瑞郎/港币 (CHFHKD) 加自选

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率升至近0.30%，为6月9日以来的最高水平，投资者已将通胀风险和地缘政治不稳定因素纳入考虑。中东紧张局势加剧，以色列和伊朗之间持续的空袭推高了油价，加剧了对通货膨胀的担忧。特朗普总统提前离开七国集团峰会后，投资者的焦虑情绪加剧，各国领导人正在讨论加沙、乌克兰和贸易问题。他呼吁撤离德黑兰并迅速返回华盛顿，这引发了人们对局势进一步升级的担忧。在此背景下，在关键的央行会议之前，尤其是美联储会议之前，人们普遍持谨慎态度。在当地，人们普遍预计瑞士国家银行将在6月19日的会议上降息至少25个基点，鉴于法郎走强和价格压力减弱，负利率仍有可能。此外，由于全球持续存在不确定性，瑞士对2025年和2026年的增长预测被下调。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose to near 0.30%, its highest level since June 9, as investors priced in inflation risks and geopolitical instability. Tensions in the Middle East intensified, with ongoing airstrikes between Israel and Iran pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. Investor anxiety grew after President Trump left the G7 summit early, where leaders were discussing Gaza, Ukraine, and trade issues. His call to evacuate Tehran and swift return to Washington sparked fears of further escalation. Against this backdrop, caution prevails ahead of key central bank meetings, especially the Federal Reserve. Locally, the Swiss National Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its June 19 meeting, with negative rates still possible given the strength of the franc and subdued price pressures. Moreover, Switzerland’s growth projections for 2025 and 2026 were lowered amid persistent global uncertainties.

在截至2025年5月的三个月内，香港经季节性调整的失业率从上一时期的3.4%小幅上升至3.5%，达到2022年12月以来的最高水平。这一增长是由于外部不确定性和消费模式变化导致的行业持续调整。失业人数增加6400人，达到135800人，而总就业人数下降12400人，达到366万人。大多数主要行业的失业率都有所上升，建筑、零售和房地产的失业率上升幅度更大。5月份青年失业率（20-29岁）保持不变，为6.5%。与此同时，劳动力参与率从56.8%小幅降至56.7%。展望未来，应届毕业生和离校生的到来可能会给就业市场带来进一步的压力。

Hong Kong’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched up to 3.5% in the three months ending May 2025, from 3.4% in the previous period, hitting its highest level since December 2022. The increase was driven by continued industry adjustments amid external uncertainties and changing consumption patterns. The number of unemployed people rose by 6,400 to 135,800, while total employment dropped by 12,400 to 3.66 million. Unemployment increased across most major sectors, with sharper rises in construction, retail, and real estate. The youth unemployment rate (ages 20–29) remained unchanged at 6.5% in May. Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate edged down to 56.7% from 56.8%. Looking ahead, the arrival of fresh graduates and school leavers could put further pressure on the job market.

恒生指数周二下跌81点，跌幅0.3%，收于23980点，大盘下跌，前一交易日有所回落。特朗普总统突然退出加拿大七国集团峰会后，美国股市期货暴跌，而以色列-伊朗紧张局势已持续到第五天，市场情绪减弱。在美联储将于周三作出利率决定的为期两天的政策会议开始之前，投资者也变得谨慎。尽管预计美联储将连续第四次保持利率稳定，但地缘政治风险和油价上涨可能会抑制短期宽松的希望。金融股领跌，此前中国5月份的人民币新增贷款远低于普遍预期，尽管从4月份的近20年低点略有反弹。平安和汇丰银行各下跌0.7%，恒生银行下跌0.4%。由于关税压力，5月份中国经济活动数据喜忧参半，消费者、科技和房地产股也下跌。周大福因计划通过可转换债券筹集10亿美元而暴跌7.3%。

The Hang Seng lost 81 points or 0.3% to close at 23,980 on Tuesday amid broad sector losses, swinging from gains in the prior session. Sentiment weakened as U.S. stock futures tumbled after President Trump’s abrupt exit from the G7 Summit in Canada, while Israel-Iran tensions extended into a fifth day. Investors also turned cautious ahead of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting starting today, with a rate decision due Wednesday. While the board is expected to hold rates steady for a fourth straight time, geopolitical risks and rising oil prices could dampen hopes for near-term easing. Financial stocks led losses after China’s May new yuan loans came in well below consensus despite a slight rebound from April’s near two-decade low. Ping An and HSBC each fell 0.7% while Hang Seng Bank dipped 0.4%. Consumer, tech, and property stocks also dropped amid mixed activity data in China for May due to tariff pressure. Chow Tai Fook plunged 7.3% on plans to raise USD 1 billion via convertible bonds.

香港股市周二上午下跌59点，跌幅0.2%，至24008点，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，大部分板块下跌。在特朗普总统敦促从德黑兰撤离后，美国期货的大幅下跌打压了市场情绪，随着以色列-伊朗紧张局势进入第五天，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧。在美联储从今天开始为期两天的政策会议之前，人们也普遍持谨慎态度，周三将作出利率决定。尽管预计美联储将连续第四次保持利率稳定，但不断升级的地缘政治风险和油价上涨可能会给近期降息的前景蒙上阴影。在中国，5月份的数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面：零售额创15个月新高，失业率降至6个月低点，但工业产出增长放缓至6个月低位。中国最高立法机构将召开第16次会议的消息限制了损失，这加剧了刺激经济的希望。跌幅较大的包括周大福（-5.7%）、万象城集团（-4.0%）、中芯国际（-1.1%）和波普国际（-1.0%）。

Hong Kong shares fell 59 points or 0.2% to 24,008 on Tuesday morning, reversing gains from the prior session as most sectors dropped. A sharp fall in U.S. futures weighed on sentiment after President Trump urged evacuations from Tehran, stoking fears of broader conflict as Israel-Iran tensions entered a fifth day. Caution also prevailed ahead of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting starting today, with a rate decision due Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady for the fourth straight time, escalating geopolitical risks and rising oil prices could cloud the outlook for near-term cuts. In China, May data painted a mixed picture: retail sales hit a 15-month high, the jobless rate fell to a 6-month low, but industrial output growth slowed to a 6-month low. Losses were limited by news that China’s top legislature will convene its 16th session, fueling stimulus hopes. Notable losers included Chow Tai Fook (-5.7%), Mixue Group (-4.0%), SMIC (-1.1%), and Pop Mart Intl. (-1.0%).