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英国央行本周可能放缓降息周期。英格兰银行周四似乎可能会保持利率不变，自去年开始放松政策以来首次放缓降息步伐，尽管一些分析师现在确实预计，在通胀和工资数据疲软后，利率会下降。

Bank of England likely to slow rate-cut cycle this week.The Bank of England looks likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, slowing its pace of cuts for the first time since it started to loosen policy last year, although some analysts do now expect a reduction after softer inflation and wage data.

英国经济预测：通胀降温，降息迫在眉睫。Pantheon Macroeconomics英国预测：通胀疲软使12月降息成为增长弹性，Pantheon宏观经济学的英国经济学家预计，英国经济第三季度将增长0.2%，理由是企业活动数据和情绪改善。该公司表示：“GDP和零售额的表现好于预期。”。

UK Economic Forecasts: Rate Cut Looms as Inflation Cools.Pantheon Macroeconomics UK Forecast: Softer Inflation Brings December Rate Cut into View Growth Resilient, Inflation Softens UK economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics expect the UK economy to grow 0.2% in Q3, citing firm activity data and improving sentiment. “GDP and retail sales have held up better than feared,” the firm said.

富时100指数周五收于9717点，下跌约0.4%，从周四的历史高点回落，结束了九天的连胜。交易员权衡了繁忙的一周企业盈利、经济数据和央行决策。美国和中国在技术和贸易方面的一年休战也一直处于幕后。与此同时，投资者展望了下周的英格兰银行会议，普遍预计政策制定者将保持利率不变，尽管降息的预期正在上升。在商业方面，媒体和休闲股是跌幅最大的股票之一。瑞银将目标价从360便士下调至280便士，并在第三季度业绩疲软后维持“卖出”评级，WPP延续亏损，下跌近5%。Auto Trader股价下跌3.5%，因其表示Catherine Faiers将辞去首席运营官一职。酒店运营商Whitbread和洲际酒店紧随其后，均下跌2.3%。该指数本周上涨0.7%，10月份上涨3.9%。

The FTSE 100 closed about 0.4% down at 9,717 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high and ending a nine-day winning streak. Traders weighed a busy week of corporate earnings, economic data and central bank decisions. The one-year truce between the US and China on technology and trade also remained in the background. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to next week’s Bank of England meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates on hold, though expectations of a rate cut are rising. On the business front, media and leisure stocks were among the top losers. WPP extended its losses, falling nearly 5%, after UBS cut its price target to 280p from 360p and maintained a ‘sell’ rating following weak Q3 results. Auto Trader slumped 3.5% as it said Catherine Faiers was stepping down as chief operating officer. Hotel operators Whitbread and InterContinental Hotels followed, each down 2.3%. The index rose 0.7% for the week and 3.9% for the month of October.

英格兰银行预测：通胀放缓为更多宽松政策打开大门。我们预计英国央行将于11月5日星期四将银行利率下调至3.75%。这是一个非共识的呼吁，市场也只对削减约30%的价格进行了定价。

Bank of England Preview – Softer Inflation Opens Door for More Easing.We expect the BoE to cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% on Thursday 5 November. This is a non-consensus call, and markets are also pricing only about 30% for a cut.