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2025年7月，台湾广义M2货币供应量同比增长3.42%，达到653.77亿新台币，增幅低于上月的3.45%。这一增长主要是由递延所得税支付推动的，这导致财政部的税收收入时间与上一年不同。考虑到今年前七个月，年均增长率为4.16%。

The Broad M2 Money Supply in Taiwan rose by 3.42% year-on-year to TWD 65,377 billion in July 2025, slowing from a 3.45% increase in the previous month. This growth was mainly driven by deferred income tax payments, which caused the timing of tax receipts by the Treasury to differ from that of the previous year. Considering the first seven months of the year, the average annual growth rate was 4.16%.

周五，恒生指数上涨212点，涨幅0.8%，收于25317点，较前一交易日的下跌有所回升，中国内地股市因科技乐观情绪再次高涨而创下十年新高。周四，DeepSeek推出升级版V3 AI模型后，恒生科技指数飙升2.7%，随着北京发展芯片自给自足，该模型得到了国内半导体的支持。在7月份中国经济活动放缓的迹象出现后，消费者股也大幅上涨，寄希望于北京方面出台新的刺激措施。在当地，香港7月份的年度通胀率降至1.0%的4年低点，这是连续第三个月放缓。官员们指出，该市的成本压力保持稳定，预计通胀在短期内将保持温和。涨幅较大的公司包括中芯国际（9.7%）、比亚迪电子（5.9%）、地平线机器人（4.9%）、快手科技（4.3%）和小米公司（2.1%）。本周，该指数上涨0.3%，连续第三周上涨。

The Hang Seng climbed 212 points or 0.8% to close at 25,317 on Friday, rebounding from the prior session’s losses as mainland Chinese markets hit a decade high on renewed tech optimism. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 2.7% after DeepSeek unveiled an upgraded V3 AI model on Thursday, with support from domestic semiconductors as Beijing develops chip self-sufficiency. Consumer shares also rose sharply on hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing after signs of slowing Chinese activity in July. Locally, Hong Kong’s annual inflation eased to a 4-year low of 1.0% in July, the third straight month of slowdown. Officials noted cost pressures in the city remained stable and expected inflation to stay subdued in the near term. Notable gainers included SMIC (9.7%), BYD Electronic (5.9%), Horizon Robotics (4.9%), Kuaishou Tech (4.3%), and Xiaomi Corp. (2.1%). For the week, the index added 0.3%, extending gains for the third successive week.

台湾经季节性调整后的失业率从上月的3.34%小幅下降至2025年7月的3.33%，为2000年11月以来的最低水平。失业人数增加了5000人，达到409000人，而就业人数增加了21000人，达到1163.8万人。追踪20至24岁求职者的青年失业率攀升至11.91%的十个月高点，高于上个月的11.71%。与此同时，7月份劳动力参与率上升至59.51%，为1990年以来的最高水平，而6月份为59.38%。

Taiwan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.33% in July 2025, the lowest since November 2000, from 3.34% in the previous month. The number of unemployed persons increased by 5,000 to 409,000, while employment grew by 21,000 to 11.638 million. The youth unemployment rate—which tracks job seekers aged 20 to 24—climbed to a ten-month high of 11.91%, up from 11.71% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate increased to 59.51% in July, the highest level since 1990, compared to 59.38% in June.

天然气和石油预测：布伦特原油面临70美元的考验，WTI保持上涨，天然气陷入熊市。布伦特原油在看涨势头下预计价格为70美元，而天然气期货面临下行风险，卖方在关键EMA的控制下。

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Brent Eyes $70 Test, WTI Holds Gains, Gas Stuck in Bearish Zone.Brent crude eyes $70 amid bullish momentum, while natural gas futures face downside risks with sellers in control under key EMAs.