英国2025年预算预览：财政拖累、财富税和市场对英镑和金边债券的影响。工党政府将于11月26日公布一项关键的预算计划。主要目标不是宣布新的支出，而是证明政府在资金方面非常谨慎，以保持金融市场的稳定。

UK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & Gilts.The Labour government is set to release a crucial budget plan on November 26. Instead of announcing new spending, the main goal is to prove that the government is being careful with money to keep financial markets stable.

美联储可能在12月降息后暂停加息。强劲的经济等于强势的货币。尽管美联储12月降息的可能性升至81%，但美元仍保持稳定。

Fed May Pause After December Cut.A strong economy equals a strong currency. The US dollar remains stable even as the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises to 81%.

美元预测：就业数据疲软，DXY跌破200日均线。DXY指数跌破200日均线99.816点，疲软的劳动力数据和降温的通胀推动12月美联储降息的可能性达到80%。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Breaks Below 200-Day MA on Weak Jobs Data.The DXY broke below its 200-day MA at 99.816 as soft labor data and cooling inflation fuel 80% odds of a December Fed rate cut.

11月美国消费者信心也下跌88.7，预期深陷衰退区。11月，美国会议委员会消费者信心指数大幅下降，从95.5降至88.7，低于93.4的预期。这两个主要组成部分均有所减弱：现状指数下跌4.3点，至126.9点，而预期指数下跌8.6点，至63.2点。

US consumer confidence falls too 88.7 in November, expectations deep in recession zone.US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell sharply in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7 and undershooting expectations of 93.4. Both major components weakened: Present Situation Index slipped -4.3 points to 126.9, while Expectations Index fell -8.6 points to 63.2.

原油预测：WTI接近乌克兰和平希望的多年低点。经过数周的深思熟虑和外交努力，美国广播公司新闻今天上午报道称，乌克兰同意了一项修订后的和平协议的条款，以结束与俄罗斯的战争。虽然目前细节尚不明朗（至关重要的是，“一些小细节悬而未决”），但市场对这一消息反应积极，推动油价全面下跌。

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Nears Multi-Year Lows on Ukraine Peace Hopes.After weeks of deliberation and diplomacy, ABC News reported this morning that Ukraine agreed to the terms of a revised peace deal to end the war with Russia. While details are light at this point (and crucially, “some minor details are outstanding”), markets are reacting positively to the news, driving oil prices lower across the board.

美国CB消费者信心指数11月降至88.7。美国CB消费者信心指数11月降至88.7

US CB Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November.US CB Consumer Confidence Index fell to 88.7 in November

美国10月待售房屋销售为1.9%，而预期为0.5%。上月0.0%。74.8指数修订274.9待售房屋销售环比1.9%，而预估的0.5%待售房屋指数为76.3，而上月为74.8。

US pending home sales for October 1.9% versus 0.5% estimate.Prior month 0.0%. Index 74.8 revised 274.9 Pending home sales month-to-month 1.9% vs 0.5% estimate Pending home sales index 76.3 vs 74.8 last month.

美国11月里士满联储综合指数-15，此前为-4。根据里士满联邦储备银行的最新调查，第五区11月的制造业活动有所下降。综合制造业指数从10月的-4降至11月的-15。

US November Richmond Fed composite index -15 vs -4 prior.Fifth District manufacturing activity declined in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index dropped to −15 in November from −4 in October.

美国待售房屋销售、消费者信心和里士满联储将于美国东部时间上午10点公布。美国数据将于上午10点公布，其中包括：10月份待售房屋。预计11月消费者信心指数为0.5%。

US pending home sales, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed to be released at 10 AM ET.US data will be released at 10 AM including: Pending home sales for October. Estimate 0.5% Consumer confidence for November.

英镑在英国预算之前小幅上涨——丰业银行。英镑在英国预算之前小幅上涨——丰业银行

GBP edges higher ahead of UK budget – Scotiabank.GBP edges higher ahead of UK budget – Scotiabank

原油价格展望——周二原油继续下跌。油价继续下跌，因为持续的供应过剩、关键均线水平的阻力以及主要价格上限附近的反复失败使涨势承压。在假日周交易清淡的情况下，WTI和布伦特原油仍坚定地处于上涨区间。

Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Continues to See Selling on Tuesday.Oil extends its decline as persistent oversupply, resistance at key EMA levels, and repeated failures near major price ceilings keep rallies under pressure. Both WTI and Brent remain firmly in fade-the-rally territory amid thin holiday-week trading.

美国：9月零售销售放缓。延迟发布的零售销售报告显示，9月份零售销售环比增长0.2%。支出增长速度较前两个月每年0.6%的月增长率有所放缓，略低于普遍预期的0.3%的增长率。

US: Retail Sales Slow in September .The delayed retail sales report showed retail sales rising by 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) in September. Spending growth decelerated from a 0.6% m/m pace seen in each of the prior two months and was slightly weaker than consensus expectations which called for a 0.3% gain.

鸽派重新定价导致美元进一步走软；Bessent暗示美联储主席即将做出决定。美元兑欧元和日元在美国早盘明显走弱，追随国债收益率再次下跌，因为市场吸收了低于预期的9月零售销售。虽然该报告是回顾性的，但它强化了消费的发展方向，并为需求稳步降温的观点增加了砝码。

Dollar Softens Further on Dovish Repricing; Bessent Signals Fed Chair Decision Near.Dollar weakened notably against Euro and Yen in early U.S. session, tracking another leg lower in Treasury yields as markets absorbed softer-than-expected September retail sales. While the report was backward-looking, it reinforced the direction of travel for consumption and added incremental weight to the view that demand is steadily cooling.

9月美国PPI上涨0.3%，核心压力缓解。美国9月生产者价格指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%，与预期相符。整个月的涨幅来自商品，价格上涨0.9%，而服务业持平。

US PPI rises 0.3% mom in September, core pressure eases.US PPI rose 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy in September, matching expectations. The entire monthly advance came from goods, where prices jumped 0.9%, while services were flat.

美国9月份零售额环比增长0.2%。9月份美国零售额环比增长0.2%，至7333亿美元，低于0.4%的预期。前汽车销售表现略好，为0.3%，符合预期。

US retail sales miss at 0.2% mom growth in September.US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 733.3B in September, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Ex-auto sales performed slightly better at 0.3% mom, in line with expectations.