纽币/美元 (NZDUSD) 加自选

周四，随着投资者消化美联储的最新政策决定，美国股指期货上涨。美联储周三公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，同时暗示今年将再降息两次，但2026年只降息一次，这与市场对明年降息两三次的押注形成了鲜明对比。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）语气谨慎，称此举为“风险管理”。交易员现在转向即将公布的通胀和劳动力市场数据，以寻找未来政策路径的线索。在企业新闻方面，Cracker Barrel在第四季度收益低于预期后，在盘后交易中下跌了9%以上。周三交易时段，道琼斯指数上涨0.57%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.33%。就行业而言，金融、消费必需品和材料表现优异，而科技、工业和非必需消费品则落后。

US stock futures advanced on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The Fed delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, while signaling two more reductions this year but only one in 2026, countering market bets on two or three cuts next year. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, framing the move as “risk management.” Traders now turn to upcoming inflation and labor market data for clues on the future policy path. In corporate news, Cracker Barrel tumbled more than 9% in after-hours trade following weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings. During Wednesday’s session, the Dow gained 0.57%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.33%. Sector-wise, financials, consumer staples and materials outperformed, whereas technology, industrials and consumer discretionary lagged.

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度同比收缩0.6%，延续了上一季度0.6%的下降趋势，打破了持平增长的预期。经济衰退的原因是商品生产行业下降4.7%（第一季度为-2.8%），建筑业（-7.6%对-8%）和制造业（-3.2%对+2%）大幅下降。相比之下，服务业增长0.5%，高于第一季度的0.1%，而第一产业小幅增长0.1%，低于此前的0.5%。按季度计算，GDP下降0.9%，扭转了第一季度0.9%的增长。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, extending the 0.6% decline seen in the previous quarter and defying expectations of flat growth. The downturn was driven by a 4.7% drop in goods-producing industries (vs. -2.8% in Q1), with sharp declines in construction (-7.6% vs. -8%) and manufacturing (-3.2% vs. +2%). In contrast, service industries grew 0.5%, up from a 0.1% rise in Q1, while the primary sector inched up 0.1%, slowing from 0.5% growth previously. On a quarterly basis, GDP fell 0.9%, reversing a 0.9% expansion in the first quarter.

香港央行跟随美联储举措下调利率。香港金融管理局周四将通过隔夜贴现窗口收取的基准利率下调25个基点，至4.50%，追随美国联邦储备委员会的举措。

Hong Kong central bank cuts interest rate, tracking Fed move.The Hong Kong Monetary Authority on Thursday cut its base interest rate charged via the overnight discount window by 25 basis points to 4.50%, tracking a move by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度环比收缩0.9%，扭转了上一季度向上修正的0.8%的增长，超过了市场预期的0.2%的下降。这场经济衰退结束了连续两个季度的经济增长，此前经济连续收缩。按行业划分，初级产出下降了0.3%（第一季度为+0.5%），而商品生产行业下降了（第二季度为-3.5%对+2.4%），其中采矿业（-4.1%对+1%）和制造业（-2.4%对+0.1%）大幅下降。服务业总体持平，运输、邮政和仓储（-0.6%对+0.6%）、医疗保健和社会援助（-0.7%对+1.7%）以及金融和保险服务（-0.5%对-0.5%）显著下降。相比之下，批发贸易（+1.4%对-0.4%）、信息媒体和电信（+1.8%对-0.8%）以及租赁、雇佣和房地产服务（+0.7%对+0.3%）均有所上涨。按年度计算，第二季度GDP收缩0.6%，与第一季度的下降速度相匹配。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% decline. This downturn ended two straight quarters of growth that followed back-to-back contractions. By industry, primary output fell 0.3% (vs. +0.5% in Q1), while goods-producing industries dropped (-3.5% vs. +2.4% in Q1), led by steep declines in mining (-4.1% vs. +1%) and manufacturing (-2.4% vs. +0.1%). The services sector was broadly flat, with notable declines in transport, postal and warehousing (-0.6% vs. +0.6%), healthcare and social assistance (-0.7% vs. +1.7%), and financial and insurance services (-0.5% vs. -0.5%). In contrast, wholesale trade (+1.4% vs. -0.4%), information media and telecommunications (+1.8% vs. -0.8%), and rental, hiring and real estate services (+0.7% vs. +0.3%) posted gains. On an annual basis, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q2, matching the pace of decline in the first quarter.