英镑/美元 (GBPUSD) 加自选

市场评估央行决策时美元和英镑的走势。周三，在美联储决定降息0.25%后，美元大幅下跌。然而，到交易日结束时，它已经收复了部分损失，反映出监管机构下一步行动的持续不确定性。

Dollar and the Pound Shift Course As Markets Assess Central Bank Decisions.The US dollar fell sharply on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 0.25%. However, by the end of the session it had regained part of its losses, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over the regulator's next moves.

美联储的决定是鸽派还是鹰派？让我们看看与市场定价相比，我们得到了什么。昨天，在美联储做出决定之前，我写下了所有预期的事情和所有潜在的惊喜。让我们看看我们得到了什么。

Was the Fed decision dovish or hawkish? Let's see what we got compared to market pricing.Yesterday, ahead of the Fed decision, I wrote down all the things that were expected and all the potential surprises. Let's see what we got.

周四，富时100指数持平，小幅上涨，投资者等待英格兰银行今天晚些时候的决定，并消化了美联储25个基点的降息。尽管美联储按预期行事，但它表示对激进的宽松周期持谨慎态度，尽管在劳动力市场疲软的情况下，今年仍有两次降息的空间。美元走强提振了大型跨国公司，但零售商Next拖累了该指数，在一份罕见的报告没有上调指导后下跌了6%以上。尽管上半年销售额增长了10%，利润增长了14%，均高于预期，但Next仍坚持其年度指导方针，并警告下半年增长将放缓。该公司表示，尽管宣布增加股息，但就业疲软和英国经济增长缓慢仍是谨慎的原因。

The FTSE 100 traded flat to slightly higher on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England’s decision later today and digested the Fed’s quarter-point cut. While the Fed delivered as expected, it signaled caution against an aggressive easing cycle, though it still sees room for two more cuts this year amid labor market weakness. A stronger dollar lifted big multinationals, but retailer Next weighed on the index, tumbling over 6% after a rare report without a guidance upgrade. Despite first-half sales rising 10% and profit 14%—both ahead of estimates—Next stuck to its annual guidance and warned second-half growth would slow. The company cited weakening employment and sluggish UK growth as reasons for caution, even as it announced a dividend increase.

英格兰银行在8月份降息25个基点后，预计将在2025年9月的会议上将基准利率保持在4%，因为它在缓慢增长的同时通胀仍然居高不下。8月份CPI为3.8%，与7月份的18个月高点持平，9月份通胀预测将达到4%，并在2027年春季之前保持在2%的目标之上。虽然基本工资的工资增长放缓至4.8%，但劳动力市场继续对物价施加上行压力。英国经济增长仍然疲软，截至7月的三个月仅增长0.2%。英国央行可能会在量化紧缩方面保持谨慎的步伐，在市场波动的情况下减缓每年1000亿英镑的金边债券平仓；持有量已从2022年的8750亿英镑降至5580亿英镑。州长Andrew Bailey表示，利率路径是“开放的”，民意调查显示，货币政策委员会可能会将金边债券的解除额降至675亿英镑左右。

The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.