英镑/南非兰特 (GBPZAR) 加自选

富时100指数周三小幅上涨，结束了周二下跌0.9%后连续三天的下跌。Marks&Spencer领涨，涨幅超过4%，数据显示，截至9月6日的12周内，食品销售额增长8.5%，超出预期，其秋季时尚系列也受到好评。森特理克公司股价上涨超过3.5%，此前摩根士丹利将其股票评级上调至增持，并将其列为英国公用事业公司的首选，这要归功于Sizewell C和Grain液化天然气终端等项目的资本部署。Barratt Redrow上涨2.5%，调整后的利润超过预期，尽管该房屋建筑商指出了与预算相关的不确定性。不利的一面是，阿斯利康的哮喘药物法森拉在第二次慢性阻塞性肺病试验中失败后下跌了0.7%。在宏观方面，英国8月份CPI保持在3.8%的同比水平，与7月份的18个月高点和预测相符。随着就业数据的稳定，这使得英国央行的利率预期几乎没有变化，到年底只有8个基点的降息。投资者现在等待美联储今天晚些时候预期的25个基点的降息。

The FTSE 100 inched higher on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak after Tuesday’s 0.9% fall. Marks & Spencer led gains, jumping over 4% as data showed food sales up 8.5% in the 12 weeks to September 6, ahead of expectations, with its autumn fashion range also well received. Centrica rose more than 3.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, naming it its top UK utility pick thanks to capital deployment in projects like Sizewell C and the Grain LNG terminal. Barratt Redrow gained 2.5% as adjusted profits topped forecasts, though the housebuilder flagged budget-related uncertainties. On the downside, AstraZeneca slipped 0.7% after its asthma drug Fasenra failed a second COPD trial. On the macro front, UK CPI held at 3.8% y/y in August, matching July’s 18-month high and forecasts. Along with steady jobs data, this left BoE rate expectations little changed, with just 8 bps of cuts priced by year-end. Investors now await the Fed’s expected 25 bp cut later today.

尽管美元疲软，但受贵金属价格疲软的压力，南非兰特从最近十个月的高点17.3跌至17.4美元。投资者正在关注本周的央行决策，包括美联储和南非储备银行。预计美联储今天将以降息25个基点开始其宽松周期，并可能进一步降息。在南非，8月份的通货膨胀率低于预期，为3.3%，低于7月份的3.5%，在储备银行3%-6%的目标范围内。尽管这提高了人们对9月18日可能降息的预期，但货币政策委员会可能仍然不愿意采取行动，因为通货膨胀率将在年底前上升，其新的3%目标即将实现。

The South African rand drifted toward 17.4 per USD from recent ten-month highs of 17.3, pressured by softer precious metal prices despite a subdued dollar. Investors are watching central bank decisions this week, including the US Federal Reserve and the South African Reserve Bank. The Fed is expected to kick off its easing cycle today with a 25-basis-point rate cut, with more cuts likely. In South Africa, August inflation came in lower than expected at 3.3%, down from 3.5% in July, within the Reserve Bank’s 3%–6% target range. While this has raised expectations of a potential rate cut on September 18, the MPC may remain reluctant to act, with inflation set to rise toward year-end and its new 3% target in sight.

2025年7月，南非零售额同比增长5.6%，为三个月来最快增长，增速高于6月份的1.7%。这一增长主要是由纺织品、服装、鞋类和皮革制品零售商推动的（+10.0%）；一般经销商（+3.3%）；所有“其他”零售商（+11.9%）；以及五金、油漆和玻璃零售商（+13.2%）。7月份零售额环比增长2.1%，为2023年12月以来的最大增幅，此前一个月修正后下降了0.1%。与截至2024年7月的三个月相比，截至2025年7月，零售贸易销售额增长了3.8%。

South Africa's retail sales climbed by 5.6% year-on-year in July 2025, the fastest increase in three months, accelerating from a 1.7% advance in June. The rise was largely driven by textiles, clothing, footwear, and leather goods retailers (+10.0%); general dealers (+3.3%); all ‘other’ retailers (+11.9%); and hardware, paint, and glass retailers (+13.2%). On a monthly basis, retail sales rose by 2.1% in July, marking the strongest increase since December 2023, following a revised 0.1% decline in the prior month. Retail trade sales increased by 3.8% in the three months ended July 2025 compared with the three months ended July 2024.

英国通胀率保持在3.8%不变，英镑大幅下跌。今天的通胀报告严肃地提醒人们，英国的通胀仍然根深蒂固。8月份CPI保持不变，同比增长3.8%，与普遍预期相符，为2024年1月以来的最高水平。

UK Inflation Unchanged at 3.8%, Pound Shrugs.Today's inflation report was a dour reminder that UK inflation remains entrenched. CPI for August was unchanged at 3.8% y/y, matching the consensus and its highest level since January 2024.