现货黄金 (Gold) 加自选

在金价反弹和美元大致稳定的支撑下，南非兰特在最近触及一个多月低点后小幅上涨至17.5美元以下。投资者在评估经济数据时，仍关注利率前景。一项新的采购经理人指数调查显示，南非私营部门10月份出现收缩，这是七个月来的首次下降。在货币政策方面，南非储备银行预计不会在11月的会议上降息，因为政策制定者仍专注于将通胀预期降至3%。7月，央行暗示，其隐含的通胀目标是接近3%-6%目标区间的下限。南非的年通货膨胀率从8月份的3.3%上升到2025年9月的3.4%，但略低于市场预测的3.5%。

The South African rand edged up to trade below 17.5 per USD after recently touching over one-month lows, supported by a rebound in gold prices and a broadly steady dollar. Investors remained focused on the outlook for interest rates, while assessing economic data. A fresh PMI survey showed South Africa's private sector contracted in October, marking the first decline in seven months. On the monetary policy front, the South African Reserve Bank is not anticipated to cut rates at its November meeting, as policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation expectations down to 3%. In July, the central bank signaled that it is implicitly aiming for inflation near the lower bound of its 3%-6% target range. South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, but came slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%.

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从9月的50.2降至2025年10月的48.8，这是自3月以来私营部门活动的首次收缩。产量和新订单以七个月来最快的速度下降，而出口销售额则以近一年来的最快速度下降。尽管就业人数略有上升，但公司以八个月来最快的速度减少了积压的工作。在需求疲软的情况下，投入品采购下降，而供应商的交货时间以创纪录的速度改善，反映出物流更加顺畅，投入品需求降低。成本压力进一步缓和，在兰特走强和工资增长放缓的推动下，购买价格通胀处于五年多来的最低水平。销售价格通胀也有所放缓，部分原因是建筑成本下降。尽管面临这些挑战，商业情绪仍然谨慎乐观，34%的公司预计未来几个月产量将增长，而5%的公司预计产量将下降。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 48.8 in October 2025 from 50.2 in September, marking the first contraction in private sector activity since March. Output and new orders declined at the fastest pace in seven months, while export sales dropped at the sharpest rate in nearly a year. Firms reduced backlogs of work at the quickest pace in eight months, even as employment rose slightly. Input purchases fell amid weaker demand, while suppliers’ delivery times improved at a joint-record pace, reflecting smoother logistics and lower input needs. Cost pressures moderated further, with purchasing price inflation at the softest level in over five years, aided by a stronger rand and subdued wage growth. Selling price inflation also slowed, partly due to falling construction costs. Despite these challenges, business sentiment remained cautiously positive, with 34% of firms expecting output growth in the coming months, compared with 5% anticipating a decline.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三收于8802点，下跌0.1%，延续了前一交易日0.9%的大幅下跌，触及9月下旬以来的最低水平，因为投资者在央行谨慎的政策立场下从大宗商品股转向银行股。矿商领跌，下跌1.1%至一个月低点，受铁矿石价格下跌拖累，Fortescue下跌2.5%，力拓也下跌。此外，黄金矿商连续第三个交易日延续下跌，追随金价隔夜下跌，贝尔维尤黄金下跌3.1%，北方之星下跌0.5%。科技股也下跌2.7%，追随华尔街隔夜的跌幅，因对估值过高的担忧再次出现。与此同时，金融股帮助缓冲了更广泛的下跌，上涨0.6%，因为投资者在估值泡沫、行业表现不佳和澳大利亚储备银行谨慎的前景下寻求高收益银行股的稳定。最大银行联邦银行上涨1.3%，至近三个月高点，而澳大利亚国民银行上涨1.7%。

The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.1% lower at 8,802 on Wednesday, extending the prior session's sharp 0.9% loss to hit its lowest since late September, as investors moved from commodity stocks to banks amid the central bank’s cautious policy stance. Losses were led by miners, which fell 1.1% to a one-month low, dragged by weaker iron ore prices that sent Fortescue down 2.5% and Rio Tinto lower as well. Additionally, gold miners extended declines for a third session, tracking bullion’s overnight drop, with Bellevue Gold sliding 3.1% and Northern Star easing 0.5%. Technology stocks also tumbled 2.7%, tracking Wall Street’s overnight losses amid renewed concerns about stretched valuations. Meanwhile, financials helped cushion the broader decline, rising 0.6% as investors sought stability in high-yielding bank stocks amid frothy valuations, sector underperformance, and the RBA’s cautious outlook. Top lender Commonwealth Bank climbed 1.3% to a near three-month high, while NAB gained 1.7%.

澳元兑美元汇率在0.647美元左右走弱，将最近的跌幅扩大到11周低点，因为全球市场的广泛避险情绪掩盖了澳大利亚储备银行的鹰派政策前景。由于持续的通胀压力，储备银行在11月将利率稳定在3.6%，正如预期的那样。州长布洛克表示，进一步削减的空间有限，市场现在只看到今年放松的可能性很小，一些分析师表示，周期可能已经结束。然而，到目前为止，央行的鹰派立场未能提振货币，交易员们转而关注风险情绪的恶化。在美国科技股大幅下跌和主要银行高管再次发出估值警告后，全球市场变得谨慎，引发了人们对潜在市场调整的担忧。澳元也面临进一步压力，因美联储官员对12月加息的可能性存在分歧，美元走强。

The Australian dollar weakened around $0.647, extending its recent declines to an eleven-week low, as broad risk-off sentiment across global markets overshadowed the RBA’s hawkish policy outlook. The Reserve Bank held interest rates steady at 3.6% as expected in November, citing persistent inflation pressures. Governor Bullock said the scope for further cuts is limited, and markets now see only a small chance of easing this year, with some analysts suggesting the cycle may already be over. However, the central bank’s hawkish stance has so far failed to lift the currency, with traders focused instead on deteriorating risk sentiment. Global markets have turned cautious after sharp losses in US tech stocks and renewed valuation warnings from major bank executives, raising concerns of a potential market correction. The AUD also faced further pressure as the greenback strengthened amid diverging views among Fed officials over the possibility of a rate move in December.