德国10年期国债收益率略高于2.7%,投资者权衡了新宣布的美国关税和欧元区新通胀数据的影响。美国的有效关税率已从年初的略高于2%飙升至15%左右,为20世纪30年代以来的最高水平。在8月1日截止日期前最后一刻达成协议后,欧盟现在对其对美国的出口征收15%的关税。与此同时,7月份欧元区消费者通胀率稳定在2.0%,连续第二个月达到欧洲央行的目标,但略高于市场预期的1.9%。核心通胀率保持在2.3%不变。由于未来几个月整体通胀率可能仍高于欧洲央行的预测,进一步降息的可能性似乎越来越小。尽管如此,市场仍认为,到2026年3月,欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性为90%。在美国,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的鹰派立场降低了人们对9月会议降息的预期。
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield hovered slightly above 2.7% as investors weighed the impact of newly announced US tariffs and fresh Eurozone inflation data. The effective US tariff rate has surged to around 15%, up from just over 2% at the start of the year—its highest level since the 1930s. The EU now faces a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, following a last-minute deal reached just before the August 1 deadline. Meanwhile, Eurozone consumer inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month but slightly exceeding market expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.3%. With headline inflation likely to remain above the ECB’s projections in the coming months, further rate cuts appear increasingly unlikely. Still, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by March 2026. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance has dampened expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting.