10年期俄罗斯自由贸易区收益率从10月下旬的四个月高点15.2%降至14.6%,原因是税收增加和油价反弹缓解了自由贸易区供应增加的背景。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间,联邦政府支出的增加促使克里姆林宫提高了明年预算的增值税,预计将产生1.2万亿卢布的额外收入。政府收入前景也受到原油价格上涨的支撑,此前欧佩克+成员国表示明年将暂停增产。这些事态发展暂时抵消了俄罗斯不断恶化的财政背景,因为缓慢的增长迫使政府发出信号,表示今年将增加46%的借款。OFZ也受到俄罗斯银行在应对高通胀时的高利率的压力。基准利率为16.5%,由于通胀风险上升,CBR反对今年再次降息。
The yield on the 10-year Russian OFZ fell to 14.6% from the four-month high of 15.2% from late October as higher taxation and a rebound in oil prices softened the backdrop of increasing OFZ supply. The increasing magnitude of federal government spending in Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove the Kremlin to increase VAT for next year's budget, expected to generate RUB 1.2 trillion of additional revenue. The outlook on government revenues were also supported by the upswing in crude oil prices following pause in output hikes signaled by OPEC+ members for next year. The developments momentarily offset the deteriorating fiscal backdrop for Russia, as slow growth forced the government to signal it will grow borrowing by 46% this year. OFZs were also pressured by high interest rates by the Bank of Russia in its fight against high inflation. The benchmark rate stands at 16.5%, and the CBR pushed back against another rate cut this year due to upside inflation risks.