UMAUSD (UMAUSD) 加自选

周二，美元指数在99.6附近几乎没有变化，本周迄今为止一直横盘整理，因为投资者正在等待结束美国政府创纪录的长期停摆的进展。参议院提出了一项重新开放联邦政府并结束40天停摆的措施，勉强获得了所需的60票。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，该法案最早可能于周三在众议院通过，并送交唐纳德·特朗普总统签署。与此同时，上周的数据显示，美国经济在10月份裁员，而消费者信心在11月初降至3年半低点，支持了美联储近期降息的押注。交易员目前认为，美联储12月降息25个基点的可能性约为64%，而美联储理事Stephen Miran呼吁在通胀下降和失业率上升的情况下进一步降息0.5个基点。

The dollar index was little changed around 99.6 on Tuesday, moving sideways so far this week as investors awaited progress on ending the record-long US government shutdown. The Senate advanced a measure to reopen the federal government and end the 40-day shutdown, narrowly securing the 60 votes needed. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the bill could pass the House as soon as Wednesday and be sent to President Donald Trump to sign. Meanwhile, data last week showed that the US economy shed jobs in October, while consumer sentiment weakened to a 3-½-year low in early November, supporting bets for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Traders currently see about a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut in December, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran has called for a larger half-point reduction amid falling inflation and rising unemployment.

FKLCI指数升至1643.00点，为2024年10月以来的最高点。在过去的4周里，富时马来西亚证券交易所KLCI指数上涨了1.62%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了2.04%。

FKLCI increased to 1643.00 Index Points, the highest since October 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index gained 1.62%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 2.04%.

据路透社报道，美国参议院周日晚些时候提出了一项妥协协议，以恢复联邦资金，美国历史上最长的政府停摆可能会在本周结束。周一，大多数参议员投票批准了结束创纪录的41天停摆的立法，投票仍在进行中。该协议将重新开放自10月1日以来关闭的机构，为受粮食援助中断影响的低收入家庭、数十万无薪联邦工作人员和数千架航班取消的旅客提供救济。该协议将使政府在1月30日之前保持资金，同时每年为其38万亿美元的债务增加约1.8万亿美元。唐纳德·特朗普总统的共和党人在国会两院都占据多数席位，但民主党人利用参议院的60票规则推动延长2400万美国人的医疗保险补贴。该妥协还规定了12月对该措施的投票。

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history could end this week after the Senate advanced a compromise deal late Sunday to restore federal funding, Reuters reported. A majority of senators voted Monday to approve legislation to end the record 41-day shutdown, with voting still underway. The agreement would reopen agencies closed since October 1, bringing relief to low-income families affected by disrupted food aid, hundreds of thousands of unpaid federal workers, and travelers hit by thousands of canceled flights. The deal would keep the government funded through January 30, while adding about USD 1.8 trillion annually to its USD 38 trillion debt. President Donald Trump’s Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, but Democrats used the Senate’s 60-vote rule to push for an extension of health insurance subsidies for 24 million Americans. The compromise also sets up a December vote on that measure.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的季度预期调查显示，企业经理预测2025年第四季度未来两年的通货膨胀率为2.28%，与前三个月持平。与此同时，一年期通胀预期从2.37%微升至2.39%，表明价格压力预计将在短期内得到控制。长期观点喜忧参半，五年期通胀预期从2.26%降至2.22%，而十年期预期从2.15%微升至2.18%。在货币政策方面，受访者现在预计官方现金利率（OCR）到2025年12月底将保持在2.25%，明显低于上一季度预测的3.02%，然后到2026年9月小幅上升至2.31%。这一调整是在新西兰储备银行最近决定于2025年10月8日将OCR下调50个基点至2.50%之后做出的。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.