卢比可能因关税、资金外流而进一步走弱；债券关注财政透明度。印度卢比在上周五跌至历史最低点后，本周可能仍将面临压力，美国关税和投资组合流动疲软加剧了压力，而政府债券则为财政发展做好了准备。

Rupee may weaken further on tariffs, outflows; bonds to eye fiscal clarity.The Indian rupee, after falling to a lifetime low last Friday, will likely remain under pressure this week with U.S. tariffs and sluggish portfolio flows piling on the pressure, while government bonds brace for fiscal developments.

基准韩国综合股价指数周一下跌0.4%，至3170点左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，受美国科技股大幅抛售的压力。鉴于韩国严重依赖对美国的出口，该指数反映了华尔街的疲软，尤其是科技股，三星电子（-1.9%）和SK海力士（-3.8%）均有所回落。疲软的国内数据和关税担忧加剧了谨慎的基调，8月份制造业采购经理人指数连续第七个月收缩至48.3，特朗普10%的基准关税打压了贸易情绪。与此同时，8月份出口同比仅增长1.3%，低于3%的增长预测，因为对美国的出口因高额关税而暴跌12%。尽管如此，半导体仍在贸易报告中大放异彩，芯片出口激增27.1%，达到创纪录的151亿美元，汽车（+8.6%）和船舶（+11.8%）也有所增长。在企业方面，化工和金融股也与芯片制造商一起表现不佳，而现代汽车（+0.7%）小幅上涨，提供了适度的支撑。

The benchmark KOSPI fell 0.4% to around 3,170 on Monday, extending losses from the previous session, pressured by a sharp selloff in US tech stocks. Given South Korea’s heavy reliance on exports to the US, the index mirrored Wall Street weakness, particularly in tech with Samsung Electronics (-1.9%) and SK Hynix (-3.8%) retreating. Soft domestic data and tariff concerns added to cautious tone, with the manufacturing PMI contracting for a seventh month at 48.3 in August and Trump's 10% baseline tariffs weighed on trade sentiment. Meanwhile, August exports rose just 1.3% year-on-year, missing forecasts of 3% growth, as shipments to the US plunged 12% on steep duties. Still, semiconductors shone in the trade report, with chip exports surging 27.1% to a record $15.1 billion, alongside gains in autos (+8.6%) and ships (+11.8%). On the corporate front, chemical and financial shares also underperformed alongside chipmakers, while Hyundai Motor (+0.7%) edged higher, offering modest support.

周一，美元指数徘徊在97.8左右，接近一个月低点，交易员们正在等待本周可能影响美联储下一个政策决定的一系列劳动力市场数据。主要报告包括周五的8月就业数据，以及失业率、职位空缺和私人工资数据。投资者还权衡了周五的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数证实了价格持续上涨，并为降息前景增加了不确定性。尽管如此，市场预计美联储本月晚些时候将降息25个基点的可能性约为88%。在贸易方面，一家联邦上诉法院裁定，唐纳德·特朗普总统的大部分互惠关税都是非法的，让政府在10月14日之前向美国最高法院上诉。由于美国市场因劳动节假期休市，交易活动预计将放缓。

The dollar index hovered around 97.8 on Monday, near one-month lows, as traders awaited a series of labor market releases this week that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Key reports include Friday’s August jobs data, alongside figures on unemployment, job openings, and private payrolls. Investors also weighed Friday’s PCE price index, which confirmed continued price increases and added uncertainty to the outlook for rate cuts. Still, markets are pricing in about an 88% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points later this month. On the trade front, a federal appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal, giving the administration until October 14 to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Trading activity is expected to be muted, with US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday.

