周一，由于对美国经济的担忧日益加剧，白银价格升至每盎司49美元以上，创下三周新高。美元走弱支撑了此次反弹，这使得以美元计价的大宗商品对外国买家来说更便宜。密歇根大学11月消费者信心指数降至50.3，为历史第二低，低于预期的53.2，因为美国人担心美国历史上最长的政府停摆对经济的影响。周四的私人数据显示，美国经济在10月份失去了15.3万个工作岗位，这是22年来的最高水平，主要是由于成本削减和人工智能的采用。在货币政策方面，市场对美联储是否会在12月降息仍存在分歧，交易员预计降息25个基点的可能性约为67%，与周五持平。

Silver rose above $49 per ounce on Monday, reaching a three-week high amid growing concerns over the US economy. The rally was supported by a weaker dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, the second-lowest reading on record and below expectations of 53.2, as Americans worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in US history. Private data on Thursday showed the US economy lost 153,000 jobs in October, the highest for the month in 22 years, driven largely by cost-cutting and AI adoption. In monetary policy, markets remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with traders pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a quarter-point reduction, unchanged from Friday.

马来西亚的失业率从一年前的3.2%降至2025年9月的3.0%，连续第四个月降至2015年4月以来的最低水平。失业人数同比下降5.5%，至51.86万人，为六年多来的最低点，而就业人数增长3.1%，达到创纪录的1703万人。与此同时，劳动力参与率从去年同期的70.5%上升到70.9%，保持了历史最高水平

Malaysia’s unemployment rate declined to 3.0% in September 2025 from 3.2% a year earlier, marking its lowest level since April 2015 for the fourth consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons fell 5.5% year-on-year to a more than six-year low of 518.6 thousand, while employment rose 3.1% to a record high of 17.03 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased to 70.9%, maintaining a record peak, from 70.5% in the same month a year earlier

离岸人民币兑美元汇率保持在7.12左右，横盘整理，周末数据显示，中国10月份消费者价格意外上涨0.2%，从9月份0.3%的跌幅反弹，打破了没有变化的预测。上个月生产者价格指数下跌2.1%，为14个月来最低跌幅。这些数据是在上周贸易数据显示出口意外下降和进口放缓之后公布的。在贸易方面，北京取消了对美国的“两用物品”出口禁令，包括镓、锗、锑和超硬材料，并豁免了荷兰公司Nexperia的民用芯片，帮助缓解了汽车制造商的供应短缺。上个月，中国和美国同意将临时贸易休战再延长一年，并在关键问题上做出让步。与此同时，中国人民银行将美元/人民币参考汇率定为7.0856，强于市场预期。

The offshore yuan remained around 7.12 per dollar, trading in a sideways range as weekend data showed consumer prices in China unexpectedly rose 0.2% in October, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in September and defying forecasts for no change. Producer prices fell 2.1% last month, the softest decrease in 14 months. Those figures followed trade data last week pointing to a surprise decline in exports and slowing imports. On the trade front, Beijing lifted its export ban on “dual-use items” including gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US, and granted exemptions for Dutch firm Nexperia’s chips for civilian use, helping ease supply shortages for automakers. Last month, China and the US agreed to extend their temporary trade truce for another year with concessions on key issues. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0856, stronger than market expectations.

印尼股市周一早盘上涨57点，涨幅0.7%，达到8451点的新高，标志着第四个交易日上涨。公用事业、医疗保健和工业服务业领涨。对美国政府停摆可能结束的乐观情绪提振了市场情绪，支持了美国期货在动荡一周后的上涨。在印度尼西亚最大的贸易伙伴中国，受假期支出的推动，消费者价格自10月6月以来首次上涨，而出厂价格下降幅度为14个月来最小，缓解了通货紧缩风险。在当地，10月份消费者情绪升至6个月高点，这得益于政府的支持措施，包括现金发放。然而，在9月份当地零售额和中国10月份的关键数据（包括工业生产、零售额和失业率）公布之前，涨幅受到限制。早期上涨股包括Barito可再生能源（4.5%）、Sarana Menara Nusantara（5.6%）、Archi Indonesia（3.5%）和Bayan Resources（1.5%）。

