比特币现金/美元 (BCHUSD) 加自选

周二，美国10年期国债收益率稳定在4.2%左右，投资者正在等待本周美国劳动力市场的关键报告，以评估利率前景。周二将公布职位空缺数据，周四将公布首次申请失业救济人数，周五将公布11月非农就业报告。市场还关注几位美联储官员的讲话，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔计划于周三晚些时候发表讲话。与此同时，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一表示，他赞成在12月的会议上降息。市场对此的反应是，上调了本月降息25个基点的预期，目前的可能性约为76%。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained steady at around 4.2% on Tuesday as investors await key US labor market reports this week to gauge the outlook for interest rates. Job openings data is due on Tuesday, followed by initial jobless claims on Thursday and the November nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Markets are also focused on speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak late Wednesday. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on Monday that he favored lowering rates at the December meeting. Markets responded by ramping up expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month, with the probability currently at about 76%.

周二，金价稳定在每盎司2640美元左右，因为投资者正在为美国关键的就业数据和美联储官员的更多讲话做准备，这些讲话可能会明确美联储的货币政策前景。周一，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，他倾向于支持本月晚些时候再次降息，而纽约联邦银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯建议逐步转向更中立的政策立场。这促使投资者在美联储12月17日至18日的会议上大幅提高了对再次降息25个基点的预期，目前市场预计这一举措的可能性为75%。这将降低持有无息黄金的机会成本，提高其吸引力。此外，黄金价格仍然受到中东地缘政治紧张局势的支撑，特别是以色列和真主党之间尽管达成停火协议仍在持续的冲突。

Gold stabilized around $2,640 per ounce on Tuesday as investors braced for crucial US jobs data and more speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which could offer clarity on the central bank's monetary policy outlook. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is inclined to support another rate cut later this month, while Fed Bank of New York President John Williams suggested a gradual shift toward a more neutral policy stance. This prompted investors to significantly increase expectations for another 25bps rate cut at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, with markets currently pricing in a 75% chance of such a move. This would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, boosting its appeal. Moreover, bullion prices remained supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah despite a ceasefire agreement.

利雅得银行沙特阿拉伯的采购经理人指数从上个月的56.9攀升至2024年11月的59.0，为2023年7月以来的最高水平，并连续第四个月保持上升势头。

Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia's PMI climbed to 59.0 in November 2024 from 56.9 in the prior month, pointing to the highest reading since July 2023 and continuing its upward momentum for the fourth month running.

离岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至7.31左右，创下一年新低，原因是美元因对美国经济表现强劲的预期而走强，而中国经济增长因对美国关税上调的担忧而疲软。在特朗普警告可能对支持美元替代品的金砖国家征收100%关税后，美元获得了进一步的支持。与此同时，持续的关税风险和中国经济疲软给人民币带来了额外的压力。此外，本周PMI数据喜忧参半，显示制造业活动略有改善，但服务业活动弱于预期，这暗示了进一步的政策支持。周一，中国人民银行行长潘暗示年底降息，并计划明年加强反周期措施。

The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.31 per dollar, reaching a one-year low, as the dollar strengthened on expectations of robust US economic performance and lackluster Chinese growth amid concerns over higher US tariffs. The greenback gained further support following Trump’s warning of potential 100% tariffs on BRICS nations that support an alternative to the US dollar. Meanwhile, continued tariff risks and weakness in China’s economy put additional pressure on the yuan. Moreover, mixed PMI data over the week which revealed a modest improvement in the manufacturing activity but weaker-than-expected services activity, suggested further policy support. On Monday, PBOC Governor Pan signaled year-end rate cuts and plans to boost countercyclical measures next year.