英镑/南非兰特 (GBPZAR) 加自选

英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.39%，随后小幅回升至4.40%以上，接近2024年12月以来的最低水平。投资者在等待英格兰银行周四公布政策时，权衡了财政部长雷切尔·里夫斯的预算前言论。在11月预算案前三周的一次罕见演讲中，里夫斯警告说，政府面临着维持公共支出和削减国债的“艰难选择”，暗示可能会广泛增税。她还重申了对财政纪律的承诺，尽管高利率和多年的投资不足继续给公共财政带来压力。与此同时，对货币宽松的预期发生了显著变化。虽然市场此前预计春季之前不会加息，但在通胀放缓和经济增长缓慢的迹象下，他们现在认为本周降息的可能性大致相等。

The UK 10-year gilt yield dipped to 4.39% before edging back above 4.40%, staying close to its lowest level since December 2024. Investors weighed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ pre-budget remarks while awaiting the Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday. In a rare speech just three weeks before the November budget, Reeves cautioned that the government faces “hard choices” to sustain public spending and cut national debt, hinting at potential broad-based tax increases. She also reaffirmed her commitment to fiscal discipline, even as elevated interest rates and years of underinvestment continue to pressure public finances. Meanwhile, expectations for monetary easing have shifted notably. While markets previously anticipated no rate change until spring, they now see roughly even odds of a rate cut this week amid signs of moderating inflation and sluggish growth.

周二，富时100指数下跌超过0.5%，这是其连续第三次下跌，主要成分和矿业股下跌。劳斯莱斯、壳牌和汇丰银行等权重股下跌1%至1.5%，而矿业公司力拓、安托法加斯塔和英美资源集团分别下跌约1.5%、3%和2.5%。尽管英国石油公司公布了强于预期的第三季度利润22亿美元，并宣布了7.5亿美元的股票回购，但该公司仍小幅下跌0.3%。该公司表示，在以15亿美元的价格出售美国页岩油股权后，今年的撤资收益将超过40亿美元，削减成本的努力正在按计划进行。在政策方面，财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯发表演讲，概述了英国在11月底预算之前的财政挑战，暗示了潜在的增税。她将经济疲软归咎于之前的管理不善和全球逆风，但重申了她的“铁腕”财政规则，并专注于遏制通货膨胀，以便在控制债务的同时实现未来的降息。

The FTSE 100 fell over 0.5% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline, weighed down by losses in major constituents and mining stocks. Heavyweights like Rolls-Royce, Shell, and HSBC slipped between 1% and 1.5%, while miners Rio Tinto, Antofagasta, and Anglo American dropped about 1.5%, 3%, and 2.5%, respectively. BP edged down 0.3% despite posting stronger-than-expected Q3 profits of $2.2 billion and announcing a $750 million share buyback. The company said divestment proceeds will exceed $4 billion this year, with cost-cutting efforts on track, following the sale of US shale stakes for $1.5 billion. On the policy front, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a speech outlining the UK’s fiscal challenges ahead of the late-November budget, signaling potential tax hikes. She blamed prior mismanagement and global headwinds for the weak economy but reaffirmed her “iron-clad” fiscal rules and focus on curbing inflation to enable future rate cuts while controlling debt.

英镑跌至1.310美元，为4月以来的最低水平，此前英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯发表讲话，暗示即将加息，而投资者正在等待周四的英格兰银行会议。市场现在认为，本周降息25个基点的可能性接近50/50，高于通胀疲软和其他疲软经济数据后的接近零的可能性。里夫斯准备在11月26日公布她的预算，她说英国经历了“多年的经济管理不善”，并强调财政纪律将是她的计划的核心。她承诺对财政规则做出“铁证如山”的承诺，这一信息旨在在人们对财政缺口规模的担忧中安抚投资者。她的言论增强了人们对紧缩财政政策的预期，尽管货币政策可能很快就会放松，在英国央行备受关注的利率决定之前，英镑将进一步承压。

The British pound fell toward $1.310, its weakest level since April, after Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech signaling upcoming tax hikes, while investors awaited Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Markets now see about a near-50/50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, up from near zero after softer inflation and other weak economic data. Reeves, preparing to unveil her budget on November 26, said the UK has endured “years of economic mismanagement” and stressed that fiscal discipline would be central to her plan. She pledged an “iron-clad” commitment to fiscal rules, a message aimed at reassuring investors amid concerns about the size of the fiscal gap. Her comments reinforced expectations of tighter fiscal policy, even as monetary policy may soon ease, weighing further on the pound ahead of the BoE’s closely watched rate decision.

在伦敦，富时100指数下跌了70点。安托法加斯塔（-2.81%）、英美资源集团（-2.57%）和施罗德（-2.18%）领跌。涨幅最大的是Barratt Redrow（1.21%）、Segro（1.09%）和Convatec Group（0.92%）。

In London, the FTSE 100 Index is falling 70 points. Losses were driven by Antofagasta (-2.81%), Anglo American (-2.57%) and Schroders (-2.18%). Biggest rises came from Barratt Redrow (1.21%), Segro (1.09%) and Convatec Group (0.92%).