美元/港币 (USDHKD) 加自选

周二，美元指数约为99.8，接近5月以来的最高水平，因为交易员在政策制定者发出一系列喜忧参半的信号后，重新调整了对美联储12月降息的预期。上周，鲍威尔主席警告称，12月的举措“并非板上钉钉”。芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比表示，他仍然更关心通货膨胀而非就业，而库克州长则指出劳动力市场疲软的风险正在上升。旧金山联储主席戴利敦促官员们“保持开放的心态”，美联储行长米兰强调，政策仍然具有限制性。市场目前预计，下个月降息25个基点的可能性约为70%，低于上周联邦公开市场委员会决定前的约90%，但仍高于本周早些时候的60%。由于政府持续关闭，公共数据发布有限，投资者现在将注意力转向即将发布的ADP就业报告，以获取对劳动力市场状况的新见解。

The dollar index traded around 99.8 on Tuesday, nearing its highest level since May, as traders recalibrated expectations for the Fed's rate cut in December following a series of mixed signals from policymakers. Last week, Chair Powell cautioned that a December move “is not a foregone conclusion.” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he remains more concerned about inflation than employment, while Governor Cook pointed to rising risks of labor-market weakness. San Francisco Fed President Daly urged officials to “keep an open mind,” and Governor Miran emphasized that policy remains restrictive. Markets now price in roughly a 70% chance of a 25bps cut next month, down from about 90% before last week’s FOMC decision but still above the 60% seen earlier this week. With public data releases limited amid the ongoing government shutdown, investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming ADP employment report for fresh insights into labor-market conditions.

2025年10月，美国物流经理指数（LMI）保持不变，为57.4，与9月份的读数相匹配，表明物流业的增长率稳定。库存和仓储指标下降带来的下行压力被运输活动的强劲所抵消。库存水平下降（-5.6至49.5），随后仓储利用率放缓（-8.8至56.5）。另一方面，运输价格（+7.5至61.7）和运输利用率（+7.3至57.3）上涨。与此同时，运输价格的上涨，加上可用运输能力（54.5）的扩张略有下降（-0.7），打破了两个月来货运负反转的趋势。总的来说，随着假日销售的开始，库存似乎有可能下降，缓解了之前仓储的紧张局面，并由于货物流动的增加，导致运输的利用率提高。

The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) in the US remained unchanged at 57.4 in October 2025, matching September’s reading and indicating a steady growth rate in the logistics sector. Downward pressure from declines in inventory and warehousing metrics was offset by strength in transportation activity. Inventory levels declined (-5.6 to 49.5) and there was a subsequent slowdown in warehousing utilization (-8.8 to 56.5). On the other hand, transportation prices (+7.5 to 61.7) and transportation utilization (+7.3 to 57.3) rose. Meanwhile, the upward swing in transportation prices combined with the slight downtick (-0.7) in the expansion of available transportation capacity (54.5) breaks the two-month trend of a negative freight inversion. Taken altogether it seems likely that inventories are dropping as holiday sales begin, easing the prior tightness in warehousing and leading to a greater utilization of transportation due to the increased movement of goods.

周二，美国10年期国债收益率降至4.08%，从周一创下的近四周高点回落，原因是政府借贷预期低于预期，美联储官员发出的信号喜忧参半。美国财政部表示，目前预计第四季度将借款5690亿美元，比2025年7月的预测少210亿美元，主要是因为该时期开始时现金余额较高。此外，在政策制定者发表相互矛盾的言论后，交易员重新调整了对美联储12月降息的预期。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他仍然更担心通货膨胀而不是就业，库克州长强调了劳动力市场进一步疲软的风险，旧金山联储主席戴利敦促官员“保持开放的心态”，米兰州长指出，政策仍然具有限制性。市场现在认为，下个月降息25个基点的可能性约为70%，低于上周联邦公开市场委员会会议前的约90%，但高于本周早些时候的60%。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.08% on Tuesday, retreating from nearly four-week highs reached on Monday, due to lower-than-expected government borrowing estimates and mixed signals from Fed officials. The US Treasury Department said it now expects to borrow $569 billion in Q4, $21 billion less than projected in July 2025, primarily because it began the period with a higher cash balance. Also, traders recalibrate expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, following conflicting remarks from policymakers. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he remains more concerned about inflation than employment, Governor Cook highlighted risks of further labor-market weakness, San Francisco Fed President Daly urged officials to “keep an open mind” and Governor Miran noted that policy remains restrictive. Markets now assign roughly a 70% probability to a 25bps rate cut next month, down from about 90% before last week’s FOMC meeting, but above the 60% seen earlier this week.

周二，美国期货交易大幅下跌，标准普尔500指数下跌1.1%，纳斯达克100指数下跌1.4%，道琼斯期货下跌400多点。周一，由于最近由人工智能驱动的反弹显示出疲劳的迹象，投资者消化了新一批企业收益，股市出现下跌。包括摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）在内的几位华尔街首席执行官在香港的一次峰会上警告称，市场可能会出现重大调整，这加剧了市场的谨慎情绪。与此同时，在美联储官员发表了一系列喜忧参半的评论后，交易员重新调整了他们对12月美联储降息的押注。Palantir Technologies在盘前交易中因估值问题下跌近8%，尽管超过了季度预期并提高了全年收入前景。Vertex Pharmaceuticals在公布喜忧参半的结果后下跌了3.8%。英伟达股价在盘前交易中下跌超过2%，将抹去周一2.2%的涨幅。

US futures traded sharply lower on Tuesday, with contracts on the S&P 500 down 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.4%, and Dow Jones futures slipping more than 400 points. The decline followed a mixed session on Monday, as the recent AI-driven rally showed signs of fatigue and investors digested a fresh batch of corporate earnings. Adding to the cautious mood, several Wall Street chief executives including those from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, warned at a summit in Hong Kong that markets may be due for a significant correction. Meanwhile, traders readjust their Fed rate cut bets for December, following a series of mixed comments from Fed officials. Palantir Technologies tumbled nearly 8% in premarket trading on valuation concerns, despite beating quarterly estimates and raising its full-year revenue outlook. Vertex Pharmaceuticals dropped 3.8% after posting mixed results. Nvidia shares fell more than 2% in premarket trading, set to erase Monday’s 2.2% gain.