2025年第二季度，澳大利亚的商业库存环比增长0.1%，与上一季度向上修正的1.2%增长相比大幅放缓。这标志着自2024年第三季度收缩以来最弱的扩张，主要是由于制造商（第一季度为0.2%对1.7%）和矿商（4.8%对5.0%）的库存增长放缓。此外，批发商的库存下降（-1.7%对0.2%），零售商的库存继续下降（-0.5%对-0.3%）。相比之下，电力供应商的库存水平加快（6.9%对4.8%），住宿和餐饮服务行业的库存水平反弹（0.6%对-0.5%）。与去年同期相比，企业库存每年增长0.8%。

Australia’s business inventories rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, a sharp slowdown from the upwardly revised 1.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. This marked the weakest expansion since the contraction in Q3 2024, primarily driven by easing inventory growth among manufacturers (0.2% vs 1.7% in Q1) and miners (4.8% vs 5.0%). Moreover, inventories slipped for wholesalers (-1.7% vs 0.2%) and continued to fall for retailers (-0.5% vs -0.3%). In contrast, inventory levels accelerated for electricity providers (6.9% vs 4.8%) and rebounded for the accommodation and food services sector (0.6% vs -0.5%). On an annual basis, business inventories increased by 0.8% compared to the same quarter last year.

初步数据显示，继上个月下调1.9%后，澳大利亚私人住宅审批量在2025年7月环比增长1.1%，达到9288套。这一增长是由于大多数州的批准率较高，包括新南威尔士州（3.0%）、西澳大利亚州（3.00%）、维多利亚州（1.3%）和昆士兰州（0.8%）。南澳大利亚州是唯一一个出现下降的州，下降了6.1%。私人住房许可证的年增长率为0.3%。

Private house approvals in Australia grew by 1.1% month-over-month to 9,288 units in July 2025, following a downwardly revised 1.9% drop in the previous month, preliminary data showed. The increase was driven by higher approvals across most states, including New South Wales (3.0%), Western Australia (3.0%), Victoria (1.3%), and Queensland (0.8%). South Australia was the only state to record a decline, falling 6.1%. On a yearly basis, private house permits were up 0.3%.

RatiingDog中国制造业综合采购经理人指数在2025年8月升至50.5，高于7月份的水平和49.5的市场共识，为3月份以来的最高水平。随着新订单和采购活动的增加，产出恢复增长，而外国需求的下降有所缓解。最新数据也标志着过去三个月产量的第二次增长，尽管增长幅度很小。新订单的强劲流入导致8月份积压的工作再次累积。然而，各公司对人员配置水平仍持谨慎态度，连续第五个月选择裁员。在价格方面，投入成本通胀加速至2024年11月以来的最高水平，尽管仍低于系列平均水平。在激烈的市场竞争中，销售价格经历了八个月的下跌后，没有变化。最后，受对改善条件和扩张驱动销售的乐观情绪支撑，商业信心增强至五个月高点。

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August 2025, above both July’s level and the market consensus of 49.5, marking the highest reading since March. Output returned to growth as new orders and purchasing activity picked up, while the decline in foreign demand eased. The latest figure also marked the second increase in output in the past three months, though the upturn was only marginal. Stronger inflows of new orders led to a renewed accumulation of backlogged work in August. However, firms remained cautious regarding staffing levels, opting to reduce headcount for the fifth consecutive month. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated to the steepest rate since November 2024, although it remained below the series average. Selling prices were unchanged, following an eight-month decline amid intense market competition. Lastly, business sentiment strengthened to a five-month high, supported by optimism about improving conditions and expansion-driven sales.

初步估计显示，经季节性调整后，澳大利亚批准的住宅总数在2025年7月环比下降8.2%，至15769套，超过了市场预期的4.8%的下降，扭转了6月份向上修正的12.2%的增长。这一下降主要是由于除住房外的私营部门住房的批准大幅下降（-22.3%对6月份的33.5%）。相比之下，私人住房的审批量在上个月下降1.9%后，增长了1.1%。按州划分，新南威尔士州（-24.6%）和南澳大利亚州（-1.3%）的批准数量下降，而塔斯马尼亚州（12.2%）、西澳大利亚州（11.8%）、昆士兰州（5.9%）和维多利亚州（0.7%）的批准量则有所增加。

