欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周四美元小幅走强。美元继续看到很多噪音导致非农工资公告，这很有道理。在所有条件相同的情况下，市场或多或少会处于“持有模式”，直到我们得到这些就业数据。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Strengthens Slightly on Thursday.The US dollar continues to see a lot of noise leading to the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, which makes a lot of sense. The markets will more or less be in a “holding pattern” until we get those jobs figures, all things being equal.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数上涨1%，收于8827点，从金融和矿商领跌的连续四个交易日的下跌中反弹。市场情绪也受到强于预期的贸易平衡数据的提振，7月份贸易平衡数据飙升至73.1亿澳元，远高于预期，出口增长3.3%，达到21个月高点，进口下降1.3%。第二季度强劲的经济增长也降低了对澳大利亚储备银行即将降息的预期，使金融板块上涨1.7%，达到6月24日以来的最佳水平。其中，四大银行各上涨约2%，因为更高的利率支持净息差和盈利能力。在铁矿石和铜价走强的推动下，权重矿商也有所上涨，力拓和Fortescue分别上涨2.3%和1.8%。此外，华尔街科技股隔夜反弹提振了悉尼科技股，施乐有限公司领涨4.8%。与此同时，在获利回吐导致金价下跌后，黄金股下跌。

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1% to close at 8,827 on Thursday, rebounding from a four-session losing streak, led by financials and miners. Market sentiment was also boosted by stronger-than-expected trade balance data, which surged to AUD 7.31 billion in July, well above expectations, driven by a 3.3% rise in exports to a 21-month high and a 1.3% decline in imports. Stronger Q2 economic growth also reduced expectations of an imminent RBA rate cut, lifting the financials sector 1.7% to its best since June 24. Within that, all the Big Four banks gained around 2% each, as higher rates support net interest margins and profitability. Heavyweight miners also advanced, with Rio Tinto and Fortescue climbing 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, on the back of stronger iron ore and copper prices. Additionally, a tech-driven rally on Wall Street overnight lifted tech stocks in Sydney, with Xero Limited leading by 4.8%. Meanwhile, gold stocks declined after bullion eases amid profit-taking.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.36%，在上一交易日触及一个半月高点，得益于强于预期的GDP数据。6月季度经济增长0.6%，超过了0.5%的增长预期，并将年增长率提升到近两年来的最快水平，主要受家庭消费的推动。这一意外上涨增强了人们对澳大利亚储备银行将在本月晚些时候维持利率不变的预期。今天公布的其他数据支持了这一观点。澳大利亚7月份的商品贸易顺差从6月份的53.7亿澳元扩大到73.1亿澳元，出口增长3.3%，进口下降1.3%。与此同时，继6月份增长4.6%之后，7月份家庭支出同比增长5.1%，为2023年11月以来的最高增长。周三，澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克警告称，如果消费者支出继续快速增长，可能不太可能进一步降息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.36%, having touched a one-and-a-half-month high in the previous session on the back of stronger-than-expected GDP data. The economy expanded 0.6% in the June quarter, topping forecasts of a 0.5% gain and lifting the annual growth to its fastest pace in nearly two years, driven primarily by household consumption. The upside surprise reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates on hold later this month. Additional data released today supported this view. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to A$7.31 billion in July from A$5.37 billion in June, as exports rose 3.3% while imports fell 1.3%. At the same time, household spending climbed 5.1% year-on-year in July, the highest growth since November 2023, following a 4.6% rise in June. On Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that further interest rate cuts may be unlikely if consumer spending continues to rise rapidly.

周四，澳元兑美元汇率几乎没有变化，保持了最近的涨幅，受到强于预期的贸易平衡数据的支撑。澳大利亚7月份的商品贸易顺差扩大至73.1亿澳元，为17个月来最大，远高于50亿澳元的预期。这一改善是由6月份强劲增长后出口增长3.3%至460.2亿澳元的21个月高点推动的，而进口下降1.3%至387.1亿澳元，受非货币黄金需求疲软的影响。澳元还受到最近公布的第二季度GDP增长乐观数据的支撑，这加强了人们对澳大利亚储备银行将在9月底保持利率稳定的押注。随着政策制定者监测到劳动力市场逐渐从充分就业中放松，市场互换定价的可能性接近90%。在其他地方，美元在7月JOLTS职位空缺疲软后挣扎，交易员现在关注每周失业救济申请人数、ADP就业数据和ISM服务业PMI。

The Australian dollar was little changed to around $0.654 on Thursday, holding its recent gains, supported by stronger-than-expected trade balance figures. Australia’s goods trade surplus widened to AUD 7.31 billion in July, the largest in 17 months and well above expectations of AUD 5.0 billion. The improvement was driven by a 3.3% rise in exports to a 21-month high of AUD 46.02 billion, following strong gains in June, while imports fell 1.3% to AUD 38.71 billion, weighed by softer demand for non-monetary gold. The Aussie also drew support from recent data showing upbeat Q2 GDP growth, reinforcing bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates steady in late September. Market swaps priced in a nearly 90% odds of no change as policymakers monitor a labor market gradually easing from full employment. Elsewhere, the US dollar struggles after weaker July JOLTS job openings, with traders now eyeing weekly jobless claims, ADP employment data, and the ISM Services PMI later.