现货黄金 (Gold) 加自选

在美元走强和贵金属价格回落的情况下，南非货币兑美元汇率约为17.4，创下一周多来的最低水平。与此同时，南非储备银行（SARB）如预期的那样将回购利率维持在7%不变，这表明通胀压力仍然是其政策立场的核心。政策制定者指出，尽管8月份通胀率意外降至3.3%，但通胀仍如预期般呈上升趋势。新加坡储备银行预计，今年的整体通胀率平均为3.4%，明年为3.6%，2027年将恢复到3%。储备银行和国家财政部正在讨论将南非的通胀目标降低并缩小到3%左右，将预期锚定在这一水平，而不是之前的4.5%的中点。州长Kganyago表示：“将通胀稳定在3%意味着较低的长期政策利率。”他补充说，货币政策委员会致力于完成改革，并与财政部协调，尽快就新目标达成一致。

The South African traded around 17.4 per USD, hitting the lowest in over a week, amid a strengthening dollar and as precious metals prices retreated. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left its repo rate unchanged at 7%, as anticipated, an indication that inflationary pressures remain central to its policy stance. Policymakers noted that, despite a surprising dip to 3.3% in August, inflation remains on an upward trend as expected. The SARB sees headline inflation averaging 3.4% this year, and 3.6% next year, before reverting to 3% in 2027. The Reserve Bank and National Treasury are discussing lowering and narrowing South Africa’s inflation target to around 3%, anchoring expectations at this level instead of the previous 4.5% midpoint. “Stabilising inflation at 3% implies a lower longer-term policy rate,” Governor Kganyago said, adding that the MPC is committed to finalising the reform and coordinating with the Treasury to agree on a new target as soon as practicable.

正如普遍预期的那样，南非储备银行于2025年9月18日将其关键回购利率维持在7%不变，这表明在全球不确定性中保持谨慎，同时准备采用新的3%通胀目标。该决定并非一致通过，四名成员投票维持利率不变，两名成员赞成降息25个基点。自去年9月以来，利率已下调125个基点，政策制定者表示，他们正在暂停评估对经济的影响、不断变化的预期和通胀风险。他们观察到，总体通胀率最近如预期般上升，预计将在短期内达到峰值，2025年平均为3.4%，2026年平均为3.6%，略高于之前的预测，2027年将回落至3%。与此同时，南非经济上个季度公布了强于预期的GDP增长，促使2025年增长预测从之前的0.9%上调至1.2%，尽管高关税导致出口疲软。

The South African Reserve Bank left its key repo rate unchanged at 7% on September 18, 2025, as widely anticipated, signaling caution amid global uncertainty while preparing to adopt a new 3% inflation target. The decision was not unanimous, with four members voting to keep rates unchanged and two favoring a 25-basis-point cut. Since September last year, rates have been reduced by 125 basis points, and policymakers said they are pausing to assess the impact on the economy, evolving expectations, and inflation risks. They observed that headline inflation has risen recently as expected and is projected to peak in the near term, averaging 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026—slightly higher than the previous forecast—before easing back to 3% in 2027. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economy posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth last quarter, prompting an upward revision of the 2025 growth forecast to 1.2% from a previous estimate of 0.9%, despite weaker exports from higher tariffs.

2025年7月，南非批准的建筑计划价值同比下降4.7%，至90.22亿南非兰特，此前一个月修正后下降了12.5%。这标志着非住宅市场连续第二个月下降，尽管速度较慢（-25.2%对6月份的-48.3%）。另一方面，住宅项目（3.3%对2.5%）和扩建和改建（3.2%对2.1%）的许可证都有所增加。

The value of building plans approved in South Africa fell by 4.7% year-on-year to ZAR 9,022 million in July 2025, following a revised 12.5% slump in the prior month. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, albeit at a slower pace, attributed to the non-residential segment (-25.2% vs -48.3% in June). On the other hand, permits increased for both residential projects (3.3% vs 2.5%) and additions & alterations (3.2% vs 2.1%).

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数下跌0.8%，收于两周低点8755点，受桑托斯因ADNOC牵头的财团撤回收购要约而暴跌后能源股拖累。市场还消化了低于预期的就业报告，该报告显示8月份就业人数减少了5400人，与21500人的增长预测相反，全职工作人数减少了40900人。失业率保持在4.2%，而参与率降至66.8%，表明劳动力市场逐渐疲软。尽管如此，市场认为9月份澳大利亚储备银行降息的可能性只有20%，11月份的可能性为70%，因为高于目标的通胀使政策制定者保持谨慎。在企业新闻方面，能源公司下跌5.9%，为五个多月来最疲软的一天，桑托斯暴跌11.9%，此前阿布扎比ADNOC领导的财团在就估值和条款进行了数月的争论后撤回了187亿美元的出价。由于铜价下跌，权重矿商也下跌了0.4%，而对利率敏感的金融股下跌了0.9%，CBA下跌了2.3%，这是连续第四次下跌。

The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.8% lower at a two-week low of 8,755 on Thursday, dragged by energy stocks after Santos slumped as an ADNOC-led consortium withdrew its takeover bid. Markets also digested a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which showed employment fell by 5,400 in August, defying forecasts for a 21,500 gain, as full-time jobs dropped 40,900. The jobless rate held at 4.2% while participation eased to 66.8%, pointing to a gradually softening labor market. Still, markets see only a 20% chance of an RBA cut in September, with November odds at 70%, as above-target inflation keeps policymakers cautious. In corporate news, energy firms dropped 5.9%, their weakest day in over five months, with Santos plunging 11.9% after Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC-led consortium withdrew its $18.7B bid following months of wrangling over valuation and terms. Heavyweight miners also fell 0.4% on weaker copper prices, while rate-sensitive financials slipped 0.9%, with CBA down 2.3%, its fourth straight decline.