澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.35%左右，略低于三周高点，追随美国国债在政府关门风险下的下跌，而焦点仍集中在即将到来的澳大利亚储备银行决定上。澳大利亚2024/25财年的预算赤字也低于预期，这缓解了政府借贷的压力，增加了收益率的下行压力。尽管如此，由于投资者本周等待澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定，举措有限，市场普遍预计央行将把利率稳定在3.60%，但预计11月将降息。然而，不同的通胀信号，第二季度显示季度放缓，但8月份的数据显示月度加速，增加了第三季度价格压力加剧的风险，使政策路径不确定。这重申了行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）的谨慎、数据驱动的立场，他一直强调该行对2-3%通胀目标的承诺。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.35%, slightly retreating from a three-week high, tracking declines in US Treasuries amid government shutdown risks, while focus remained on the upcoming RBA decision. Australia also posted a smaller-than-expected FY2024/25 budget deficit, which eased pressure on government borrowing and added downward pressure on yields. Still, moves were limited as investors awaited the RBA policy decision this week, with markets largely expecting the central bank to keep rates steady at 3.60% but anticipating a cut in November. However, diverging inflation signals, with Q2 showing a quarterly slowdown but August data pointing to a monthly acceleration, have raised the risk of stronger price pressures in Q3, leaving the policy path uncertain. This reaffirmed the cautious, data-driven stance of Governor Michele Bullock, who has consistently emphasized the bank’s commitment to its 2–3% inflation target.

周一，澳元上涨至0.655美元左右，投资者在澳大利亚储备银行（Reserve Bank of Australia）备受关注的政策公告于明天公布之前做好准备。投资者普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将把官方现金利率（OCR）稳定在3.60%，而11月会议上普遍预计将降息25个基点。到2025年为止，澳大利亚储备银行已经三次降息。尽管有所放松，但行长米歇尔·布洛克继续强调谨慎和数据驱动的方法，重申该行对2-3%通胀目标的承诺。第二季度的CPI证实通胀继续缓解，整体通胀率从2.4%降至2.1%，削减后的平均CPI从2.9%降至2.7%。然而，8月份的月度CPI从2.8%微升至3.0%，令一些人感到惊讶。与此同时，投资者期待着明天公布的一系列经济数据，包括建筑许可证、住房数据、PMI和贸易统计数据。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.655 on Monday as investors positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s closely watched policy announcement due tomorrow. Investors largely expect the RBA to keep the official cash rate (OCR) steady at 3.60%, while a 25 basis point cut is widely anticipated at the November meeting. So far in 2025, the RBA has delivered three rate cuts. Despite the easing, Governor Michele Bullock continues to emphasize a cautious and data-driven approach, reaffirming the bank’s commitment to its 2–3% inflation target. The CPI for Q2 confirmed that inflation continues to ease, with headline inflation slowing to 2.1% from 2.4% and the trimmed mean CPI easing to 2.7% from 2.9%. However, August’s monthly CPI surprised some by ticking up slightly to 3.0% from 2.8%. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to a series of economic data due tomorrow, including building permits, housing figures, PMIs, and trade statistics.

澳大利亚政府周日表示，截至2025年6月的一年，澳大利亚的预算赤字略低于100亿澳元（约65.5亿美元），约占国内生产总值的0.4%，结束了两年罕见的预算盈余。工党政府补充说，2024/25年最终预算结果的最新数据小于财政部和财政部今年早些时候预测的279亿澳元赤字。政府表示，预算状况的改善归因于银行收入的增加、实际支出的限制和成本的节省。据路透社报道，财政部长吉姆·查尔莫斯在一份声明中表示：“这提醒我们，我们的预算是G20中最强劲的预算之一。”。澳大利亚在截至2024年6月的一年中实现了158亿澳元的盈余，此前该国在截至2023年6月时实现了221亿澳元的赤字，这是该国15年来的首次预算盈余。

Australia registered a budget deficit of just under A$10 billion (approximately $6.55 billion), or about 0.4% of GDP, for the year ending June 2025, the government said on Sunday, snapping two rare years of budget surpluses. The latest figures from the Final Budget Outcome 2024/25 were smaller than the A$27.9 billion deficit forecast earlier this year by the Treasury and Finance Department, the Labor government added. The improved budget position was attributed to upgraded banking revenue, real spending restraint, and cost savings, the government said. “It’s a reminder that we have one of the strongest budgets in the G20,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a statement, as reported by Reuters. Australia logged a surplus of A$15.8 billion for the year ending June 2024, following a surplus of A$22.1 billion for the year ending June 2023 — the country’s first budget surplus in 15 years.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周一上涨0.7%，至8845点，延续了上周的涨幅，黄金和银行业表现强劲。在大宗商品价格强劲的推动下，澳大利亚黄金股上涨近1%，创下历史新高。值得注意的是，纽蒙特公司上涨2.4%，而Evolution Mining上涨2.5%。银行业也为市场的积极势头做出了贡献，因为投资者在明天央行关键利率决定之前做好了准备。澳大利亚联邦银行上涨1%，澳大利亚国民银行上涨1.2%，西太平洋银行上涨1.4%，澳新银行集团控股有限公司上涨0.9%。与此同时，投资者展望了一系列关键经济指标，特别是建筑许可证、住房数据、采购经理人指数和贸易数据，这些指标可能会进一步影响对利率前景的预期。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to 8,845 on Monday, extending gains from the previous week, supported by strong performances in the gold and banking sectors. Australian gold stocks gained nearly 1%, reaching a record high, driven by robust commodity prices. Notably, Newmont Corporation rose 2.4%, while Evolution Mining advanced 2.5%. The banking sector also contributed to the market's positive momentum as investors positioned themselves ahead of a key central bank interest rate decision tomorrow. Commonwealth Bank of Australia added 1%, National Australia Bank gained 1.2%, Westpac Banking Corporation rose 1.4%, and ANZ Group Holdings Limited up 0.9%. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to a series of key economic indicators, particularly building permits, housing data, PMI figures, and trade data, which could further shape expectations around the interest rate outlook.