瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

南非10年期政府债券收益率降至9.10%以下，为1月29日以来的新低，因为投资者仍被国内债券所吸引，在美国货币宽松政策下寻求更高的实际收益率。即使通货膨胀率接近新加坡储备银行3%-6%目标区间的下限，在可信的货币政策、更稳定的货币和一些结构性改善（包括更可靠的电力和增加的基础设施投资）的支持下，实际收益率仍然是新兴市场中最高的。与此同时，南非储备银行于9月19日将回购利率维持在7%，暂停其宽松周期，以评估之前在不确定性和通胀压力下的削减。新加坡储备银行明确承诺将通胀目标定在3%-6%区间的下限，而不是之前的4.5%中点，这标志着货币政策的重大转变，对长期利率和经济规划具有广泛影响。投资者现在等待财政部的正式背书。

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield eased to below 9.10%, a new low since January 29, as investors remained attracted to domestic bonds, seeking higher real yields amid US monetary easing. Even with inflation near the lower end of the SARB's 3%-6% target range, real yields remain among the highest in emerging markets, backed by credible monetary policy, a more stable currency, and some structural improvements, including more reliable electricity and increased infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank held its repo rate at 7% on September 19, pausing its easing cycle to assess prior cuts amid uncertainty and inflationary pressures. The SARB explicitly committed to targeting inflation at the lower end of its 3%-6% range, rather than the prior 4.5% midpoint, marking a major shift in monetary policy with broad implications for long-term interest rates and economic planning. Investors now wait for formal endorsement from the National Treasury.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率跌至近0.20%，为6月初以来的最低水平，因为投资者继续权衡特朗普总统的经济政策对全球经济和美联储政策的影响，以及欧洲的财政挑战。注意力集中在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在上周谨慎降息后即将发表的讲话，以及瑞士国家银行（SNB）的货币政策决定上。人们普遍预计，瑞士央行在去年3月至今年6月连续六次降息后，将于9月25日将利率维持在零。持续的低通胀和不愿回到负利率的态度支持了加息，尽管美国39%的高额贸易关税放大了持续经济不确定性带来的增长风险。与此同时，瑞士官员继续谈判，希望改善贸易条件，因为关税已经严重影响了该国的出口。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond fell to near 0.20%, its lowest level since early June, as investors continued to weigh the impact of President Trump’s economic policies on the global economy and Fed policy, alongside Europe’s fiscal challenges. Attention focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech following last week’s cautious rate cut, as well as the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy decision. The SNB is widely expected to keep interest rates at zero on September 25, after six consecutive cuts between March last year and June this year. Persistent low inflation and reluctance to return to negative rates support a hold, even as growth risks from ongoing economic uncertainties are amplified by steep 39% US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, Swiss officials continue negotiations in hopes of improving trade conditions, as tariffs have already severely impacted the country's exports.

南非综合领先商业周期指标在2025年7月环比上涨0.9%，这是继6月上调0.5%后连续第二次上涨。在以美元计价的出口商品价格上涨和乘用车销售增长强劲的带动下，十个可用组件中有七个做出了积极贡献。额外的支持来自制造业订单、招聘广告、建筑计划批准、制造业平均工作时间和贸易伙伴领先指标的改善。与此同时，主要的负面影响来自实际M1货币供应增长放缓、息差收窄和商业信心减弱。与此同时，综合重合指标在6月份增长了0.3%，这得益于批发、零售和汽车贸易销售的增长，以及工业生产的强劲增长。滞后指标同月下降0.5%。

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July 2025, marking the second consecutive increase after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in June. Seven of the ten available components contributed positively, led by higher US dollar–denominated export commodity prices and stronger growth in passenger vehicle sales. Additional support came from improvements in manufacturing orders, job advertisements, building plan approvals, average hours worked in manufacturing, and trading-partner leading indicators. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a slowdown in real M1 money supply growth, a narrower interest rate spread, and weaker business confidence. At the same time, the composite coincident indicator increased by 0.3% in June, supported by gains in wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, alongside stronger industrial production. The lagging indicator declined by 0.5% in the same month.

2025年第二季度，瑞士的经常账户盈余从去年同期的249亿瑞士法郎大幅收窄至102亿瑞士法郎。这是自2024年第三季度以来最小的经常账户盈余，主要原因是商品账户盈余从326亿瑞士法郎降至192亿瑞士法郎。与此同时，初级收入赤字从39亿瑞士法郎扩大到49亿瑞士法郎，而次级收入赤字从一年前的7亿瑞士法郎急剧上升到26亿瑞士法郎。与此同时，服务短缺从31亿瑞士法郎缩小到15亿瑞士法郎。

Switzerland’s current account surplus narrowed sharply to CHF 10.2 billion in the second quarter of 2025 from CHF 24.9 billion in the same period of the previous year. This marked the smallest current account surplus since the third quarter of 2024, driven largely by the decrease in goods account surplus to CHF 19.2 billion from CHF 32.6 billion. At the same time, the primary income deficit widened to CHF 4.9 billion from CHF 3.9 billion, while the secondary income deficit rose sharply to CHF 2.6 billion from CHF 0.7 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile, the services shortfall narrowed to CHF 1.5 billion from CHF 3.1 billion.