The seasonally adjusted number of total dwellings approved in Australia dropped by 8.2% month-over-month to 15,769 units in July 2025, more than market expectations of a 4.8% fall and reversing an upwardly revised 12.2% increase in June, a preliminary estimate showed. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses (-22.3% vs 33.5% in June). In contrast, approvals for private sector houses rose by 1.1%, after a 1.9% drop in the previous month. By state, approvals fell in New South Wales (-24.6%) and South Australia (-1.3%), while increased in Tasmania (12.2%), Western Australia (11.8%), Queensland (5.9%), and Victoria (0.7%).

菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯下令从今天9月1日开始暂停大米进口60天，以在收获高峰期保护当地农民。该指令于周六发布，适用于常规碾磨和精米，但不包括通常不在国内种植的品种。暂停将于10月30日结束，但政府可能会“视需要”调整时间表。菲律宾是世界上最大的大米进口国之一，2024年进口了480万吨大米，主要从越南和泰国采购。此举表明，在当地生产强劲的情况下，将国内供应置于优先地位。

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered a 60-day suspension of rice imports starting today, September 1, to shield local farmers during peak harvest. The directive, issued Saturday, applies to regular milled and well-milled rice but excludes varieties not typically grown domestically. The temporary halt is set to end on October 30, though the government may adjust the timeline "as may be necessary." The Philippines, one of the world’s top rice importers, brought in 4.8 million metric tonnes in 2024, sourcing heavily from Vietnam and Thailand. The move signals a shift toward prioritizing domestic supply amid strong local production.

澳新银行澳大利亚就业广告在2025年8月环比微涨0.1%，扭转了前一个月下调0.6%的趋势，突显了低利率下劳动力市场的弹性。澳新银行经济学家Madeline Dunk表示：“招聘广告的持续弹性支持了我们的观点，即失业率可能会大致横盘整理。”她预计澳大利亚储备银行11月将再降息25个基点。随着通货膨胀的缓解和失业率的上升，央行在8月份将利率降至3.6%，这是今年第三次降息。招聘广告同比增长1.9%，仍比疫情前水平高15.1%。与此同时，Indeed的卡拉姆·皮克林（Callam Pickering）指出，8月份教育招聘岗位大幅反弹，此前这对招聘造成了拖累，同时零售和食品服务也出现了强劲增长。他补充说，零售需求将在假日季节进一步加速，特别是在黑色星期五销售临近的情况下。

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads inched up 0.1% month-on-month in August 2025, reversing a downwardly revised 0.6% fall in the previous month and underscoring a resilient labour market amid lower interest rates. “The ongoing resilience in Job Ads supports our view that the unemployment rate is likely to track broadly sideways,” said ANZ economist Madeline Dunk, who expects just one more 25bps cut from the RBA in November. The central bank lowered rates to 3.6% in August, its third cut this year, as inflation eased and joblessness ticked higher. On a yearly basis, job ads rose 1.9%, and remained 15.1% above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, Indeed’s Callam Pickering noted a sharp rebound in education job postings in August, previously a drag on hiring, alongside strong gains in retail and food services. He added that retail demand will accelerate further into the holiday season, particularly with Black Friday sales approaching.

澳大利亚私人通胀调查-0.3%m/m（之前+0.9）和2.8%同比（之前2.9%）。墨尔本研究所（Melbourne Institute）的私人调查通胀指标-之前0.3%的月环比+0.9%的年环比2.8%的年环比2.9%的核心通胀率，即修正后的平均值，在8月份下降了0.2%的月环比2.4%（而之前为2.6%）澳元/美元已回落至0.6537左右的盘中低点。

Australian private inflation survey -0.3% m/m (prior +0.9) & 2.8% y/y (prior 2.9%).The privately surveyed inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute -0.3% m/m prior +0.9% 2.8% y/y prior 2.9% Core inflation, the trimmed mean, fell 0.2% m/m in August 2.4%y/y (vs. prior 2.6%) AUD/USD has dribbled back to its session low around 0.6537.