Indonesian stocks rose 57 points, or 0.7%, to a fresh peak of 8,451 in Monday morning trading, marking a fourth session of gains. Strength was broad-based, led by utilities, healthcare, and industrial services. Optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted sentiment, supporting a rise in U.S. futures after a volatile week. In China, Indonesia’s largest trading partner, consumer prices rose for the first time since June in October, boosted by holiday spending, while factory-gate prices fell the least in 14 months, easing deflation risks. Locally, consumer mood rose to a 6-month high in October, aided by government support measures including cash handouts. However, gains were capped ahead of local retail turnover for September and key October data from China, including industrial production, retail sales, and the jobless rate. Early gainers included Barito Renewables Energy (4.5%), Sarana Menara Nusantara (5.6%), Archi Indonesia (3.5%), and Bayan Resources (1.5%).

澳元攀升至0.65美元以上，接近一周高点，此前澳大利亚储备银行副行长Andrew Hauser指出，货币政策面临不同寻常的挑战，并强调需要保持紧缩政策以遏制通胀。豪瑟补充说，去年GDP增长加速时，需求“略”高于潜在水平，这标志着自20世纪80年代初以来最为紧张的复苏，如果不重新引发通货膨胀，几乎没有扩张的空间。本月早些时候，由于持续的潜在价格压力，澳大利亚储备银行将政策利率维持在3.6%。市场普遍预计，明年5月可能会再次降息，尽管一些分析师警告称，宽松周期可能已经结束。澳元也受到风险情绪改善的支撑，市场希望美国政府结束创纪录的长期停摆，缓解美中贸易紧张局势。

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.65, nearing one-week highs, after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that monetary policy faces an unusual challenge and emphasized the need to keep policy tight to contain inflation. Hauser added that demand was “slightly” above potential when GDP growth accelerated last year, marking the tightest recovery since the early 1980s and leaving little room for expansion without reigniting inflation. Earlier this month, the RBA held its policy rate at 3.6% amid persistent underlying price pressures. Markets largely expect one more rate cut, likely by May next year, though some analysts warn the easing cycle may already be over. The Aussie was also supported by improved risk sentiment on hopes for an end to the record-long US government shutdown and easing US-China trade tensions.

日本10年期政府债券收益率攀升至1.69%，接近17年高点，因为日本央行10月份的意见摘要表明，政策制定者密切关注国内工资趋势，认为下一次加息即将到来。市场现在正在权衡12月或1月采取行动的可能性，这取决于企业盈利和高管指导是否提供了明年工资将继续上涨的信心。与此同时，日本首相高一的刺激计划草案显示，政府将敦促央行在稳定物价的同时优先考虑强劲的经济增长。该计划预计将于11月21日敲定，将包括针对17个关键行业的减税和投资激励措施。

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 1.69%, approaching 17-year highs, as the Bank of Japan’s October Summary of Opinions indicated policymakers see the next rate hike on the horizon, closely monitoring domestic wage trends. Markets are now weighing the possibility of a move in December or January, depending on whether corporate earnings and executive guidance provide confidence that wages will continue rising next year. Meanwhile, a draft of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus plan showed the government will urge the central bank to prioritize robust economic growth alongside stable prices. The package, expected to be finalized on November 21, is set to include tax cuts and investment incentives targeting 17 key industries.

