欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元再次上涨势头。美元继续看到买家，因为市场正在做专家们说不会做的事情。外汇市场展示了一个很好的例子，说明你应该注意图表而忽略“传统智慧”。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Gaining Momentum Again.The US dollar continues to see buyers, as the market is doing exactly what the pundits said it wouldn't do. The Forex markets are showing a great example of when you should pay attention to the charts and ignore the “conventional wisdom.

周三，标准普尔/澳交所200指数微跌0.1%，收于8948点，延续了其三个交易日的下跌趋势，科技股领跌。华尔街的微弱领先也拖累了该指数，因为投资者权衡了美国政府长期停摆，并对人工智能驱动的反弹的持久性再次产生怀疑。在国内，最新的住房数据显示，建筑审批再次出现月度下降，表明建筑业持续疲软。在企业方面，科技股领跌，下跌1.2%至一个月低点，Life360下跌4.4%，WiseTech下跌0.4%，追随美国同行下跌。其他值得注意的下跌包括该国最大的非食品企业集团Wesfarmers，其跌幅扩大了2.2%，达到9月3日以来的最低水平。金融集团麦格理也下跌0.6%，此前英国监管机构调查了将其直升机租赁部门出售给住友商事株式会社的计划。与此同时，矿业巨头力拓（0.9%）和莱纳斯稀土（1.5%）限制了亏损。

The S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% lower to close at 8,948 on Wednesday, extending its three-session losing streak, led by declines in tech stocks. A weak lead on Wall Street also dragged the index, as investors weighed the prolonged US government shutdown and renewed doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. Domestically, latest housing data showed another monthly drop in building approvals, signaling ongoing weakness in the construction sector. On the corporate side, tech shares led the losses, down 1.2% to a one-month low, with Life360 falling 4.4% and WiseTech slipping 0.4%, tracking their US peers lower. Other notable decliners include Wesfarmers, the country's biggest non-food conglomerate, extending losses by 2.2% to its lowest since September 3. Financial conglomerate Macquarie also fell 0.6% after Britain’s regulator probed the planned sale of its helicopter leasing unit to Sumitomo Corp. Meanwhile, mining giants Rio Tinto (0.9%) and Lynas Rare Earths (1.5%) capped losses.

周三，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅上涨至4.37%，前一天下跌了约4个基点，因为投资者继续评估储备银行的政策前景。继上周的鹰派展望之后，市场对央行今年再次降息的信心有所下降。现在很大程度上取决于本月晚些时候公布的第三季度消费者价格报告，该报告的高读数可能会破坏11月宽松的任何机会。期货意味着澳大利亚储备银行在11月下调3.65%现金利率的可能性只有35%，在12月下调的可能性为56%。与此同时，最新数据显示，鉴于最近通货膨胀的加剧，澳大利亚10月份的消费者信心降至六个月低点，进一步降息的希望逐渐消退。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to 4.37% on Wednesday, having fallen about 4bps the previous day, as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook. Markets have grown less confident that the central bank will deliver another rate cut this year, following its hawkish outlook last week. Much now depends on the third-quarter consumer price report, due later this month, where a high reading would likely derail any chance of an easing in November. Futures imply only a 35% probability that the RBA will lower its 3.65% cash rate in November, and a 56% chance of a move in December. Meanwhile, latest data showed Australia’s consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in October, as hopes of further interest rate cuts faded, given the recent strength in inflation.

周三，澳元兑美元汇率跌至0.656美元左右，在美元持续走强的情况下延续了前一交易日的跌幅。随着政府停摆进入第二周，美元上涨，增加了避险需求，此前特朗普总统威胁要大规模解雇联邦工作人员，因为解决方案的希望越来越渺茫。在国内，澳元也面临压力，此前住房数据显示建筑审批再次出现月度下降，表明建筑业持续疲软。在政策方面，在上周的鹰派前景之后，投资者减少了对澳大利亚储备银行近期宽松政策的押注。期货现在意味着11月降息的可能性约为35%，12月为56%，这使得即将发布的第三季度CPI报告至关重要。与此同时，金价飙升为澳元提供了一些支撑，因为政府预计黄金将成为澳大利亚第二大最有价值的出口产品，突显了该国作为主要生产国和出口国的作用。

The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.656 on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session amid greenback’s ongoing strength. The US dollar rallied as the government shutdown entered its second week, heightening safe-haven demand, after President Trump threatened mass firings of federal workers amid fading hopes of a resolution. Domestically, the Aussie also faced pressure after housing data showed another monthly drop in building approvals, signaling ongoing weakness in the construction sector. On the policy front, investors have scaled back bets on near-term RBA easing after last week’s hawkish outlook. Futures now imply about a 35% chance of a rate cut in November and 56% in December, making the upcoming third-quarter CPI report pivotal. Meanwhile, the currency found some support from surging gold prices, as the government projects the metal will become Australia’s second-most valuable export, underscoring the nation’s role as a leading producer and exporter.