活牛 (LiveCattle) 加自选

澳大利亚7月贸易顺差73.1亿（预期49.2亿）。2025年7月澳大利亚贸易数据贸易平衡+73.1亿，打破了预期的49.2亿，此前出口额为53.65亿，增长3.3%，远高于前一个月进口额+2.6%，增长1.3%，这并不令人鼓舞。强劲的经济应该会吸引进口。

Australian July trade balance surplus 7310mn (vs. expected 4920mn).Trade data for Australia in July 2025 Trade Balance +7310mn, smashing expectations expected 4,920mn prior 5,365mn Exports (MoM) +3.3%, well ahed of the previous month prior +2 6% Imports (MoM) -1.3%, which is not encouraging. A strong economy should be sucking in imports.

美国股指期货周四保持坚挺，此前华尔街表现喜忧参半，投资者等待周末8月就业报告，以获得利率政策的新信号。周三，标准普尔500指数上涨0.51%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.02%，道琼斯指数下跌0.05%。科技股领涨，Alphabet上涨9.1%，苹果上涨3.8%，此前谷歌母公司在一宗反垄断案中避免分拆。尽管如此，在职位空缺降至疫情以来罕见的水平后，劳动力市场的担忧依然存在。在备受关注的非农就业数据于周五公布之前，人们的注意力现在转向周四公布的ADP私人就业报告和每周失业救济申请人数。

US stock futures held firm on Thursday following a mixed performance on Wall Street, as investors awaited the August jobs report at week’s end for fresh signals on interest rate policy. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.02%, while the Dow slipped 0.05%. Tech shares led the rally, with Alphabet jumping 9.1% and Apple climbing 3.8% after Google’s parent avoided a breakup in an antitrust case. Still, labor market concerns persisted after job openings fell to levels rarely seen since the pandemic. Attention now turns to the ADP private payrolls report and weekly jobless claims due Thursday, before the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data is released on Friday.

周四早盘，新西兰元50指数下跌55点，跌幅0.4%，至13020点，连续第二次下跌，主要受公用事业、医疗保健和金融业的拖累。交易员在美国关税的不确定性中保持谨慎，同时密切关注相关事态发展。在国内，在经济疲软和高失业率的背景下，人们的注意力集中在预计几周内任命新的新西兰储备银行行长上。然而，几位美联储官员周三的评论表明，劳动力市场的担忧继续支持他们的观点，即降息仍有可能。这种情绪有助于限制下跌，增加了本月晚些时候降息的希望。与此同时，在Alphabet的反弹提振标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数后，美国股指期货几乎没有变化。早期的输家包括Ryman Healthcare（-2.0%）、Fletcher Building（-1.8%）、Skellerup Holdings（-1.4%）、Fisher&Paykel（-0.9%）、Colonial Motor（-0.9%，Hallenstein Glasson）（-0.6%）。

The NZX 50 dropped 55 points, or 0.4%, to 13,020 in morning trade on Thursday, marking its second consecutive decline, mainly weighed down by utilities, healthcare, and financials. Traders remained cautious amid US tariff uncertainty while monitoring related developments. Domestically, attention is on the expected appointment of a new RBNZ Governor within weeks, against the backdrop of a weak economy and high unemployment. However, comments from several Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday suggested that labor market concerns continue to support their view that interest rate cuts are still likely. This sentiment helped limit the decline, raising hopes of a cut later this month. Meanwhile, US stock futures were little changed after Alphabet’s rally boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Among early losers were Ryman Healthcare (-2.0%), Fletcher Building (-1.8%), Skellerup Holdings (-1.4%), Fisher & Paykel (-0.9%), Colonial Motor (-0.9%), and Hallenstein Glasson (-0.6%).

美国原油库存在截至2025年8月29日的一周内增加了62万桶，而前一周下降了97万桶。这一增长令人意外，因为市场曾预计将减少340万桶。

US crude oil inventories rose by 0.62 million barrels in the week ending August 29, 2025, after a 0.97 million-barrel decline the previous week. The increase came as a surprise, as markets had expected a 3.4 million-barrel draw.