2025年第二季度，澳大利亚企业利润意外环比下降2.4%，低于市场预测的1.2%的增长，此前第一季度上调了1.0%的收缩。下降的原因是金融和保险服务（第一季度为-7.5%对-11.9%）、行政和支持服务（-11.4%对-7.2%）、采矿（-0.5%对-6.3%）、批发贸易（-4.6%对3.7%）、运输和仓储（-1.6%对4.2%）、租赁和雇佣服务（-3.6%对0.8%）、电力、天然气、水和废物服务（-1.3%对-3.0%）、制造业（-9.3%对9.5%）、艺术和娱乐服务（-3.1%对0.5%）以及零售贸易（-5.8%对5.0%）的利润下降。按年度计算，截至6月，利润下降了3.3%，此前第一季度向上修正了5.2%的下降，这是一年来最小的年度下降。

Corporate profits in Australia unexpectedly fell by 2.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q2 2025, missing market forecasts of a 1.2% increase, following an upwardly revised 1.0% contraction in Q1. The decline was driven by profit falls in financial and insurance services (-7.5% vs -11.9% in Q1), administrative and support services (-11.4% vs -7.2%), mining (-0.5% vs -6.3%), wholesale trade (-4.6% vs 3.7%), transport and warehousing (-1.6% vs 4.2%), rental and hiring services (-3.6% vs 0.8%), electricity, gas, water and waste services (-1.3% vs -3.0%), manufacturing (-9.3% vs 9.5%), arts and recreation services (-3.1% vs 0.5%), and retail trade (-5.8% vs 5.0%). On an annual basis, profits declined by 3.3% through the year to June, after an upwardly revised 5.2% drop in Q1, marking the smallest yearly decline in a year.

标准普尔全球泰国制造业采购经理人指数从7月的51.9升至2025年8月的52.7，标志着连续第四个月增长，也是自2024年7月以来的最快增速。在新订单稳步增长的支撑下，产量以13个月来最快的速度增长，这是今年迄今为止最强劲的增长。新订单的增加完全是由国内需求推动的，因为新出口订单自4月以来首次下降。作为回应，制造商提高了采购水平，并进一步动用库存来完成订单。然而，人员配备水平停滞不前，导致积压再次增加。谈到价格，尽管投入成本持续下降，但8月份平均销售价格略有上涨。最后，商业信心攀升至近两年半以来的最高水平，这得益于对业务扩张计划和新产品发布的预期，以推动未来一年的增长。

The S&P Global Thailand Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in August 2025 from 51.9 in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace since July 2024. Output expanded at the quickest rate in thirteen months, supported by a solid increase in new orders, the strongest so far this year. The rise in new orders was driven solely by domestic demand, as new export orders fell for the first time since April. In response, manufacturers raised their purchasing levels and further reached into their inventories to fulfil orders. However, staffing levels stalled which contributed to a renewed rise in backlogs. Turning to prices, average selling prices rose slightly in August despite a sustained fall in input costs. Lastly, business confidence climbed to its highest level in nearly two-and-a-half years, underpinned by expectations of business expansion plans and new product launches to drive growth in the year ahead.

尽管美国上诉法院裁定特朗普总统的大部分关税是非法的，但特朗普政府仍在推进贸易谈判。美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周日表示，“我们的贸易伙伴……继续与我们密切合作”，交易正在取得进展，“无论本法院在此期间可能会说什么”。联邦巡回法院的7-4裁决发现，虽然国会授予总统紧急权力，但它没有“明确包括征收关税、关税等的权力，也没有征税的权力”。该裁决影响了4月份引入的互惠关税以及2月份针对中国、加拿大和墨西哥的关税，但不包括根据其他法律框架发布的关税。特朗普批评了这一决定，并承诺向最高法院上诉。关税将持续到10月14日。贸易专家表示，政府已经预料到这一裁决，并准备采取后备策略。

