标准普尔/澳大利亚证券交易所200指数周五下跌0.3%，收于8807点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，主要银行、医疗保健和科技股领跌。尽管如此，该指数仍公布了1.7%的周涨幅，这是三周来的首次上涨，部分原因是澳大利亚储备银行在8月12日降息的可能性很高。投资者还准备迎接财报旺季，包括CBA、西太平洋银行和澳新银行在内的主要公司下周将公布关键业绩，这些公司均下跌近1%，导致金融股下跌。此外，由于特朗普的高额药品关税威胁，医疗保健类股下跌1.8%，影响了CSL（-1.8%）和Telix（-3.1%）等澳大利亚主要出口商。科技股也下跌1.1%，追随华尔街的跌幅，但本周上涨1%，纳斯达克指数创下历史新高。另一方面，在美元走软和中国需求前景改善的情况下，重量级矿商因铜价上涨而上涨，而黄金股上涨2.1%，因为特朗普关税生效后，黄金因避险需求而上涨。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3% to end at 8,807 on Friday, extending losses from the prior session, with major banks, healthcare, and tech stocks leading the decline. Still, the index posted a 1.7% weekly gain, its first rise in three weeks, partly due to a high likelihood of an RBA rate cut on August 12. Investors also braced for peak earnings season with key results due next week from major firms including CBA, Westpac, and ANZ, which all dropped nearly 1%, leading declines in financials. Additionally, healthcare stocks were down 1.8% due to Trump’s steep pharmaceutical tariff threat, affecting major Australian exporters like CSL (-1.8%) and Telix (-3.1%). Tech shares also fell 1.1%, tracking Wall Street losses, but rose 1% for the week as Nasdaq hit a record high. On the flip side, heavyweight miners rose on higher copper prices amid a softer dollar and improved China demand outlook, while gold stocks jumped 2.1% as bullion gained on safe-haven demand after Trump’s tariffs took effect.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.25%，投资者将注意力转移到下周储备银行的政策决定上。人们普遍预计，央行将在上个月罕见地持不同意见选择维持利率后，将现金利率下调25个基点。上个月疲软的通胀报告强化了降息预期，该报告显示，潜在通胀正逐渐向澳大利亚储备银行2.5%的目标迈进，同时疲软的就业数据揭示了异常有弹性的劳动力市场出现压力的初步迹象。在最新的经济新闻中，澳大利亚6月份的商品贸易顺差大幅扩大，超出预期，主要推动出口反弹，而进口下降。虽然这些数据表明澳大利亚对外部门具有一定的弹性，但对货币政策预期的影响很小。与此同时，在美国，由于对经济前景的担忧日益加剧，交易员们正在加大对美联储今年降息的押注。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 4.25% as investors shift their focus to the Reserve Bank's policy decision next week. The central bank is widely expected to cut its cash rate by 25bps, after opting to hold rates last month in rare dissent. Rate-cut expectations have been reinforced by last month’s weak inflation report, which showed that underlying inflation is gradually moving toward the RBA’s 2.5% target, alongside soft jobs data that revealed the first signs of strain in what had been an unusually resilient labor market. In the latest economic news, Australia’s trade surplus in goods widened sharply in June, beating forecasts, driven mainly a rebound in exports while imports declined. While the data signals some resilience in Australia’s external sector, it had little impact on monetary policy expectations. Meanwhile, in the US, traders are ramping up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year, amid mounting concerns about the economic outlook.

周五，澳元保持在0.652美元左右的近期涨幅，并有望实现0.8%的稳健周涨幅，这得益于美国经济疲软和对美联储降息的日益增长的预期，这给美元带来了压力。有报道称，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）是领导央行的主要竞争者，他最早将于9月进一步加强市场对政策转变的押注。在国内，最近的数据显示了强劲的贸易平衡数据，以及好于预期的中国贸易顺差，增加了对中国代理货币的支持。然而，澳元仍面临压力，因为市场完全消化了降息25个基点的预期，以及澳大利亚储备银行在下周会议上大幅降息50个基点的可能性很小。澳大利亚储备银行还将发布最新预测，预计将显示GDP疲软和失业率上升，支持进一步降息的理由。尽管如此，澳大利亚储备银行仍强调谨慎的宽松政策，预计9月利率将保持稳定，11月可能会降息。

The Australian dollar held its recent gains around $0.652 on Friday and was on track for a solid 0.8% weekly advance, buoyed by a weak US economy and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut that pressured the greenback. Reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is a leading contender to head the central bank further strengthened market bets on a policy shift as early as September. Domestically, recent data showed strong trade balance figures, along with a better-than-expected trade surplus in China, adding support for the China-proxy currency. However, the Aussie remained under pressure as markets fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut and slim odds of an outsized 50bps cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at next week’s meeting. The RBA is also set to release updated forecasts, expected to show weaker GDP and higher unemployment, supporting the case for more rate cuts. Still, the RBA emphasized cautious easing, with rates expected steady in September and cuts likely in November.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五微跌0.1%，至8830点以下，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，医疗保健和科技股领跌。美国报复性关税的推出给市场情绪带来了压力，该关税于午夜生效，税率在10%至41%之间。在国内，由于特朗普的药品关税威胁高达250%，这可能会影响CSL等澳大利亚主要出口商，以及最近对半导体征收100%的税，谨慎程度加深。在企业新闻中，澳大利亚证券交易所有限公司（ASX Ltd）因交易错误而遭受3500万美元的打击，该公司仍在接受审查。在医疗保健类股中，生物科技巨头CSL（-0.9%）和Telix（-3.9%）领跌。科技股Wisetech和Xero分别下跌1.2%和0.6%。主要银行在下周财报公布前也出现下滑，而能源股因油价跌至两个月低点而承压。尽管如此，该指数仍有望每周上涨1.9%，这是三周来的首次上涨，因为人们希望澳大利亚储备银行在8月12日降息。

The S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% lower to below 8,830 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, with healthcare and technology stocks leading the decline. Sentiment was pressured by the rollout of US retaliatory tariffs, which took effect at midnight and ranged from 10% to 41%. At home, caution deepened due to Trump’s pharmaceutical tariff threat of up to 250%, which could impact major Australian exporters like CSL, alongside a recent 100% levy on semiconductors. In corporate news, ASX Ltd remained under scrutiny after a $35 million hit linked to an ASIC inquiry over a trading error. Among healthcare stocks, biotech giant CSL (-0.9%) and Telix (-3.9%) led losses. Tech shares Wisetech and Xero fell 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Major banks also slipped ahead of earnings due next week, while energy stocks were pressured as oil prices hit two-month lows. Still, the index is on track for a 1.9% weekly gain — its first rise in three weeks — amid hopes of an RBA rate cut on August 12.