英镑/美元 (GBPUSD) 加自选

富时100指数在周一开局不利后，在8270附近几乎持平，交易员们为美联储和英格兰银行的利率决定做好了关键一周的准备。尽管人们普遍预计美联储将降息，但降息幅度仍存在不确定性。与此同时，预计英格兰银行将保持利率稳定。凤凰集团领跌，在停止出售其SunLife业务后下跌超过3%，尽管上半年营业利润增长了15%，并重申了中期盈利目标。紧随其后的是保诚（-1.5%）和梅尔罗斯工业（-1.4%），劳斯莱斯集团和易捷航空也下跌。主要矿业公司也拖累了该指数，安托法加斯塔和力拓均下跌超过1%，此前中国公布了悲观的经济数据。

The FTSE 100 was almost flat around 8,270 after a negative start on Monday, as traders geared up for a crucial week with interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. While the Fed is widely expected to cut rates, uncertainty lingers over the extent of the reduction. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady. Phoenix Group led the losses, falling over 3% after halting the sale of its SunLife business, despite a 15% rise in first-half operating profits and reaffirmed medium-term earnings targets. It was followed by Prudential (-1.5%) and Melrose Industries (-1.4%), with Rolls-Royce Group and easyJet also lower. The major mining companies also dragged down the index, with Antofagasta and Rio Tinto both losing over 1%, following downbeat economic data from China.

周一，美国10年期国债收益率跌至3.34%左右，徘徊在2023年5月以来的最低水平，因为交易员们纷纷押注美联储本周开始降息时将采取更积极的行动。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储周三将大幅降息50个基点的可能性为59%，高于一个月前的25%，而适度降息25个基点的几率为41%。尽管最新的就业数据显示劳动力市场放缓的迹象，但8月份的关键通胀数据仍高于上周的预期。投资者还期待周二美国零售销售和工业生产数据，以获得更多关于经济的见解。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury slipped to around 3.34% on Monday, hovering at its lowest levels since May 2023 as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve will move more aggressively when it starts cutting interest rates this week. Markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, up from 25% a month ago, while odds for a modest 25 bps reduction stands at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Those expectations came even after key inflation figures for August came in hotter-than-anticipated last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market. Investors also look ahead to US retail sales and industrial production numbers on Tuesday for more insights on the economy.

周一，美元指数跌至101以下，连续第三个交易日下跌，因为越来越多的人猜测美联储将在本周的政策会议上更积极地降息。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储周三将大幅降息50个基点的可能性为59%，高于一个月前的25%，而适度降息25个基点的几率为41%。尽管最新的就业数据显示劳动力市场放缓的迹象，但8月份的关键通胀数据仍高于上周的预期。投资者还期待周二美国零售销售和工业生产数据，以获得更多关于经济的见解。美元全面走弱，对日元、欧元和英镑的抛售活动最为明显。

The dollar index fell below 101 on Monday, sliding for the third straight session on growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively at this week’s policy meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will deliver a larger 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, up from 25% a month ago, while odds for a modest 25 bps reduction stands at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Those expectations came even after key inflation figures for August came in hotter-than-anticipated last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market. Investors also look ahead to US retail sales and industrial production numbers on Tuesday for more insights on the economy. The dollar weakened across the board, with the most pronounced selling activity seen against the yen, euro and sterling.

周一，美国股指期货保持稳定，投资者为美联储本周备受期待的政策决定做好准备，预计美联储将自2020年以来首次降息。上周，道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数分别上涨2.6%和4.02%，两个基准指数均接近历史新高。纳斯达克综合指数也上涨了5.95%，为去年10月以来的最佳一周。这些涨幅出现之际，市场摆脱了9月份历史性疲软的艰难开局，并猜测美联储本周可能会大幅降息50个基点。目前，降息四分之一或半个百分点的可能性约为50%，基本上是在决定前几天抛硬币。投资者还期待周二公布的8月零售销售数据和本周公布的更多盈利报告。在其他地方，交易员在唐纳德·特朗普再次遭到明显暗杀后，密切关注了美国的政治发展。

US stock futures held steady on Monday as investors geared up for the highly-anticipated policy decision from the Federal Reserve this week, where it is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2020. Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 jumped 2.6% and 4.02%, respectively, with both benchmarks approaching new record highs. The Nasdaq Composite also rallied 5.95%, its best week since October last year. Those gains came as the market shook off a rough start to a historically weak September and on speculation that the Fed could deliver a supersized 50 basis point rate cut this week. Odds for both a quarter- or half-point rate reduction currently stand at around 50%, basically a coin toss just days before the decision. Investors also look ahead to August retail sales data on Tuesday and more earning reports this week. Elsewhere, traders monitored political developments in the US after another apparent assassination attempt on Donald Trump.