AXSUSD (AXSUSD) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.4以上，通胀疲软、政策信号更加明确和美元走软消除了抛售压力，并撤回了利差。10月整体CPI降至3.57%，轻松位于央行2%至4%的区间内，而核心通胀率已放缓至4s的低点，降低了短期通胀上行风险。Banxico早些时候将政策利率下调了25个基点，至7.25%，正如预期的那样，但其谨慎的、依赖数据的声明和乔纳森·希思的唯一异议表明，宽松政策将是渐进的，这限制了比索抛售的范围。由于这一举措在很大程度上得到了定价，直接收益率冲击被减弱，主要效果是降低政策不确定性并重新调整风险溢价。与此同时，随着美国融资谈判的进展和政府关门的头条新闻缓解了避险需求，美元从最近的峰值回落。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.4 per US dollar as a mix of softer inflation prints, clearer policy signaling and a weaker US dollar removed selling pressure and drew back carry flows. October headline CPI eased to 3.57%, comfortably inside the central bank’s 2 to 4% band, while core inflation has moderated to the low 4s, lowering near-term upside inflation risk. Banxico earlier cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% as expected, but its cautious, data dependent statement and a lone dissent from Jonathan Heath signalled that easing will be gradual, which limited the scope for a selloff in the peso. Because the move was largely priced in, the direct yield shock was muted and the main effect was to reduce policy uncertainty and recalibrate risk premia. At the same time the US dollar pulled back from recent peaks as progress on US funding talks and shutdown headlines eased safe haven demand.

随着美国基本面退居二线，外汇避风港从日元转移。上周，随着日元和欧元的上涨，全球货币市场的风险偏好减弱，而美元指数的反弹也结束了。世界储备货币本周收盘下跌至99.55点，抹去了本周早些时候的反弹，然后是一些反弹。

FX Haven Shifts Away From Yen, As US Fundamentals Take A Backseat.The global risk appetite waned in the currency market last week as the yen and euro posted gains, while the US Dollar index's rally came to an end. The world's reserve currency closed the week lower at 99.55, erasing the early week's rally and then some.

2025年9月，斯洛文尼亚的工业生产同比下降1.3%，此前一个月修正后下降1.4%，标志着工业活动连续第二个月下滑。所有主要类别的产出均有所下降，即采矿和采石业（-29.1%）、制造业（-0.4%）以及电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应（-2.2%）。9月份工业活动环比增长1.2%。今年迄今为止，工业产出比一年前下降了1.5%。

Industrial production in Slovenia fell by 1.3% year-on-year in September 2025, following a revised 1.4% decrease in the prior month, marking the second consecutive month of downturn in industrial activity. Output declined for all major categories, namely mining & quarrying (-29.1%), manufacturing (-0.4%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-2.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial activity rose by 1.2% in September. Year-to-date, industrial output shrank by 1.5% over a year ago.

天然气价格展望-天然气继续显示购买。周一早些时候，天然气价格飙升，但很快填补了开盘缺口，显示出过度扩张的迹象。我正在等待回调，理想情况下是在买入前回调至3.75美元或4.00美元，因为追逐接近阻力位的价格似乎有风险。

Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Show Buying.Natural gas surged early Monday but quickly filled its opening gap, showing signs of overextension. I'm waiting for a pullback, ideally toward $3.75 or $4.00 before buying, as chasing prices near resistance seems risky.