印尼消费者信心指数从9月份的115.0升至2025年10月的121.2，这是自2022年4月以来的最低水平。这标志着自4月以来的最高消费者信心水平，因为所有六个主要子指数都有所改善。经济前景上升6.2点，至133.4点，而与六个月前相比，就业机会增加10.6点，至102.6点。对当前经济状况的看法上升6.4点，至109.1点，当前收入水平上升4.2点，至117.1点，未来六个月的收入预期上升4.1点，至138.4点。此外，与六个月前相比，耐用品购买指数上升4.3点，至107.5。对未来六个月工作机会的预期也有所上升，上升8.9点至132.0。

Indonesia's consumer confidence rose to 121.2 in October 2025, up from 115.0 in September, which had been the lowest reading since April 2022. This marked the highest consumer confidence level since April, as all six main sub-indices improved. The economic outlook rose 6.2 points to 133.4, while job availability compared to six months ago increased 10.6 points to 102.6. Perceptions of current economic conditions climbed 6.4 points to 109.1, current income levels rose 4.2 points to 117.1, and income expectations for the next six months rose 4.1 points to 138.4. Additionally, the index for purchasing durable goods compared to six months ago increased 4.3 points to 107.5. Expectations for job availability over the next six months also rose, up 8.9 points to 132.0.

日本央行长川：将做出适当的政策决定。日本央行长川：将做出适当的政策决定

BoJ's Nagakawa: Will make appropriate policy decision.BoJ's Nagakawa: Will make appropriate policy decision

周一，10年期国债收益率攀升3个基点，至4.13%左右，有迹象表明，可能正在达成一项协议，以结束创纪录的长期政府停摆。参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩周日表示，一项联邦预算协议正在形成，可能会在1月之前重新开放政府，并扭转最近的一些联邦裁员。报道还表明，即使不延长医疗补贴，一些民主党人也可能支持该计划，尽管不确定性仍然很高。上周疲软的美国经济数据加剧了市场的紧张情绪，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数降至近三年半以来的最低水平，挑战者报告显示10月份裁员激增。在货币政策方面，市场对美联储12月可能降息仍存在分歧，交易员预计降息25个基点的可能性约为67%，与周五持平。

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to around 4.13% on Monday amid signs that a deal may be emerging to end the record-long government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Sunday that a federal budget agreement is taking shape, potentially reopening the government through January and reversing some recent federal layoffs. Reports also suggested that some Democrats could back the package even without extending health care subsidies, though uncertainty remains high. Weak US economic data last week added to market jitters, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years and the Challenger report showing a surge in October job cuts. In monetary policy, markets remain divided on a potential Fed rate cut in December, with traders pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a quarter-point reduction, unchanged from Friday.

周一，上证综指下跌0.1%，至3995点左右，而深证成份股下跌0.4%，至13350点，内地股市连续第二个交易日下跌，因为强于预期的通胀数据抑制了对短期政策支持的希望。周末公布的数据显示，中国10月份消费者价格意外上涨0.2%，从9月份0.3%的跌幅反弹，与没有变化的预测相悖。上个月生产者价格指数下跌2.1%，为14个月来最低跌幅。这些数据是在周五贸易数据显示出口意外下降和进口放缓之后公布的。科技股和清洁能源股领跌，特变电工（-2%）、阳光电源（-3.5%）、富士康工业（-5.7%）、易通科技（-5.8%）和中集创新科技（-4.2%）跌幅显著。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1% to around 3,995 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.4% to 13,350 on Monday, with mainland stocks sliding for the second straight session as stronger-than-expected inflation data dampened hopes for near-term policy support. Data released over the weekend showed that consumer prices in China unexpectedly rose 0.2% in October, rebounding from a 0.3% fall in September and defying forecasts for no change. Producer prices fell 2.1% last month, the softest decrease in 14 months. Those figures followed trade data on Friday pointing to a surprise decline in exports and slowing imports. Tech and clean energy stocks led the decline, with notable losses from TBEA Co (-2%), Sungrow Power (-3.5%), Foxconn Industrial (-5.7%), Eoptolink Technology (-5.8%) and Zhongji Innolight (-4.2%).

据美国有线电视新闻网报道，卫星图像显示，自2020年以来，中国的导弹建设速度加快。美国有线电视新闻网的一项调查显示，自2020年以来，中国大幅扩大了导弹生产网络，这标志着分析人士所说的与美国新一轮军备竞赛的早期阶段。

Satellite images show China's missile buildup accelerating since 2020, CNN reports.China has dramatically expanded its missile production network since 2020, marking what analysts describe as the early phase of a new arms race with the United States, according to a CNN investigation.

