标准普尔/澳交所200指数周三下跌0.2%，至8520点左右，这是连续第二个交易日下跌，地缘政治风险上升，国内主要劳动力数据公布前持谨慎态度。伊朗-以色列冲突已进入第六天，据报道，美国总统特朗普考虑对伊朗领导人发动袭击，并要求“无条件投降”，这引发了人们对更广泛的地区升级的担忧。在国内，交易员等待周四公布的5月劳动力数据，这可能会对澳大利亚储备银行的政策前景产生重大影响——疲软的数据可能会助长降息的希望，而强劲的就业增长可能会推迟宽松措施。在企业方面，权重矿商领跌，该子指数下跌1.5%，至一个月低点，因中东紧张局势导致铜价下跌。矿业巨头必和必拓集团下跌1.2%，铁矿石生产商力拓下跌0.4%。黄金股也因获利回吐而下跌0.8%。相比之下，能源股在油价飙升的支撑下上涨，伍德赛德和桑托斯各上涨0.8%。

The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to around 8,520 on Wednesday, marking its second straight session of losses amid rising geopolitical risks and caution ahead of key domestic labor data. The Iran-Israel conflict entered its sixth day, with US President Trump reportedly considering a strike on Iran’s leader and demanding “unconditional surrender,” raising fears of a wider regional escalation. Domestically, traders await the May labor data due Thursday, which could significantly impact the RBA policy outlook—a soft print may fuel hopes for a rate cut, while strong employment gains could delay easing measures. On the corporate side, heavyweight miners led losses, with the sub-index down 1.5% to a one-month low as copper prices slipped on Middle East tensions. Mining giant BHP Group dropped 1.2%, while iron ore producer Rio Tinto slid 0.4%. Gold stocks also fell 0.8% amid profit-taking. In contrast, energy stocks rose, supported by a surge in oil prices, as Woodside and Santos each advanced 0.8%.

西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所澳大利亚领先经济指数在上个月持平后，于2025年5月小幅下跌0.1%。与此同时，六个月的年化增长率从0.19%降至0.08%，这表明外部拖累势头的因素现在越来越多地来自国内。然而，其中一些压力可能是暂时的。总体而言，数据表明澳大利亚的逐步复苏处于脆弱阶段。西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观预测主管Matthew Hassan表示，到2025年底，国内生产总值预计将同比增长1.7%，略低于此前的预测，也低于历史平均水平。他指出，全球经济增长放缓和贸易政策的不确定性与国内转型的坎坷相吻合，因为政府刺激措施减弱，私人需求仍然疲软。展望7月7日至8日的会议，西太平洋银行预计储备银行将保持利率稳定，在更新经济预测后，8月份可能降息25个基点。

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia edged down 0.1% in May 2025, after a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate fell to 0.08% from 0.19%, suggesting that external drags on momentum are now increasingly domestic. However, some of these pressures may prove temporary. Overall, the data point to a fragile phase in Australia's gradual recovery. Westpac’s head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, Matthew Hassan, said that GDP growth is expected to reach 1.7% year-on-year by end-2025, slightly lower than earlier projections and below historical averages. He noted that weaker global growth and trade policy uncertainty are coinciding with a bumpy domestic transition, as government stimulus wanes and private demand remains subdued. Looking ahead to the July 7–8 meeting, Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to keep rates steady, with a potential 25 bps cut in August following updated economic forecasts.

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周二早盘美元平静。美元和其他许多货币在周二早盘的大部分时间里都很平静。在这一点上，我们正在等待下一个主要标题是什么，它将推动交易者朝着一个方向或另一个方向发展。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Quiet in Early Tuesday Session.The US dollar, and many other currencies in general, were all quiet for the most part in early Tuesday trading. At this point, we are waiting to see what the next major headline will be that pushes traders in one direction or the other.

澳元/日元价格预测：突破94.50，阻力位出现在三个月高点附近。澳元/日元连续第二天上涨，周二欧洲时间交易在94.60左右。根据日线图的技术分析，货币交叉仍处于上升通道模式，证实了持续的看涨倾向。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Moves above 94.50, resistance appears near three-month highs.AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 94.60 during the European hours on Tuesday. As per the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross remains within an ascending channel pattern, confirming a sustained bullish bias.