The Trump administration is pressing ahead with trade negotiations despite a U.S. appeals court ruling that deemed most of President Trump's tariffs illegal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that “our trading partners… continue to work very closely with us,” and that deals are progressing “regardless of what this court may say in the interim.” The Federal Circuit Court’s 7–4 decision found that while Congress granted emergency powers to the president, it did not “explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax.” The ruling affects reciprocal tariffs introduced in April and those targeting China, Canada, and Mexico in February, but excludes tariffs issued under other legal frameworks. Trump criticized the decision and pledged to appeal to the Supreme Court. The tariffs will remain in effect until October 14. Trade experts say the administration had anticipated the ruling and is readying fallback strategies.

布伦特原油期货周一跌至每桶67.2美元，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因市场担忧供应过剩和需求前景疲软。投资者等待本周晚些时候的欧佩克+会议，该组织加速增产提高了全球供应前景。尽管如此，这些额外的石油还没有完全到达美国这个世界上最大的燃料市场，夏季驾驶季节的结束已经给需求预期带来了压力。这些担忧抵消了持续的俄罗斯-乌克兰战争带来的地缘政治风险溢价，以及美国可能收紧制裁以遏制全球资金流动的可能性。交易员们还在评估，在华盛顿上周对新德里征收二级关税后，印度是否会屈服于美国的压力，停止购买俄罗斯的石油。在其他地方，即将举行的上合组织峰会也将受到密切关注，预计中国国家主席Xi、俄罗斯总统普京和印度总理莫迪都将出席。

Brent crude oil futures fell to $67.2 per barrel on Monday, extending losses from the prior session, amid concerns over a looming oversupply and weaker demand prospects. Investors await the OPEC+ meeting later this week, with accelerated output increases from the group raising the global supply outlook. Still, these additional barrels have yet to fully reach the US, the world’s largest fuel market, where the end of the summer driving season is already weighing on demand expectations. These concerns are offsetting geopolitical risk premium stemming from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential for tighter US sanctions that could curb global flows. Traders are also assessing whether India will yield to US pressure to end Russian oil purchases, after Washington imposed secondary tariffs on New Delhi last week. Elsewhere, the upcoming SCO summit will also be closely watched, with Chinese President Xi, Russian President Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Modi all expected to attend.

周一，WTI原油期货跌至每桶63.8美元，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因市场担忧供应过剩和需求前景疲软。投资者等待本周晚些时候的欧佩克+会议，该组织加速增产提高了全球供应前景。尽管如此，这些额外的石油还没有完全到达美国这个世界上最大的燃料市场，夏季驾驶季节的结束已经给需求预期带来了压力。这些担忧抵消了持续的俄罗斯-乌克兰战争带来的地缘政治风险溢价，以及美国可能收紧制裁以遏制全球资金流动的可能性。交易员们还在评估，在华盛顿上周对新德里征收二级关税后，印度是否会屈服于美国的压力，停止购买俄罗斯的石油。在其他地方，即将举行的上合组织峰会也将受到密切关注，预计中国国家主席Xi、俄罗斯总统普京和印度总理莫迪都将出席。

WTI crude oil futures fell to $63.8 per barrel on Monday, extending losses from the previous session, amid concerns over a looming oversupply and weaker demand prospects. Investors await the OPEC+ meeting later this week, with accelerated output increases from the group raising the global supply outlook. Still, these additional barrels have yet to fully reach the US, the world’s largest fuel market, where the end of the summer driving season is already weighing on demand expectations. These concerns are offsetting geopolitical risk premium stemming from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential for tighter US sanctions that could curb global flows. Traders are also assessing whether India will yield to US pressure to end Russian oil purchases, after Washington imposed secondary tariffs on New Delhi last week. Elsewhere, the upcoming SCO summit will also be closely watched, with Chinese President Xi, Russian President Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Modi all expected to attend.