澳元/港币 (AUDHKD) 加自选

欧元/美元，美元/日元和澳元/美元预测-美元在错过NFP后受到重创。至少可以说，在非农工资公告疲软之后，美元受到了沉重打击。因此，市场正在观察美元是否能够自救，但永远不要忘记，如果情况变得足够糟糕，对美国有利

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Gets Hammered After NFP Miss.The US dollar has been hit hard after the Non-Farm Payroll announcement was anemic to say the least. Because of this, the markets are looking to see whether or not the US dollar can save itself, however – never forget that if things get bad enough, its good for the

周五，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.65美元，结束了连续六天的下跌，因为澳大利亚避免了美国最新的关税上调，大多数进口商品仍受10%的税率限制，而美国糟糕的就业数据削弱了美元。特朗普总统发布了一项行政命令，修改了“互惠”基准关税，而未列入名单的国家将面临10%的自动关税，转运货物将额外征收40%的关税，该命令将在命令发布七天后生效。然而，澳大利亚避免了更高的关税，尽管早些时候威胁要上调至15-20%，但其税率仍保持在10%。白宫引用了贸易和安全谈判的进展，指出澳大利亚是接近与美国达成协议的国家之一。与此同时，与大宗商品挂钩的澳元仍面临铜价暴跌的压力，在美国澄清新关税不包括原铜形式后，铜价暴跌了18%以上。鸽派的澳大利亚储备银行前景也拖累了货币。

The Australian dollar rose to $0.65 per on Friday, halting a six-day losing streak as Australia avoided the latest US tariff hikes, with most imports remaining subject to the 10% rate, while poor US jobs numbers weakened the greenback. President Trump issued an executive order revising “reciprocal” baseline tariffs while countries not listed will face an automatic 10% duty and transshipped goods an additional 40%, taking effect seven days after the order. However, Australia avoided steeper tariffs, with its rate held at 10% despite earlier threats of a hike to 15–20%. The White House cited progress in trade and security talks, noting Australia is among countries nearing deals with the US. Meanwhile, the commodity-linked Aussie remained under pressure from a sharp plunge in copper prices, which sank over 18% after the US clarified raw copper forms were excluded from the new tariffs. A dovish RBA outlook also weighed on the currency.

恒生指数周五下跌265点，跌幅1.1%，收于24508点，连续第四个交易日下跌，触及两周低点。美国对数十个贸易伙伴征收高额关税后，风险情绪减弱，而美国期货在6月通胀数据升温后大幅下跌。预计新关税将增加价格压力，加剧对进一步通胀的担忧。在今天晚些时候公布的美国就业数据公布之前，交易员也变得谨慎。由于担心中国经济增长势头放缓，该指数本周下跌3.5%，为四周来首次下跌。与此同时，美中贸易谈判没有取得任何实质性进展，将关税决定权留给了特朗普总统。新数据显示，香港第二季度GDP同比增长3.1%，为2023年第四季度以来的最快速度，受强劲出口和国内需求的推动，跌幅收窄。值得注意的失败者包括Smoore Hlds。（-5.7%）、普拉达水疗中心（-5.5%）、信达生物制品（-5.3%）和太古地产（-3.1%）。尽管7月份交付量强劲，小鹏仍下跌0.4%。

The Hang Seng dipped 265 points or 1.1% to close at 24,508 on Friday, falling for the fourth session and hitting a two-week low. Risk sentiment weakened after the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on dozens of trading partners, while U.S. futures dropped sharply after hotter June inflation data. The new tariffs are expected to add to price pressures, fueling concerns about further inflation. Traders also turned cautious ahead of U.S. jobs data due later today. For the week, the index sank 3.5%, its first weekly loss in four, amid worries over China’s slowing momentum. Meantime, U.S.-China trade talks ended with no real progress, leaving tariff decisions to President Trump. Losses were capped by new data showing Hong Kong’s GDP grew 3.1% yoy in Q2, the fastest pace since Q4 2023, driven by strong exports and domestic demand. Notable losers included Smoore Hlds. (-5.7%), Prada Spa (-5.5%), Innovent Biologics (-5.3%), and Swire Properties (-3.1%). Xpeng fell 0.4%, despite strong July deliveries.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五下跌0.9%，收于8662点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，本周下跌0.1%，为第二周下跌。在美国总统特朗普宣布对十几个贸易伙伴征收10%至41%的新关税后，风险偏好减弱，引发了广泛的抛售。澳大利亚免除了更高的关税，贸易部长唐·法雷尔证实，美国对澳大利亚的出口保持了10%的基准，这是所有国家中最低的，并指出澳大利亚对美国的持续贸易顺差是谈判的关键因素。然而，澳大利亚也未能幸免于更广泛的避险情绪推动澳交所走低。跌幅最大的是医疗保健类股，生物科技巨头CSL领跌（-2.6%），而金融类股下跌1.1%，四大银行下跌超过1%。科技股也下跌2.3%，反映了华尔街在重新审查收益和经济数据时的下跌。在数据方面，第二季度生产者价格指数上涨0.7%，低于预期，加强了8月份的降息押注。

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.9% to end at 8,662 on Friday, extending the prior session’s losses and falling 0.1% for the week—its second weekly decline. A broad-based sell-off took hold as risk appetite weakened after US President Trump unveiled new tariffs of 10% to 41% on a dozen of trading partners. Australia was spared steeper duties, with Trade Minister Don Farrell confirming the US kept its 10% baseline on Australian exports—the lowest among all nations—citing Australia’s consistent trade surplus with the US as a key factor in negotiations. However, Australia was not immune to the broader risk-off sentiment driving the ASX lower. Among top decliners were healthcare stocks, led by biotech giant CSL (-2.6%), while financials dropped 1.1%, with the Big Four banks down over 1%. Tech stocks also fell 2.3%, mirroring Wall Street losses amid renewed scrutiny of earnings and economic data. On the data front, producer prices rose 0.7% in Q2, below forecasts, reinforcing August rate cut bets.