stretch.The European Commission's proposal to use Russian central bank assets to extend reparations loans to Ukraine is a stretch from a legal and financial point of view, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday.

10月份俄罗斯失业率符合预期（2.2%）。10月份俄罗斯失业率符合预期（2.2%）

Russia Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (2.2%) in October.Russia Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (2.2%) in October

每周EIA石油库存数据延迟。对于那些寻找石油库存数据的人来说，发布每周数据似乎存在一些技术困难。有一些未经证实的报道称，石油库存增加了57.4万桶，但这一说法再次未得到证实。

The weekly EIA oil inventory data is delayed.For those looking for the oil inventory data, there seems to be some technical difficulties in publishing the weekly data. There is some on confirmed reports that the oil inventory grew by 0.574M but that is once again unconfirmed.

中欧货币将在2026年回落。路透社周三对经济分析师的调查显示，中欧主要货币在过去一个月创下数月新高后，可能接近上限。

Central Europe's currencies to back off highs in 2026.Central Europe's main currencies may be close to a ceiling after hitting fresh multi-month highs in the past month, a Reuters poll of economic analysts showed on Wednesday.

墨西哥比索在2026年之前保持在十年的交易区间内。路透社最近的一项民意调查显示，墨西哥比索预计将保持在近十年来定义其行为的中档区间内。自2015年7月以来，该货币兑美元汇率在16.00至22.00之间，中点平均约为19.20，在[…]

Mexico's peso seen holding within decade-old trading range through 2026.Mexico's peso is expected to remain within the same mid-range band that has defined its behaviour for nearly a decade, according to a recent Reuters poll. Since July 2015, the currency has traded between 16.00 and 22.00 per US dollar, averaging around 19.20 at the midpoint and breaching the upper boundary only once, during the […]

美国ISM服务业小幅上涨至52.6；价格急剧下降。美国ISM服务业采购经理人指数从11月的52.4升至52.6，超出预期的52.0，标志着2025年的第九次扩张性读数。商业活动略有改善，从54.3降至54.5，但新订单从56.2大幅下降至52.6，表明需求降温。

US ISM services edges higher to 52.6; prices ease sharply.US ISM Services PMI ticked up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, beating expectations of 52.0 and marking the ninth expansionary reading of 2025. Business activity improved slightly from 54.3 to 54.5, but new orders dropped sharply from 56.2 to 52.6, signaling cooling demand.

Bessent计划推动美联储行长地区居住要求。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三表示，他计划倡导一项要求，即12位地区联邦储备银行行长在被任命领导其银行之前，应在其所在地区居住至少三年。

Bessent plans to press for Fed bank president district residency requirement.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said he plans to advocate for a requirement that the 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents should reside in their districts for at least three years before being appointed to lead their banks.

美元预测：由于ADP就业数据疲软，美联储下调预期，DXY下跌。DXY指数下跌，因为疲软的ADP就业数据提振了美联储的降息押注，推低了收益率，并使美元处于关键技术水平以下的压力之下。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Falls as Weak ADP Jobs Data Fuels Fed Cut Expectations.DXY slides as weak ADP jobs data boosts Fed rate-cut bets, pushing yields lower and keeping the dollar under pressure below key technical levels.

欧元：欧元区政治形势有所改善——丰业银行。欧元：欧元区政治形势有所改善——丰业银行

EUR: Euroarea's political situation somewhat improves – Scotiabank.EUR: Euroarea's political situation somewhat improves – Scotiabank