周一，韩国综合股价指数上涨近3%，收于4050点以上，收复了上周跌幅的一半以上，因为全球风险情绪有所改善，人们希望结束美国政府创纪录的长期停摆。上周，全球股市面临压力，由于对人工智能估值过高的担忧日益加剧，科技股首当其冲。然而，随着逢低买盘者的介入，这些担忧在本周初似乎有所缓解。芯片制造商和人工智能相关股票领涨，SK海力士（5.1%）、三星电子（2.4%）和Koh Young Technology（10.6%）强劲上涨。金融公司也贡献了涨幅，包括KB Financial（4.3%）、新韩金融（2.7%）和未来资产证券（3.5%）。与此同时，韩国市场仍然容易受到波动加剧的影响，因为上周保证金贷款跃升至历史最高水平。

The KOSPI Composite Index rallied nearly 3% to above 4,050 on Monday, recovering more than half of the losses from last week as global risk sentiment improved amid hopes for an end to the record-long US government shutdown. Last week, global stocks came under pressure, with technology shares bearing the brunt due to mounting concerns over stretched AI valuations. However, those fears appear to have eased at the start of the week, with bargain hunters stepping in. Chipmakers and AI-related stocks led the advance, with strong gains from SK Hynix (5.1%), Samsung Electronics (2.4%) and Koh Young Technology (10.6%). Financial firms also contributed to gains, including KB Financial (4.3%), Shinhan Financial (2.7%) and Mirae Asset Securities (3.5%). Meanwhile, South Korea’s market remains vulnerable to heightened volatility as margin lending jumped to an all-time high last week.

香港股市周一早盘上涨115点，涨幅0.4%，至26352点，从之前的下跌中反弹，消费者和房地产股领涨。受假期支出和扩大的以旧换新计划的推动，中国10月消费者价格意外同比上涨0.2%，这是自6月以来的首次上涨，市场情绪有所改善。生产者价格指数也以14个月来最慢的速度下降，缓解了人们对通货紧缩的担忧，并在持续的价格战中支撑了工业利润率。与此同时，美国期货在经历了动荡的一周后上涨，这得益于对美国政府可能结束创纪录的长期停摆的乐观情绪，此前温和的参议院民主党人支持一项融资协议。然而，在中国公布信贷增长、工业产出和零售销售等关键数据之前，涨幅受到限制。值得注意的早期上涨股包括波普国际（3.9%）、招金矿业（3.0%）、腾讯控股（2.1%）和恒基兆业地产（1.8%）。

Hong Kong shares increased 115 points, or 0.4%, to 26,352 in Monday morning trade, rebounding from prior losses as consumer and property stocks led gains. Sentiment improved after China’s October consumer prices unexpectedly rose 0.2% yoy, the first gain since June, fueled by holiday spending and expanded trade-in programs. Producer prices also declined at the slowest pace in 14 months, easing deflation fears and supporting industrial margins amid ongoing price wars. Meanwhile, U.S. futures advanced after a volatile week, supported by optimism over a potential end to the record-long U.S. government shutdown, following moderate Senate Democrats’ support for a funding deal. However, gains were capped ahead of key Chinese data releases, including credit growth, industrial output, and retail sales. Notable early risers included Pop Mart International (3.9%), Zhaojin Mining Industry (3.0%), Tencent Holdings (2.1%), and Henderson Land Development (1.8%).

卢比可能会从美元下跌中温和回升；RBI看到保持地板。受美元小幅回落和央行支持预期的支撑，印度卢比周一可能开盘小幅走高。

Rupee may see mild lift from dollar dip; RBI seen keeping floor.The Indian rupee is likely to open slightly higher on Monday, supported by a modest pullback in the dollar and expectations of central bank support.

印尼10月消费者信心指数从之前的115升至121.2。印尼10月消费者信心指数从之前的115升至121.2

Indonesia Consumer Confidence increased to 121.2 in October from previous 115.Indonesia Consumer Confidence increased to 121.2 in October from previous 115