英镑/瑞郎 (GBPCHF) 加自选

英国央行本周可能放缓降息周期。英格兰银行周四似乎可能会保持利率不变，自去年开始放松政策以来首次放缓降息步伐，尽管一些分析师现在确实预计，在通胀和工资数据疲软后，利率会下降。

Bank of England likely to slow rate-cut cycle this week.The Bank of England looks likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, slowing its pace of cuts for the first time since it started to loosen policy last year, although some analysts do now expect a reduction after softer inflation and wage data.

英国经济预测：通胀降温，降息迫在眉睫。Pantheon Macroeconomics英国预测：通胀疲软使12月降息成为增长弹性，Pantheon宏观经济学的英国经济学家预计，英国经济第三季度将增长0.2%，理由是企业活动数据和情绪改善。该公司表示：“GDP和零售额的表现好于预期。”。

UK Economic Forecasts: Rate Cut Looms as Inflation Cools.Pantheon Macroeconomics UK Forecast: Softer Inflation Brings December Rate Cut into View Growth Resilient, Inflation Softens UK economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the UK economy to grow 0.2% in Q3, citing firm activity data and improving sentiment. “GDP and retail sales have held up better than feared,” the firm said.

富时100指数周五收于9717点，下跌约0.4%，从周四的历史高点回落，结束了九天的连胜。交易员权衡了繁忙的一周企业盈利、经济数据和央行决策。美国和中国在技术和贸易方面的一年休战也一直处于幕后。与此同时，投资者展望了下周的英格兰银行会议，普遍预计政策制定者将保持利率不变，尽管降息的预期正在上升。在商业方面，媒体和休闲股是跌幅最大的股票之一。瑞银将目标价从360便士下调至280便士，并在第三季度业绩疲软后维持“卖出”评级，WPP延续亏损，下跌近5%。Auto Trader股价下跌3.5%，因其表示Catherine Faiers将辞去首席运营官一职。酒店运营商Whitbread和洲际酒店紧随其后，均下跌2.3%。该指数本周上涨0.7%，10月份上涨3.9%。

The FTSE 100 closed about 0.4% down at 9,717 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high and ending a nine-day winning streak. Traders weighed a busy week of corporate earnings, economic data and central bank decisions. The one-year truce between the US and China on technology and trade also remained in the background. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to next week’s Bank of England meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, though expectations of a rate cut are rising. On the business front, media and leisure stocks were among the top losers. WPP extended its losses, falling nearly 5%, after UBS cut its price target to 280p from 360p and maintained a ‘sell’ rating following weak Q3 results. Auto Trader slumped 3.5% as it said Catherine Faiers was stepping down as chief operating officer. Hotel operators Whitbread and InterContinental Hotels followed, each down 2.3%. The index rose 0.7% for the week and 3.9% for the month of October.

瑞士10年期政府债券收益率在10月底触及0.12%，为2022年3月以来的最低水平，此前瑞士国家银行发表了鸽派言论，美联储发出了谨慎信号。瑞士国家银行官员Tschudin周四重申，央行的货币政策仍然是扩张性的，通胀预计将保持在价格稳定范围内。她还指出，瑞士央行准备在必要时干预货币市场，并在条件允许的情况下考虑重新引入负利率。尽管利率处于2022年以来的最低水平，但几个月来通货膨胀率一直低于瑞士央行0-2%目标的下限。在美国，美联储主席鲍威尔强调，在12月的会议上进一步降息“远非板上钉钉”。同样，将在2026年对利率决定进行投票的达拉斯联邦储备委员会主席洛根表示，目前的经济前景并不要求降息。

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield touched 0.12% at the end of October, its lowest level since March 2022, following dovish comments from the Swiss National Bank and cautious signals from the US Fed. SNB official Tschudin reiterated on Thursday that the central bank’s monetary policy remains expansive and that inflation is expected to stay within the price-stability range. She also noted that the SNB is ready to intervene in the currency market if needed and would consider reintroducing negative interest rates should conditions warrant. Despite interest rates being at their lowest since 2022, inflation has remained below the lower bound of the SNB’s 0–2% target for several months. In the US, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that a further rate cut at the December meeting is “far from a foregone conclusion.” Similarly, Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan, who will vote on rate decisions in 2026, said the current economic outlook does not call for cutting rates.