纽币/美元 (NZDUSD) 加自选

2025年6月，美国NFIB小企业乐观指数为98.6，5月份低于98.8，预测为98.7，但略高于51年平均水平98。报告库存过剩的受访者大幅增加是该指数下降的主要原因。19%的小企业主表示税收是他们最重要的问题，比5月份上升了一个百分点，再次成为首要问题。上一次税收达到19%是在2021年7月。此外，许多其他人仍然担心劳动力质量和高昂的劳动力成本。预期商业环境改善的所有者净百分比下降了3个百分点，至22%。预计实际销售量增加的业主净百分比下降了3个百分点，至7%，21%的业主计划在未来6个月进行资本支出，比5月份下降了1个百分点。与此同时，不确定性指数下降了5个百分点，降至89。

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US came in at 98.6 in June 2025, below 98.8 in May and forecasts of 98.7, but holding slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A substantial increase in respondents reporting excess inventories contributed the most to the decline in the index. 19% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up one point from May and ranking as the top problem again. The last time taxes reached 19 percent was in July 2021. In addition, many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell three points to 22%. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell three points to 7% and 21% plan capital outlays in the next six months, down one point from May. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index decreased by five points to 89.

美元抛售创多年新低！。由于对另一场关税战的新担忧，金价从3300美元区域反弹。随着日本成为下一个关税上调的国家，我们会看到黄金价格再次飙升吗？

Fresh Dollar Sell-Off Hitting Multi-Year Lows!.Gold bounced away from the $3300 area with fresh concerns over another tariff war. With Japan the next in line to have tariffs increased, will we see another surge on the yellow metal?

新西兰基准标准普尔/新西兰元50指数周二上涨0.7%，收于12859点，此前一天表现疲软，受美国延长关税最后期限后对潜在贸易协议的乐观情绪支撑。唐纳德·特朗普总统发出了几封计划中的关税警告信中的第一封，建议税率在25%至40%之间，但表示灵活性，称8月1日的最后期限“不是100%确定的”，并为进一步谈判留出了空间。在国内方面，市场现在关注的是周三的利率决定，预计美联储将自去年8月开始降息以来首次暂停加息。整个交易所，医疗保健和公用事业股领涨，包括斐雪派克（+2.6%）、Meridian Energy（+3.1%）和Mercury NZ（+1.8%）。下跌方面，A2 Milk（-3.9%）、Mainfreight（-2.2%）和Chorus（-1.1%）收跌。

New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX 50 rose 0.7% to close at 12,859 on Tuesday, following a a subdued session the day before, supported by optimism over potential trade deals following the US extension of the tariff deadline. President Donald Trump sent the first of several planned tariff warning letters, proposing rates between 25% and 40%, but signaled flexibility by calling the August 1 deadline “not 100% firm” and leaving room for further talks. On the domestic front, markets are now focused on Wednesday’s interest rate decision, where the Reserve Bank is expected to pause for the first time since it began cutting rates last August. Across the bourse, gains were led by healthcare and utilities stocks, including Fisher & Paykel (+2.6%), Meridian Energy (+3.1%), and Mercury NZ (+1.8%). On the downside, A2 Milk (-3.9%), Mainfreight (-2.2%), and Chorus (-1.1%) ended lower.

周二，美国10年期国债收益率稳定在4.38%左右，保持两周高点，因为投资者权衡了最新的贸易发展和经济数据。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布了14个尚未与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家的最新关税税率，其中包括日本和韩国等主要出口国，这两个国家都将面临25%的关税。他还签署了一项行政命令，将互惠关税的最后期限从7月9日延长至8月1日，以便有更多时间进行谈判。此外，在金砖国家在巴西举行峰会之际，特朗普威胁要对与“金砖国家反美政策”一致的国家额外征收10%的关税。与此同时，美国6月就业报告强于预期，抑制了近期降息的预期，国债收益率在最近几个交易日攀升。市场在很大程度上已经消化了美联储7月份降息的可能性。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held steady around 4.38% on Tuesday, maintaining a two-week high as investors weighed the latest trade developments and economic data. President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates on 14 countries that have yet to reach trade agreements with Washington, including major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, both of which will face 25% levies. He also signed an executive order extending the reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1 from July 9, allowing more time for negotiations. Moreover, Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” as the bloc held a summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have climbed in recent sessions after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report for June dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Markets have largely priced out the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July.